【2014】Enterprise Integration and Information Architecture: A Systems Perspective on Industrial Information Integration https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3571417-1-1.html 声明: 本资源仅供学术研究参考之用,发布者不负任何法律责任,敬请下载者支持购买正版。 提倡免费分享! 我发全部免费的,分文不收 来看看 ... 你也可关注我 https://bbs.pinggu.org/z_guanzhu.php?action=listattentionfuid=3727866
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Triffin's Dilemma: The 2014 Edition Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/05/2014 20:09 -0500 Ben Bernanke Borrowing Costs Brazil Central Banks Federal Reserve fixed Foreign Central Banks Gross Domestic Product India Japan Moral Hazard Recession Reserve Currency Trade Balance Trade Deficit Turkey in Share 1 Submitted by Shane Obata-Marusic of Triggers ( pdf ) Triffin's Dilemma: The 2014 Edition What does it mean to be the world’s reserve currency? Everbank’s Chuck Butler sums it up nicely in the following quote : “Remember, the country with the reserve currency gets to receive loans at discounted borrowing costs. Also, commodities are priced in the reserve currency, meaning central banks around the world must hold the currency in their reserves to facilitate trade.” Furthermore , “Trading nations need dollars to lubricate trading and as foreign exchange reserves that bolster the value of their own currency and provide the asset base for the expansion of credit within their own nation” Many different currencies have held reserve status throughout history. This is important to note because it goes to show that, just like everything else, reserve currency status doesn’t last forever. At present, the US dollar is the world’s main reserve currency. That status has been a gift for the US: it has allowed it to run a deficit in perpetuity. But it has also been a curse : “The demand for safe assets feeds tha t exorbitant privilege enjoyed by the United States. This contributes to a weakening of US policy discipline as the country tends to excessively rely on easy credit in normal times and very expansionary macroeconomic policies in times of crisis. The outcome is excessive US indebtedness. The corporate sector was in debt prior to the burst of the dot-com bubble in 2001; so were the household and financial sectors before the eruption of the sub-prime crisis in 2007-08; and the official sector is in debt today.” Moving on. Let’s assume for a moment that the US recovers, the dollar appreciates in value relative to other currencies, the trade deficit shrinks, and QE comes to end. That all sounds good, right? Yes, but maybe not for other countries – specifically those with current account deficits. The end of easy money and artificially low interest rates will not bode well for the emerging markets. The “faulty five” – aka the “BI ITS” – Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa are particularly vulnerable because they rely on external financing to operate. A stronger USD has multiple negative implications for their economies. Before we continue let’s introduce the idea of Triffin’s Dilemma. And now for a bit of history: “Prior to the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement, central banks used gold as the asset to back their currencies. By the end of World War I I , the United States had established itself as the world’s creditor and largest holders of gold. Under the 1 944 Bretton Woods agreement, the US Dollar was fully backed by gold at a fixed value of 1 /35th an ounce per dollar, and foreign Central Banks could use US Dollar assets as reserves backing their currency, in lieu of gold. This agreement avoided the inevitable deflationary pressure a return to pre-war gold/currency ratios would have forced just as Europe was beginning to rebuild, and allowed US debt held abroad to be used as an asset by central banks against their local currencies. (- Zero Hedge) After WW I I , America was the only industrialized country still intact. Through the Marshall Plan and rebuilding Japan and later South Korea, America was lending huge amounts of dollars to other countries, which in turn were used to collateralize their own currencies. America was able to run huge trade surpluses and our economy was booming. But, then Triffin’s Dilemma came into play. The demand for dollars around the world exceeded America’s ability to back it with gold. Those sneaky folks at the Federal Reserve printed more dollars anyway. And, when other countries figured out what was happening there was a run on America’s gold reserves and so President Richard Nixon had no choice but to stop backing the dollar with gold. However, the dollar remained the world’s reserve currency because of the size and strength of the US economy. ” ( Source ) Despite the fact the US dollar is still the world’s reserve currency, “The IMS is not in a better situation today. The quandary under the BW system – the lack of a credible anchor for international monetary and financial stability – continues to exist. Key issuers and holders of reserve currencies pursue domestic objectives independently of what would best serve the global system and even their longer-run interest. To the extent that these policies pay insufficient attention to negative externalities for other countries and longer-term macroeconomic and financial stability concerns, they tend to produce unsustainable imbalances and fuel vulnerability in the global financial system. In particular, a large body of literature supports the view that a worldwide glut of both liquidity and planned savings over investment – stemming from, respectively, reserve-issuing and reserve- accumulating economies – was a key driver of the hazardous environment at the root of the global financial and economic crisis which broke out in summer 2007” ( Source ) Will Triffin’s dilemma be relevant again in 2014 and going forward? Many people believe that it will. The US is now producing a lot more energy and importing a lot less - on a net basis. This is causing their trade deficit – which has been negative for the better part of 50 years – to shrink. If we think of the trade balance as part of the supply of US dollars then – as a result of the dollar’s world reserve currency status – a reduction in the trade deficit means fewer US dollars leaving the country. This has implications for other countries because they use USDs to buy US assets and for reserves. Triffin’s Dilemma is that the country that issues the world’s reserve currency will have to choose between: 1 ) running a trade deficit in perpetuity - risking of a loss of confidence in its currency and solvency while the rest of the world enjoys an adequate supply of USDs. or 2) running a trade surplus and enjoying an appreciation in the value of the dollar while the rest of the world suffers from a lack of liquidity and collateral. Either way, there are negative implications for world growth. In the first example – in which the US runs a trade deficit in perpetuity – the US continues to add to its debt and risks undermining its ability to pay off that debt. In the second example – in which the US runs a trade surplus – emerging market currencies are put under pressure by the USD potentially leading to capital outflows, a higher cost of debt, and global financial instability. When Bernanke first mentioned the possibility of a reduction in asset purchases in May of 2013, emerging market currencies – in particular the BIITS – sold off in a big way. At the same time, GDP forecasts for the emerging markets (started to get) (were) revised downwards. That was the tell. What I mean is that that’s when we first got a glimpse of what would happen if and when this giant monetary experiment came to an end. In other words, the end of easy money isn’t going to be easy. If emerging market currencies continue to depreciate then the relative value of the cash flows of companies that operate within those countries will fall. In that case, it’s likely that net capital outflows from those markets would continue. This flight of capital could force emerging market countries to increase their interest rates in an attempt to remain competitive for acquiring external financing. With more money going towards interest payments, growth will be limited even further. What’s more is that an increase in the relative value of the USD will cause the price of imports, financial assets, and external debt to rise in local currency terms. Lastly, and arguably most importantly, a smaller trade deficit or trade surplus will result in a reduction in foreign exchange reserves held at emerging market central banks. Source As those banks use their dollar reserves to buy back their domestic currencies in an effort to curb inflation they will 1 ) reduce their ability to “protect” their currency in the future and 2) reduce the asset base against which bank reserves are backed. In conclusion, the falling trade deficit in the US is likely to increase the relative value of the dollar. If, in addition to an improving balance of trade, the fed continues to taper its asset purchases, then it’s likely that emerging market currencies and ETFs will face increasingly negative pressures. Source Basically, there is no easy way out of this giant moral hazard driven debt bubble that the world’s central banks, and in particular the fed, have created. I am hoping for the best but I’m not sure how this will play out. The entire world is in way over its head in debt... Source And somehow, whether it’s deliberate or forced, we need to get rid of it all. Source What used to be known as the business cycle – i.e. a cycle wherein a period of expansion is followed by a recession which cleanses the system of malinvestment – doesn’t exist anymore. Currently, the entire economic system is centrally planned. Instead of letting the nature run its course, the world’s “best and brightest” minds in economics – the central bankers – have decided to try and outsmart it. I f the US continues to operate without regard to the effects on the rest of the world, then world growth will be negatively affected. Triffin’s dilemma: the 201 4 edition might turn out to be a prime example of the negative consequences of keeping money too easy for too long – i.e. suppressing interest rates and monetizing deficits. Unfortunately, policies that were intended to “smooth out” the economic cycle have only resulted in bigger booms and busts. Source Someone’s going to be left holding the bag. Try not to let it be you. Average: 4.8 Your rating: None Average: 4.8 ( 5 votes)
14 Facts About The Absolutely Crazy Internet Stock Bubble That Could Crash And Burn In 2014 By Michael Snyder, on November 5th, 2013 Shouldn't Internet companies actually "make a profit" at some point before being considered worth billions of dollars? A lot of investors laugh when they look back at the foolishness of the "Dotcom bubble" of the late 1990s, but the tech bubble that is inflating right in front of our eyes today is actually far worse. For example, what would you say if I told you that a seven-year-old company that has a long history of not being profitable and that actually lost 64 million dollars last quarter is worth more than 13 billion dollars ? You would probably say that I was insane, but the company that I have just described is Twitter and Wall Street is going crazy for it right now. Please don't get me wrong - I actually love Twitter. On my Twitter account I have sent out thousands of "tweets". Twitter is a lot of fun, and it has had a huge impact on the entire planet. But is it worth 13 billion dollars? Of course not. When it comes to the Internet, what is hot today will probably not be hot tomorrow. Do you remember MySpace? At one time, MySpace was considered to be the undisputed king of social media. But then something better came along (Facebook) and killed it. It is important to keep in mind that Facebook did not even exist ten years ago. Yes, almost everybody is using it today, but will everybody still be using it a decade from now? Maybe. But the way that the financial markets are valuing these firms can only be justified if they are going to make absolutely massive profits for many decades to come. Will Twitter eventually make a little bit of money? Probably, as long as they get their act together. In fact, Twitter should be making significant amounts of money right now if it was being run correctly. But will Twitter ever make 13 billion dollars? No, that simply is not going to happen. But that is what Wall Street says that Twitter is worth. The utter foolishness that we are witnessing on Wall Street right now is so similar to what we saw back in the late 1990s. It is almost as if we have learned nothing from our past mistakes. These days I keep having flashbacks of the Pets.com sock puppet. For those too young to remember, the following is a brief summary from Investopedia about what happened to Pets.com... It's impossible to think of the first Internet era without thinking of the Pets.com sock puppet. He was everywhere and was nearly as well-known as the Geico gecko is today. That familiarity, in part, persuaded many investors to lay down money in the company's February 2000 IPO (which was backed by Amazon.com). Pets.com raised $82.5 million – but nine months later it folded, due to major recurring losses. Part of the reason for that was aggressive advertising, but the company also lost money on virtually every item it sold. In the third quarter of 2000, Pets.com reported negative gross margins of $277,000. (The second quarter had seen a $1.7 million margin loss.) That same quarter (its last full quarter as an operating entity), the company lost $21.7 million on $9.4 million in revenue. As for the puppet, he went on to shill for BarNone, which helps people with bad credit histories get car loans. He's still there today, front and center on that website. Everyone loves to laugh at the poor little sock puppet, but the truth is that the tech bubble that is inflating right now is far worse than the Dotcom bubble of the late 1990s. The following are 14 facts about the current tech bubble that will blow your mind... #1 In just a few days, the Twitter IPO is expected to raise close to 2 billion dollars even though Twitter actually lost 64.6 million dollars last quarter and has a long history of not being profitable. #2 It is being projected that after the IPO Twitter could have a market valuation of more than 13 billion dollars . #3 Twitter is not expected to make a profit until 2015 at the earliest. #4 According to CNBC, Pinterest is currently valued at 3.8 billion dollars even though it has never earned a profit. #5 Yahoo paid more than a billion dollars for Tumblr even though Tumblr's revenues are so small that Yahoo is not even required to report them on financial statements. #6 Snapchat, an Internet service that allows people to send out messages that "self-destruct", is supposedly worth 4 billion dollars . But it actually has zero revenue coming in, and many believe that it is essentially worthless as a money making enterprise. For one extensive analysis by a tech blogger, please see this article . #7 The stock of Rocket Fuel, an online advertising company, is trading at about 60 dollars a share and it has a market valuation of about 2 billion dollars even though it has never made a profit. #8 The stock of local business review website Yelp is up 241 percent this year even though it has never earned a quarterly profit. #9 Fab.com just raised 165 million dollars from investors even though it recently laid off 44o employees. #10 LinkedIn stock has risen in price by 136 percent since the 2011 IPO, and it is now supposedly worth more than 18 billion dollars . #11 The head of engineering at Twitter, Chris Fry, got a 10.3 million dollar pay package when he joined Twitter last year. #12 Facebook's VP of engineering, Mike Schroepfer, earned 24.4 million dollars in 2011. #13 Office rents in San Francisco (where many of these tech companies are based) are now 23 percent higher than they were at the peak of the real estate market in 2008. #14 Facebook stock is up close to 140 percent over the past 12 months and the company is now worth more than 120 billion dollars . And I am certainly not the only one that is concerned that we are repeating the mistakes of the late 1990s... “When you look at valuations and look at the lack of earnings and revenue, it seems to me much like the dot-com bubble,” said Matt McCormick, a money manager at Cincinnati-based Bahl Gaynor Inc. who helps oversee $10.2 billion. “This market looks a little frothy and Twitter is the personification of a risky trade.” In fact, as the Wall Street Journal recently noted , we have seen some of these tech stocks crash more than once during the Internet age... "It's fascinating to me that today's mini-mania includes shares of Amazon, Netflix and Priceline that have previously peaked and crashed before—in some cases they've peaked and crashed twice before," says Darren Pollock, portfolio manager at Cheviot Value Management. "Stocks like these have again captured the imagination of speculators. We're skeptical that there is enough underlying intrinsic value to many of the highfliers to support today's prices." So how long will it be until the current tech bubble implodes?