Can you comment on why the theory of Malthusian “Population Trap” was well accepted in his time, but broken-down later? Any implications and insight for making a better population policy in China? Malthus argued that capital productivity, especially land productivity given its central role as the most valuable physical capital in Malthus’ time, decreased as population increased. Increases in technology should, according to Malthus, only increase population, therefore reducing relative income and only reduced fertility could increase income, resulting in a natural limit on population control. While Malthus’ claims were supported by the long term relative stability in the population over ancient history, Malthus could not foresee the independent impact technological advances could have on income, namely that land would in the future not be the most important physical capital and that technology increases capital’s productivity, thus not only increasing the possibility of population increase but also income. Population policy in China should, therefore, not depend on the depressive impact of resources per population mentality of controlling population, but rather focus energy and policy on improving the efficiency of production, which can improve income independent of population growth.
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