Chapter 8 This covers the important topic of volatility and correlation modelling and forecasting . This chapter starts by discussing in general terms the issue of non-linearity in financial time series . The class of ARCH (AutoRegressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic) models and the motivation for this formulation are then discussed. Other models are also presented, including extensions of the basic model such as GARCH, GARCH-M, EGARCH and GJR formulations . Examples of the huge number of applications are discussed, with particular reference to stock returns. Multivariate GARCH models are described, and applications to the estimation of conditional betas and time-varying hedge ratios, and to financial risk measurement, are given. Chapter 9 This discusses testing for and modelling regime shifts or switches of behaviour in financial series that can arise from changes in government policy, market trading conditions or microstructure , among other causes. This chapter introduces the Markov switching approach to dealing with regime shifts. Threshold autoregression is also discussed, along with issues relating to the estimation of such models. Examples include the modelling of exchange rates within a managed floating environment, modelling and forecasting the gilt--equity yield ratio, and models of movements of the difference between spot and futures prices. Chapter 10 This new chapter focuses on how to deal appropriately with longitudinal data -- that is, data having both time series and cross-sectional dimensions. Fixed effect and random effect models are explained and illustrated by way of examples on banking competition in the UK and on credit stability in Central and Eastern Europe. Entity fixed and time-fixed effects models are elucidated and distinguished. Chapter 11 The second new chapter describes various models that are appropriate for situations where the dependent variable is not continuous. Readers will learn how to construct, estimate and interpret such models, and to distinguish and select between alternative specifications. Examples used include a test of the pecking order hypothesis in corporate finance and the modelling of unsolicited credit ratings. Chapter 12 This presents an introduction to the use of simulations in econometrics and finance . Motivations are given for the use of repeated sampling, and a distinction is drawn between Monte Carlo simulation and bootstrapping .The reader is shown how to set up a simulation, and examples are given in options pricing and financial risk management to demonstrate the usefulness of these techniques. Chapter 13 This offers suggestions related to conducting a project or dissertation in empirical finance. It introduces the sources of financial and economic data available on the Internet and elsewhere, and recommends relevant online information and literature on research in financial markets and financial time series. The chapter also suggests ideas for what might constitute a good structure for a dissertation on this subject, how to generate ideas for a suitable topic, what format the report could take, and some common pitfalls. Chapter 14 This summarises the book and concludes. Several recent developments in the field, which are not covered elsewhere in the book, are also mentioned. Some tentative suggestions for possible growth areas in the modelling of financial time series are also given.
Figure 1： Excitation energy as a function of various nuclear variables. The secondary energy minima are responsible for the different kinds of isomers: a, shape isomers; b, spin traps; c, K-traps. In each case, the relevant nuclear shapes are illustrated; where appropriate, angular momentum vectors are shown as arrows. For both the spin trap and the K-trap, the angular momentum comes from a small number of orbiting nucleons (two are illustrated in red in each case).
29 Incredible Facts Which Prove That Poverty In America Is Absolutely Exploding By Michael Snyder, on October 27th, 2013 Did you know that the number of Americans on welfare is higher than the number of Americans that have full-time jobs? Did you know that 1.2 million public school students in the U.S. are currently homeless? Anyone that uses the term "economic recovery" to describe what is happening in the United States today is being deeply insulting to the nearly 150 million Americans that are considered to be either "poor" or "low income" at this point. Yes, things are great in New York City, Washington D.C. and San Francisco, but almost everywhere else economic conditions continue to steadily get worse. The gap between the wealthy and the poor is at a level that America has never seen before, and this is beginning to create a "Robin Hood mentality" that could cause a tremendous amount of social chaos in the years ahead. Anger at the "haves" in America continues to rise at a very alarming pace, and the "have nots" are becoming increasingly desperate . At some point all of this anger is going to boil over, and you won't want to be anywhere around major population centers when that happens. Despite unprecedented borrowing by the federal government in recent years, and despite unprecedented money printing by the Federal Reserve, poverty in the United States keeps getting worse with each passing year. The following are 29 incredible facts which prove that poverty in America is absolutely exploding... 1. What can you say about a nation that has more people getting handouts from the federal government than working full-time? According to the latest numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of people receiving means-tested welfare benefits is greater than the number of full-time workers in the United States. 2. New numbers have just been released, and they show that the number of public school students in this country that are homeless is at an all-time record high. It is hard to believe, but right now 1.2 million students that attend public schools in America are homeless. That number has risen by 72 percent since the start of the last recession. 3. When I was growing up, it seemed like almost everyone was from a middle class home. But now that has all changed . One recent study discovered that nearly half of all public students in the United States come from low income homes. 4. How can anyone deny that we are a socialist nation when half the people are getting money from the federal government each month? According to the most recent numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau, 49.2 percent of all Americans are receiving benefits from at least one government program. 5. Signs of increasing poverty are even showing up in the wealthiest areas of the nation. According to the New York Post, New York subways are being " overrun with homeless ". 6. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, approximately one out of every six Americans is now living in poverty. The number of Americans living in poverty is now at a level not seen since the 1960s. 7. The gap between the rich and the poor in the United States is at an all-time record high . The wealthy may not consider this to be much of a problem, but those at the other end of the spectrum are very aware of this. 8. The "working poor" is one of the fastest growing segments of the U.S. population. At this point, approximately one out of every four part-time workers in America is living below the poverty line. 9. According to numbers provided by Wal-Mart , more than half of their hourly workers make less than $25,000 a year. 10. A recent Businessweek article mentioned a study that discovered that 300 employees at one Wal-Mart in Wisconsin receive a combined total of nearly a million dollars a year in public assistance... “A decent wage is their demand—a livable wage, of all things,” said Representative George Miller (D-Calif.). The problem with companies like Wal-Mart is their “unwillingness, not their inability, to pay that wage,” he said. “They hand off the difference to taxpayers.” Miller was referring to a congressional report (PDF)released in May that calculated how much Walmart workers rely on public assistance. The study found that the 300 employees at one Supercenter in Wisconsin required some $900,000 worth of public assistance a year. 11. The stock market may be doing great (for the moment), but incomes for average Americans continue to decline. In fact, median household income in the United States has fallen for five years in a row . 12. The quality of the jobs in America has been steadily dropping for years. At this point, one out of every four American workers has a job that pays $10 an hour or less. 13. According to a Gallup poll that was recently released, 20.0% of all Americans did not have enough money to buy food that they or their families needed at some point over the past year. That is just under the record of 20.4% that was set back in November 2008. 14. Young adults are particularly feeling the sting of poverty these days. American families that have a head of household that is under the age of 30 have a poverty rate of 37 percent . 15. As I wrote about a few weeks ago, one out of every five households in the United States is on food stamps. Back in the 1970s, about one out of every 50 Americans was on food stamps. 16. The number of Americans on food stamps now exceeds the entire population of Spain . 17. According to one calculation , the number of Americans on food stamps now exceeds the combined populations of "Alaska, Arkansas, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming." 18. We are told that we live in the "wealthiest nation" on the planet, and yet more than one out of every four children in the United States is enrolled in the food stamp program. 19. The average food stamp benefit breaks down to approximately $4 per person per day . 20. It is being projected that approximately 50 percent of all U.S. children will be on food stamps before they reach the age of 18. 21. Today, approximately 17 million children in the United States are facing food insecurity. In other words, that means that "one in four children in the country is living without consistent access to enough nutritious food to live a healthy life." 22. It may be hard to believe, but approximately 57 percent of all children in the United States are currently living in homes that are considered to be either "low income" or impoverished. 23. The number of children living on $2.00 a day or less in the United States has grown to 2.8 million . That number has increased by 130 percent since 1996. 24. In Miami, 45 percent of all children are living in poverty. 25. In Cleveland, more than 50 percent of all children are living in poverty. 26. According to a recently released report, 60 percent of all children in the city of Detroit are living in poverty. 27. According to a Feeding America hunger study, more than 37 million Americans are now being served by food pantries and soup kitchens. 28. The U.S. government has spent an astounding 3.7 trillion dollars on welfare programs over the past five years. 29. It has been reported that 4 out of every 5 adults in the United States "struggle with joblessness, near-poverty or reliance on welfare for at least parts of their lives". These poverty numbers keep getting worse year after year no matter what our politicians do. So is there anyone out there that would still like to argue that we are in an "economic recovery"? And as I mentioned above, the "have nots" are becoming increasingly angry at the "haves". For example, just check out the following excerpt from a recent New York Post article ... The maniac who butchered a Brooklyn mom and her four young kids confessed that he did it because he was jealous of their way of life, a police source told The Post on Sunday. “ The family had too much. Their income (and) lifestyle was better than his ,” the source said. The bloody suspect was caught holding the kitchen knife he used during the Saturday night rampage inside the Sunset Park apartment where he had been staying with the victims, the source added. Sadly, this was not an isolated incident. All over the western world, a "Robin Hood mentality" is growing. This is something that I am so concerned about that I made it a big part of my new book. At this point, even wealthy Hollywood-types such as actor Russell Brand are calling for a socialist-style "revolution" and a " massive redistribution of wealth ". Perhaps Brand does not understand that what he is calling for would mean redistributing most of his own wealth away from him. When the next major wave of the economic collapse strikes, I fear that all of this anger and frustration that are growing among the poor will boil over in some very frightening ways. I believe that we will see a huge spike in crime and that we will eventually see communities all over America looted and burning. But I am not the only one that is thinking along these lines. A new National Geographic Channel movie entitled "American Blackout" attempts to portray the social chaos that could erupt in the event of an extended national power failure ... American Blackout, National Geographic Channel’s two-hour, edge-of-your-seat movie event imagines the story of a national power failure in the United States caused by a cyberattack — told in real time, over 10 days, by those who kept filming on cameras and phones. You’ll learn what it means to be absolutely powerless. You can view a clip of the film that was made available by NatGeo for the SHTFplan.com community right here . What would you do if something like that happened to you? How would you handle desperate, hungry people at your fence asking for food? And what if those people were armed and were not "asking nicely" for your food? Don't ignore what is happening in America right now. It is setting the stage for some very chaotic times. Get ready while you still can.
JPMorgan Advises To... Buy Gold? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/16/2013 09:05 -0400 China India Musical Chairs None Precious Metals Price Action World Gold Council With the ongoing musical chairs at the COMEX ( focused on JPMorgan's volatile holdings ), the bank's precious metals team now sees a number of reasons to be long gold. Noting the market's shrugging off of Paulson's unwind ("delivering an exclamation mark to define the end of the fall in gold stocks"), JPMorgan (ironically) suggests the questionable price action in the paper markets in light of unprecedented physical demand combined with the seasonal positives (and physical supply restrictions) all points to "getting long the gold space," with gold and silver miners offering value. The question remains, given that none of these are 'new' facts, why the change of heart now (especially as JPM is also buying)? Via JPMorgan, Gold shrugged off news today that Paulson Co had cut its exchange listed gold exposure in half and rose 2.2% to $1,365/oz. This may be delivering an exclamation mark to define the end of the 10-month, 25% fall in gold and 50% fall in gold equities , (while the SP advanced 13%). The World Gold Council reported today that physical gold demand remains strong, questioning the price weakness seen in paper markets. Additionally, gold supplies could be constrained in September if labor strikes are initiated in South Africa. There’s typically some positive seasonality to the gold price in August/September helped by India, which is still the largest single (28%) gold market. Often this strength correlates with the Denver gold conference. The conference attracts many of the larger gold investors and given the other positives for the metal (and that the depressing effect of the Q2 results is past) we would not be surprised to see a stronger gold price in the run up to the show. We’d encourage shorter-term investors to consider getting long the gold space with a four to five week time horizon. This year the Denver Gold Forum will be from the 22nd to 25th September. The World Gold Council shows that gold demand remains strong. China and India remain large physical buyers of the metal. We believe this highlights that enthusiasm for the metal remains strong amongst the majority of the world’s population. Indian demand is quite seasonal related to events and festivals. While some might argue for less Indian buying due to tougher regulations and the weaker rupee making the metal more expensive, the WGC data suggests the opposite. Perhaps fear of currency weakness lifts buying. Paulson Co’s gold purchases in 2010 put the spotlight on the metal, so it’s encouraging to see that the market was not disillusioned today after it was disclosed that this position was cut in half. Perhaps this news was seen positively because the overhang has been removed. The gold market may also have reacted to lower risk of "tapering”. South African gold supply could step down in H2. South African wage negotiations have moved into a mediation phase and could move to plans for strikes by as early as next week. While South African production has fallen and it is now only about 5% of mine supply, production could step down again, given the significant wage demands, which could make parts of the industry there uneconomic. Our favorite gold stocks are Goldcorp (GG), Eldorado (EGO), Newgold (NGD) and Newmont (NEM). Silver often offers higher beta precious metals exposure. Our favorite silver stock is Silver Wheaton (SLW), and Coeur (CDE) and Hecla (HL) offer leverage. Average: 4.8 Your rating: None Average: 4.8 ( 5 votes) !-- -- Tweet !-- - advertisements - .AR_2 .ob_empty {display: none;} .AR_2 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_2 {float: left;width:50%} .AR_2 li {list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;padding-bottom: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_2 .ob_org_header {color: #000000;text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .rec-link {color: #565656;text-decoration: none;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-link:hover {color: #565656;text-decoration: underline;font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 .rec-src-link {font-size: 12px;} .AR_3 li {padding-bottom: 10px;list-style: none outside none !important;font-size: 10px;line-height: 13px;margin:0;} .AR_3 .ob_dual_left, .AR_3 .ob_dual_right {float: left;padding-bottom: 0;padding-left: 2%;padding-top: 0;} .AR_3 .ob_org_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} .AR_3 .ob_ads_header {color: #000000; text-decoration:bold; margin-left: 0px; font-size:14px;line-height:35px;} -- - advertisements - Login or register to post comments 15090 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Eric Sprott: Why Are Investors Buying 50 Times More Physical Silver Than Gold? Portuguese Gold Sale Urged By Senior German Lawmakers As Mexican Central Bank Buys 100 Tonnes Gold Rises $40 As Markets Fall Sharply - Safe Haven "Tipping Point"? Gold Reaches New Record High - News Barely Reported By Mainstream Media Is Gold The Best Hedge Against Tail Risk, When Uber-Wealthy Bank Clients Buy Up Tons Of Physical Gold?
Seasonal Adjustments: Big Swing Factor? Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/03/2012 08:14 -0400 Non Farm Payrolls While Knight's algos will be focusing on the headline number and furiously calculating if is or than and simplistically moving the market up or down accordingly, without regard for quality or composition (they don't call it the Part-Time Non Farm Payrolls for nothing), another key swing factor in July will be the seasonal adjustment. As a reminder, as the chart below shows, in July we experience a major swing event. While in June, seasonal factors typically subtract about 1 million from the headline non-seasonally adjusted headline number, in June we invert, and instead of subtracting, seasonal factors for the first time since April "add" jobs. 295,000 (past decade average) to be exact. How will this impact the actual number? We will find out shortly. One thing to note: of the 100,000 consensus headline adjusted print, the seasonal adjustment factor itself will be roughly three times the actual print that will move the market. In a year of record temperature abnormalities and the "average seasonal adjustment" being anything but, we leave it up to readers to do with this data as they see fit. Average: 3.5 Your rating: None Average: 3.5 ( 2 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 2891 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: As A Reminder, Here Are The Monthly NFP Seasonal Adjustments Today's "Max Pain" - A Stronger Than Expected Non Farm Payrolls Report Previewing Tomorrow's Payroll Report Deciding The Fate Of The Euro July Non Farm Payrolls Slam Expectations At 163,000K, Unemployment Rate 8.Rises To 3% Comment viewing options Flat list - collapsedFlat list - expandedThreaded list - collapsedThreaded list - expanded Date - newest firstDate - oldest first 10 comments per page30 comments per page50 comments per page70 comments per page90 comments per page150 comments per page200 comments per page250 comments per page300 comments per page Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes. Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:17 | 2675218 MillionDollarBoner_ I see fit to call it BS Login or register to post comments Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:25 | 2675239 malikai The purpose of seasonal adjustments is to smoothe the data accordingly, right? Can someone remind me why nobody else can do that? Is it necessary that the government tell us anything other than FACT? Login or register to post comments Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:29 | 2675246 HelluvaEngineer Must.Buy.The.****ing.Dip. Login or register to post comments Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:23 | 2675234 localpacific Market Overview by FXCC Login or register to post comments Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:25 | 2675238 q99x2 Next month I hope somebody gets the information from the secretary so we don't have to guess. Login or register to post comments Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:29 | 2675245 Mr_Wonderful Aug 02 65 Signs That The Economic Collapse Is Already Happening TECB Aug 02 China prepares vast stimulus as slump threatens Asia Telegraph Aug 01 Nature wins GreaterFool Aug 01 The inevitable death of the euro GoldMoney Login or register to post comments Fri, 08/03/2012 - 08:53 | 2675351 Byte Me TD -- I prefer my random number generator. (Thanx anyway) Login or register to post comments var ord = Math.random() * 10000000000000000 ; document.write(''); Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
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