sum() total() pc() rowtotal() 下为stata11 Manual中的例子，从上里来看，sum()和total()两个函数是不同的，其中sum()为按照下标动态累加。而total()是求总和。但应该 注意的是这里是stata's sum() VS egen's total()，如果在egen下使用sum()，作用与total()相同。 Distinguish carefully between Stata’s sum()function and egen’s total()function. Stata’s sum()function creates the running sum, whereas egen’s total() function creates a constant equal to the overall sum. For example： clear set obs 5 gen a=_n gen sum1=sum(a) egen sum2=total(a) list 执行结果如下： . do "C:\DOCUME~1\ADMINI~1\LOCALS~1\Temp\STD00000000.tmp" . clear . set obs 5 obs was 0, now 5 . gen a=_n . gen sum1=sum(a) . egen sum2=total(a) end of do-file . list +-----------------+ | a sum1 sum2 | |-----------------| 1. | 1 1 15 | 2. | 2 3 15 | 3. | 3 6 15 | 4. | 4 10 15 | 5. | 5 15 15 | +-----------------+ 如果将上述例子稍微修改，将第四行代码中gen改为egen如下： clear set obs 5 gen a=_n egen sum1=sum(a) egen sum2=total(a) list 执行结果如下： . clear . set obs 5 obs was 0, now 5 . gen a=_n . egen sum1=sum(a) . egen sum2=total(a) end of do-file . list +-----------------+ | a sum1 sum2 | |-----------------| 1. | 1 15 15 | 2. | 2 15 15 | 3. | 3 15 15 | 4. | 4 15 15 | 5. | 5 15 15 | +-----------------+ sum()、total()两个命令的应用： 请问如何用stata命令求在下列四组每个公司在各自行业中的销售额比率？如行业1，先求行业内四个公司的销售总额，然后求A1，A2...各自占行业的份额。 公司 Sales 行业 A1 27.72 1 A2 26.37 1 A3 24.79 1 A4 18.69 1 B1 17.48 2 B2 17.04 2 B3 10.87 2 B4 6.68 2 C1 9.06 3 C2 6.8 3 C3 8.85 3 C4 9.43 3 D1 11.48 4 D2 13.96 4 D3 14.19 4 D4 17.93 4 使用total()或者sum()函数就可以完成这个任务，为避免中文无法识别，将行业变量命名为industry 代码如下： by industry ,sort : egen sale_s=total(Sales) gen ratio=Sales/sale_s 当然，stata中还有一个一直的求所占比率的函数pc(),这个也是egen命令的fnc之一。 改进的命令为： by industry, sort: egen ratio=pc(Sales),prop 关于pc() pc( exp ) (allows by varlist ) returens exp (within varlist) scaled to be a percentage of the total, between 0 and 100. The prop option returns exp scaled to be a proption of the total, between 0 and 1. 此为stata11中egen函数下pc()的说明，从内容来看，pc()这一function可以返回变量某一取值占总和的比重，加上prop这一option之后，可将百分数改为0到1之间的小数。而且，此function可与by连用，从而功能更加强大。 关于rowtotal()： generate’s sum()function creates the vertical, running sum of its argument, whereas egen’stotal()function creates a constant equal to the overall sum. egen’s rowtotal()function, however,creates the horizontal sum of its arguments. They all treat missing as zero. However, if the missingoption is specified with total()or rowtotal(), then newvar will contain missing valuesif allvalues of exp or varlist are missing. 从这段话来看，sum()函数做的是纵向合并，total()函数得到的是最终的和，二rowtotal()函数则是横向求和。三种函数都把缺省值视为数值0。 例子： . webuse egenxmpl4,clear . egen hsum=rowtotal(a b c) . generate vsum=sum(hsum) . egen sum=total(hsum) . list +----------------------------------+ | a b c hsum vsum sum | |----------------------------------| 1. | . 2 3 5 5 63 | 2. | 4 . 6 10 15 63 | 3. | 7 8 . 15 30 63 | 4. | 10 11 12 33 63 63 | +----------------------------------+ end of do-file 这个例子生动的展示了sum() total() rowtotal() 之间的区别。
"The Buyback Party Is Over" - Albert Edwards Warns The "Market Is Now Running On Fumes" Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/28/2014 12:51 -0400 Albert Edwards Bond Corporate Finance Equity Markets ETC Funding Gap High Yield Ice Age Investment Grade None Recession Steve Liesman in Share 5 While we have yet to do the actual math on the now-concluded second quarter earnings season, to find out if spending on buybacks surpassed the Q1 record , one thing is still quite clear: with the impact of Fed's QE fading, if only for the time being, buybacks remain the marginal driver, and according to some only driver , of stock market upside in 2014. This was shown explicitly in this chart we posted three months ago: However one person who has decided not to wait in declaring the buyback party over, is SocGen's Albert Edwards, the same person who correctly forecast back in late 2012 the epic scramble by investment grade (and high yield ) companies to lever up, incidentally, to record levels crushing all the endless blather that there is some massive corporate deleveraging going on. This is what Edwards said in his latest note: Much has happened over the summer, but two landmark firsts have occurred only recently, with the SP500 breaking above 2,000 and the 10y bund yield breaking below 1%. Our Ice Age thesis has long called for sub-1% bond yields and I see this extending to the US and UK in due course . It is the equity markets where I have been consistently surprised . QE has been an essential driver for the equity market, providing the fuel for the heavy corporate bond issuance being used for share buybacks. Companies themselves have been the only substantive buyers of equity, but the most recent data suggests that this party is over and as profits also stall out, the equity market is now running on fumes In other words, while QE has been the permissive factor enabling companies to engage in zero cost debt-funded stock repurchases, it was corporate CFOs and Treasurers who, in lieu of traditional retail and institutional buyers, have been the marginal buyers of stocks in the tail end of the most ridiculous, rigged, and as CNBC likes to call it, " unloved " rally of all time. Here is the bad news: It is widely accepted the Fed?s QE programme has inflated asset prices way above fundamental values (higher inequality being one unwelcome by-product). Andrew Lapthorne has identified the mechanism whereby QE, by shrinking the available stock of investable government bonds, has encouraged investors to instead gobble up other debt assets all along the risk spectrum. Companies issuing at low yields into this buying frenzy are doing what they always like doing with debt in the final throes of an economic cycle ? they issue cheap debt to buy expensive equity. Decent profit (cashflow growth) may be more than sufficient to cover capital expenditure and dividends, but a gargantuan funding gap emerges as companies also undertake their corporate finance zaitech activities (see chart below, Andrew also calculates that currently almost a third of all buybacks are to cover the expense of maturing management share options ? QE is indeed making the rich richer!). Of course, none of this is new: this particular cycle always mean reverts, as does the business cycle itself: the same business cycle which the Fed, with its infinite manipulation of all asset classes, and in its infinite stupidity, thinks it can control and delay the onset of the recession, when all it is really doing is making the drawdown that much more severe when it ultimately, and inevitably does hit: ... the elephant in the equity buying ring has been the US corporates themselves (see chart below), who have been hoovering up stock at a prolific pace from the household sector (mainly) financed by debt (see chart below). This is a normal cyclical event but made easier this time around by QE. In retrospect there can be little doubt that QE has washed through the financial markets and elevated share prices via this route. The problem is that this pro-cyclical event has a habit of stopping suddenly for the usual reasons ? i.e. recession or a closure of the credit markets, etc. Andrew in his 18 Aug note shows that is exactly what seems to have happened in the latest Q2 data where share buybacks have actually declined dramatically on both a QOQ and YOY basis. He believes the end of QE may be directly responsible for this - see Bye-bye buybacks ? the end of QE is already being felt in the equity market. The good news, if only for those sick of all the endless Fed manipulation of every asset class, something even Steve Liesman finally acknoledges, is that is if finally all ending... This pro-cyclical process always ends in tears and is regarded in retrospect as typical end-of-cycle madness. For when the funding for corporate bond issuance stops (for whatever reason, i.e. QE ends), share buybacks also stop and one of the biggest drivers for the equity bull market is removed. The equity bubble has disguised the mountain of net debt piling up on US corporate balance sheets (see charts below). This is hitting home now QE has ended. The end of the buyback bonanza may well prove to be decisive for this bubble. Indeed - is that a hissing I can hear? ... at which point the Fed will have no choice but to step in again, and the central-planning game can restart again from square 1, until finally the Fed's already tenuous credibility is lost, the abuse of the USD's reserve status will no longer be a possibility, and the final repricing of assets to their true levels can begin. Average: 4.90909 Your rating:None Average:4.9 (11votes)
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Why Energy May Be Abundant But Not Cheap Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/29/2012 17:41 -0400 Afghanistan China Copper CRAP ETC Guest Post Natural Gas Recession recovery Saudi Arabia Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog , It doesn’t matter how abundant liquid fossil fuels might be; it’s their cost that impacts the economy. Many people think “peak oil” is about the world is “running out of oil." Actually, “peak oil” is about the world running out of cheap, easy-to-get oil. That means fossil fuels might be abundant (supply exceeds demand) for a time but still remain expensive. The abundance or scarcity of energy is only one factor in its price. As the cost of extraction, transport, refining, and taxes rise, so does the “cost basis” or the total cost of production from the field to the pump. Anyone selling oil below its cost basis will lose money and go out of business. We are trained to expect that anything that is abundant will be cheap, but energy is a special case: it can be abundant but costly, because it’s become costly to produce. EROEI (energy returned on energy invested) helps illuminate this point. In the good old days, one barrel of oil invested might yield 100 barrels of oil extracted and refined for delivery. Now it takes one barrel of oil to extract and refine 5 barrels of oil, or perhaps as little as 3 barrels of unconventional or deep sea oil. In the old days, oil would shoot out of the ground once a hole was drilled down to the deposit. All the easy-to-find, easy-to-get oil has been consumed; now even Saudi Arabia must pump millions of gallons of water into its wells to push the oil up out of the ground. Recent discoveries of oil are in costly locales deep offshore or in extreme conditions. It takes billions of dollars to erect the platforms and wells to reach the oil, so the cost basis of this new oil is high. It doesn’t matter how abundant liquid fossil fuels might be; it’s their cost that impacts the economy. High energy costs mean households must spend more of their income on energy, leaving less for savings and consumption. High energy costs act as a hidden “tax” on the economy, raising the price of everything that uses energy. As household incomes drop and vehicles become more efficient, demand for gasoline declines. Normally, we would expect lower demand to lead to lower prices. But since the production costs of oil have risen, there is a “floor” for the price of gasoline. As EROEI drops, the price floor rises, regardless of demand. This decrease in real incomes and ratcheting-higher energy costs could lead to a situation where energy is abundant but few can afford to buy much of it. The relative abundance of fracked natural gas and low-energy density fossil fuels like tar sands and shale has led to a media frenzy that confuses abundance with low cost. This article (via correspondent Steve K.) illustrates the tone and breezy selection of data to back up the "no worries, Mate" forecast of abundant cheap liquid fuels: An economy awash in oil . (MacLeans) Not so fast, reports Rex Weyler of the Deep Green Blog . Here is Rex's response to the above article. Fair point about the volume of unconventional – deepwater, shale gas oil, tar sands, etc. – hydrocarbons. These reserves may even produce peakies and/or sustain the plateau longer than some observers believe. However, biophysical restraints remain real; peak oil remains real; peak net energy appears imminent, and the impact on economies is already being felt globally. Points to consider: The dregs: In spite of huge shale tar reserve discoveries, peak discoveries remain well behind us, in the 1960s. My father, a petroleum geologist his entire life (and still, in Houston, Kazakstan...), knew about shale and tar deposits when I was a teenager in the 1960s. He called them "the dregs." These deposits are not really news within the oil industry. And they are the dregs because of high cost, low EROI and rapid depletion. EROI: The volume of these low-net-energy reserves could extend peak oil production for decades, but at fast-declining net energy returned to society. We high-graded Earth’s hydrocarbons, just as we high-graded the forests, fish, copper, tin, water, and so forth. We’ve taken the best, highest EROI hydrocarbons, the 100:1 free-flowing wells of the 1930s and 40s. We’re now into the 3:1 and 2:1 tar sands. For example: damming rivers in Northern BC, to send electricity to the fracking fields, to send shale gas to Alberta, to cook the boreal substrate, and mix the black sludge with gas condensate shipped in from California and by pipeline from Kitimat to Fort McMurray, to mix with the bitumen, to pipe to Vancouver Harbour, to ship to China, to burn in a power plant, to supply electricity to their manufacturing empire. By the time any of this energy gets used to actually make something useful to someone in society, and by the time that user puts that usefulness to work to feed, clothe, house, or heal anyone, there is no net-energy left. Our food in North America is already negative net energy by1:10 at best, up to 1:17 or worse for much of the crap we eat. This matters. EROI at well-head, EROI at the consumer pump, and EROI at the point of society’s actual service all matter. Well-head EROI, counting all public subsidies, is now in the 5:1 to 1:1 range for all these “non-conventional” (meaning the dregs) hydrocarbon deposits. Money can be made. Some energy can be delivered to Society, but this is already way below the well-head EROI that could likely run the current complexity of the human society, much less “grow” economies. The degrading reserves take us down along the EROI curve, in which Net Energy returned to society falls off a cliff around 6:1, and is in freefall by 3:1. Net-energy alone kills the idea of much economic growth from a booming hydrocarbon bonanza (other than some great stock plays along the way). Furthermore, depletion renders the idea ever more unlikely: Depletion: Depletion rates on these gas fields have arrived quickly and appear drastic by historic industry standards. The fracking fields peak early and decline swiftly. In the Bakken shale field – one of the great North American saviour fields – the average well has produced ~ 85k barrels in its first year and then declined at about 40% per year. The newer average wells peak earlier and decline faster, so the overall trend is down. The depletion moves the production process along a function that approaches zero net energy... Down we go along the EROI curve... 5:1 .. 4:1 .. 3 .. 2 ... and then really complex society breaks down. An Amish farmer gets 10:1. The Bakken break-even oil price is $85, so there is no profit in any of this right now, but of course there will be if global depletion exceeds demand from crashing economies. Depletion – both in volume and quality – and depletion for all industrial materials and energy stores, EROI, and economic stagnation all work as feedback loops. No one knows the bifurcation points in this complex system. We try to predict those, but miss by a longshot sometimes. Complex societies crash in this manner, declining returns on investments in complexity, from Babylon to London and Washington. See J. Tainter, H. Odum, N. Georgescu-Roegen, Hall, Cleveland, et al. Here are some depletion data on The Oil Drum: Is Shale Oil Production from Bakken Headed for a Run with “The Red Queen”? . See A Review of the Past and Current State of EROI Data (PDF) by Hall, Cleveland, et al. (source: www.mdpi.com ) There is a lot of EROI data here: Obstacles Facing US Wind Energy . (The Oil Drum) Below is the EROI curve, only the “We are here” point at 10:1 is the modern average, and from a few years ago. The new conventional stuff is coming in lower and and the enhanced recovery, shale and tar fields are already over the falls at 6 or 5:1 for the better stuff (best dregs), and 3:1 to 1:1 for the dregs of the dregs, the deeper shale and tar sands. So yes, our friends are correct about the great volume of tar, shale, deep, heavy hydrocarbons, but increasing production of world liquid hydrocarbons much beyond the current 85mb/d is not likely, and increasing net production is even less likely. As you may know, net production per capita peaked in 1979. Actual net production is peaking now. This is the figure that counts: Actual current Net Production Delivered to Society. Growing this figure is technically possible, and may happen with some massive production bonanzas, i.e. we may see actual production push above 90mb/day, or higher, and may even see net production increase, but a major glut of hydrocarbons? No. Not remotely. When settlers first came to North America, they found copper nuggets the size of horses exposed in river beds. China just bought the best known, last, huge, moderate-to-low-grade, strip-minable, high-cost copper field in the world, in Afghanistan, for $billions over the western bids. There will be others, but rest assured: They will be lower grade, higher cost, and the competition will be more intense. When was the last time you bought a “copper” fitting at the hardware store. They’re crap. The alloys are crap. Because the ore quality is in decline and the costs of extraction are rising. Same with oil, trees, tin, coal.... Make no mistake: The war for the dwindling materials and energy flow is well underway. Thank you, Rex, for this commentary on EROI and the quality and cost of hydrocarbon resources. Complex systems like economies are nonlinear, and so history does not necessarily track linear extrapolations of present trends. With that caveat in mind, the preponderance of evidence supports the notion that fossil fuel energy may remain abundant in the sense that supply meets or exceeds demand in a global recession, but the price of liquid fuels may remain high enough to create a drag on growth, employment, tax revenues and all the other economic metrics impacted by high energy costs. Average: 3.8 Your rating: None Average: 3.8 ( 10 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 4924 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Guest Post: What Peak Oil? Who Wants The Highest Crude Oil Price? Presenting The OPEC Cost Curve Guest Post: The Scientific Challenges To Replacing Oil With Renewables The 'Green' Premium: 620% The Race For BTU Has Begun
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