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The Investment Outlook for 2013: Income Outcome (Free) attachment 真实世界经济学(含财经时事) batman119 2013-1-28 29 3998 Mildredpan 2014-12-28 03:55:41
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2013考研数学 很有用的李永乐线代、曹显兵概率-强化班视频资料分享 attachment 经管在职研 cecepiggy 2013-5-19 16 4284 xue199168 2013-12-9 22:30:25
2013 CFA LEVEL1 一级 notes 加入目录书签 完美版 一套5币 attach_img CFA、CVA、FRM等金融考证论坛 涮坛子 2013-4-9 204 10930 沾沾 2013-10-20 00:14:47
2013注会六科教材变化汇总pdf版 attachment 财会类 wenfil 2013-5-6 8 2773 王琪玮 2013-7-18 11:25:44
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【考博真题】2013武汉大学金融学真题 跳蚤市场 noonld 2013-5-31 0 1473 noonld 2013-5-31 22:50:23
2013.CFA.L3.QuickSheet attachment CFA、CVA、FRM等金融考证论坛 lilian24 2013-2-2 6 2612 lymhelen 2013-5-31 09:59:47
2013 Level 3 Sample 下午- Q30 CFA学习群组 匿名 2013-5-17 9 1940 N.Kellerman 2013-5-30 23:01:51
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最新发布:2013版建设工程施工合同示范文本 attachment 新手入门区 2464655608 2013-5-16 2 4456 QQQGQWW 2013-5-17 10:56:32
求2013 Level 2的Secret Source 金融类 bncoxuk 2013-4-7 3 1232 594shang 2013-5-15 17:33:30
中国社会学会2013年年会“从美丽山地到美丽中国:山区社会与文化发展研究”论坛 学术资源/课程/会议/讲座 lipeng19870715 2013-5-3 2 1911 YUYUHANG119 2013-5-3 21:09:55
悬赏 求助Coronary artery involvement in takayasu arteritis - [!reward_solved!] attachment 求助成功区 刀剑林 2013-4-28 1 864 suhongyu000 2013-4-28 10:26:23
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2013复试分数线已出!大家来评论一下吧! attach_img 经管在职博 wgqsucceed 2013-4-10 15 4313 难得糊涂? 2013-4-11 22:01:54
悬赏 求助Effect of lower sodium intake on health - [!reward_solved!] attachment 求助成功区 刀剑林 2013-4-7 1 1542 Toyotomi 2013-4-7 11:01:38

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分享 2013两会之中国小城镇建设现状与意义
林秋玲 2013-5-13 17:25
正是由于乡镇企业的辉煌和广大农村地区农业开发企业潜在的广泛商业前景,在中国经济模式面临转型、急需提高就业和城市化水平的关口,不少学者和ZF部门把小城镇建设视作了转移农村人口、实现产业平衡、提高我国城市化水平的一大法宝。甚至有人乐观估计,只要把我国1/4城镇的人口从现有平均规模的6000人扩大到5万左右,就完全能够把2亿农村剩余劳动力转移出来 。 基于诸如此类的因素,在“十五”计划酝酿过程中,虽然关于我国实现产业平衡和疏解就业压力是偏重阐述“城市化”还是“城镇化”,曾在与会代表中引起很大争论。但决议还是采纳了“城镇化”的提法。   综合各家观点,小城镇派在中国城市化道路方面坚持“小城镇优先”的理由基本集中在以下四个方面:   (一)小城镇建设资金投入少、成本低,例如,浙江龙港,农民集资了1.5亿元就建成了一座可容纳10万人的小城市。而在大中城市要安排一个人就业,仅生产性投入就超过一万元。其它投入如厂房、住宅的价格比则更高。对于我们这个资金相对紧缺的国家而言,前者自然比后者更具有可行性。   (二)改革开放二十余年的经验、尤其是珠江三角洲小城镇整体腾飞的事实证明,小城镇不仅可以诞生大批企业(乡镇企业),而且同样能够创造出经济奇迹来。发展乡镇企业的另一个好处是,它可以有效平衡我国工业企业的规模结构:1980年,我国共有工业企业37.73万个,工业总产值为4964.69亿元,平均每个企业的产值规模为131.58万元,其中,国营企业的平均规模为453.5万元,社队集体企业的平均规模为15.2万元。1985年,全国工业企业已增加到518.53万个,按可比价计算的平均规模却下降到18.74万元。其中,国营企业的平均规模扩大到547.35万元,乡镇企业(包括个体企业)的平均规模则缩小到3.63万元。1990年,全国工业企业的平均规模仍只有30.06万元,其中国营企业的平均规模已上升到699.09万元,而乡镇企业的平均规模只略微扩大到7.18万元。由此可见,乡镇企业不但有效扩大了中小企业在国民经济中的地位和比重,降低了工业企业的平均规模,也大大改善了我国的企业规模结构,使之更符合我国劳动力充裕、资本短缺的国情 。   (三)通过小城镇乡镇企业的充分发育,还可以有效优化我国农村的产业结构。《中国农村统计年鉴》显示,1978年我国农村社会总产值中,农业产值的比重达到68.6%,非农产业的产值比重只有31.4%。而到1990年,农业比重已经下降到46.1%,非农产业的比重则上升到53。9%。与此相应,在农村劳动力中,从事农业的劳动力比重,从1978年的87.69%下降到1990年的77.88%;而从事非农产业的劳动力比重,则从1978年的12.31%上升到1990年的22.12%。这证明,发展乡镇企业并不是在简单转移农村剩余劳动人口,而是一条符合我国现实国情和未来产业布局的明智之举,如仅就我国农产品加工业行业而言就前途无限,完全可以成为我国经济发展的一大增长亮点。   (四)如果放任农村剩余劳动力大量流入城市,不可避免地会与城市居民的就业、再就业产生矛盾。近年来,我国城市就业形势也空前严峻,城镇失业率呈逐年上升趋势。仅1991-1997年7年间,我国城镇登记的失业人数分别为:352万、360万、420万、476.5万、520万、552万和570万人。1997年年末,我国企业下岗职工总数为1151万人,1998年,下岗职工再新添350万,加上行政企业单位的分流、下岗职工,其数量已经超过1200万人。而进城“农民工”就业的主要流向,有些恰好就是城市下岗工人再就业的主要行业,这种情况下,无疑会产生压低行业基础工资率,间接排挤城市职工,使相当部分下岗职工尤其是大龄职工再就业受到严重影响。从而增加国有企业转型和ZF财政负担 。   上述观点,确实都源自我国的实际,也各自具有局部的合理性,但是,我国的小城镇建设战略显然不是一个局部性的问题。以一种只具备局部合理性的论据去论证一个全局性的问题,是“小城镇优先者”们一个共同的理论误区。这种思维方式,在实践上的最大可能是从一个问题过度到另外一个问题。而我国土地资源已十分紧缺的现实,决定了中国在城市化的选择上,再走不起盲目扩张的道路。   事实上,从构建一个可持续发展的全局性经济模式来看,小城镇发展具有明显的局限,那些支撑“小城镇优先”的理由,也无法经受对它们的进一步推敲:   (一)虽然就单纯的数据而言,过去20多年我国小城镇总共增加了近2亿常住人口,但实际上,这部分新增的人口中,大部分来自ZF的行政指令而非出于小城镇经济规模的自然扩张。与大中城市相比,小城镇不但就业机会少,且预期净收益低,对农民的就业吸引十分有限。据江苏省190个小城镇的调查资料显示,早在80年代中期,当地ZF就允许农民自理口粮进镇,但到90年代中期,实际进镇者仅占当地农业已转移劳动力的0.83%,占当地镇劳动者总数的0.65% 。小城镇之所以对农民缺乏引力主要原因在于:   1、小城镇人口规模小,基础设施投入不足,市场环境欠佳,不能有效吸引企业进镇投资办厂,这同时抑制了第三产业的发展,导致就业机会不足。另外,虽然小城镇就业成本低,但其工资收入也比城市低,由于预期净收益低于期望值,农民进镇就业的积极性不高。   2、.小城镇信息量少,文化娱乐设施不足,人口素质不高,生活方式较落后,教育卫生水平低,缺乏现代城市文明的吸引力,不能满足农民尤其是青年农民的生活需求,也难以学到先进的管理知识和生产技术,缺乏就业自豪感。   3、由于小城镇社会保障几乎为零,小城镇户籍对农民的吸引力就非常有限,在这样的情况下,对农民彻底放弃土地进驻小城镇的期望显然不能太过乐观。   (二)乡镇企业在吸纳农村剩余劳动力方面曾经作出了很大贡献。也带动了部分农村地区经济腾飞,甚至目前它在我国外贸出口方面还占有重要位置,但从全国范围乡镇企业的整个态势来看,在进入20世纪90年代后,我国乡镇企业发展速度明显放慢,到90年代中期更呈下滑停滞趋势。1996年末,我国有乡镇企业2336.3万家,1997年末,乡镇企业减少到2014.9万家,下降13.8%。1998年,乡镇企业亏损面从上一年的8%增加到15%,亏损额增加25%,为600亿元左右。1998年全国乡村集体工业企业产销率为94.4%,低于全国水平2个百分点 。   形成此种局势的主要原因在于:我国乡镇企业发展极不均衡,从80年代中期开始兴起的乡镇企业,除珠江三角洲和长江三角洲少部分沿海地区具有较好外部环境和辐射条件,保持了与市场同步发展的势头外,我国绝大部分地区的乡镇企业,不但规模小,设备落后,而且基本属于国家产业政策和环保政策明令禁止、限制、淘汰的对象。如2001年底,长城公司山西办事处在清理企业债务时发现,该公司当地的债务,1/3集中在“十五土小企业”,这些企业,70%已经关停或取缔,其余也将逐步关闭 。不但完全退出了市场,还为当地ZF带来不小的债务负担。   此外,随着竞争的加剧,为适应市场需要,我国乡镇企业以资本替代劳动力的趋势明显。据有关资料反映,乡镇企业每万元吸纳劳动力的数量呈明显下降之势。“八五”期间,乡镇企业平均每年吸纳劳动力719万人,1996年降到647万人,1997年进一步降到400万人 。可见,随着计划经济向市场经济转型的不断深入,乡镇企业作为资源配置通道的特殊作用正在消失,而其社区性、封闭性、边际性的缺陷则日益突出,乡镇企业的特殊身份正在趋弱甚至走向终结。也就是说,乡镇企业已非以“利用当地资源、解决当地剩余劳动力”为目的的经济组织。这在很大程度上弱化了它对农村劳动力的吸收功能。   (三)在市场经济体制下,由于大城市的规模效应和前期投入对后期投入回报的累积效应,发展现代部门的各种资源也往往会继续投向大城市,而很难向农村地区扩散。这无疑将令小城镇建设资金来源变成了一个问题。国家对小城镇建设定下的调子是:当地ZF部门出   少量资金,主要起牵头和引导作用,其余大部分资金,来自外来投资者和入住小城镇的农民。 但是,由于(一)所分析的原因,小城镇力争外来投资的难度很大,而以农民为主体的城建多元投资渠道来筹集资金,前景更不容乐观。根据有关专家测算,小城镇每增加1万人,就需建设1平方公里的城镇,投资近2亿元,而这些资金主要由进镇农民自己筹集。若按农民只承担其中的70%计算,则新增进镇居民人均承担近1.4万元城建投资,这在大多数中西部地区难以做到。况且过去的事实表明,相当多经济实力强的农民在选择就业或创业地点时,并没有选择小镇而是直驱中小城市,这势必会进一步减少小城镇的投资来源。   (四)珠三角小城镇经济的整体腾飞,成为“小城镇发展”论者最有力的例证,但事实上,珠三角小城镇经济的整体腾飞在我国具有无法克隆的特殊性:   1、作为我国改革开放的前沿阵地,珠三角经济的最初起步,享受着产业政策、投资、贸易和税收方面的多种优惠,可以说,在一定程度上,它是我们这个对世界封闭多年的国家为扭转当时的经济颓局所制定的一系列倾斜政策的产物,90年代之前,珠三角对外基本在独享来自世界各地的投资,对内它则面对的是一个巨大而严重物资匮乏的市场。这些有利条件,让当初不少靠敲敲打打起家的作坊工厂发展成为今天的行业龙头。但随着我国改革的深入和经济实力、规模的扩大,这种优势今天已不复存在。   2、截止目前为止,我国引进的数千亿外资中,主要还是来自国外华人。其中,香港、台湾占了近90%的份额,而广东在拥有海外华侨的数量尤其是毗邻香港这一地缘优势方面,其它兄弟省市无法望其项背。   3、经过20余年的发展,现在珠三角基本连成了一片,从国内生产总值、基础设施密度、居住人口密度等指标来看,把它称为“中国最重要的城市群之一”可能更为合适,比如东莞,两千多平方公里地域集中常住人口150多万和400多万外来打工者,人口密集度超过洛杉矶(3790平方公里人口300多万)、比伦敦(1580平方公里人口600多万)低不了多少。这样一个地方,有什么理由说它还是“小城镇”呢?   (五)我国小城镇用地超标和盲目建设的问题极为严重。   我国人均土地、人均耕地、人均林地和人均草地在经过多年的消耗和被新增长的人口摊薄后,目前分别只有12.6亩、1.59亩、1.69亩和3.8亩,大大低于世界的平均水平,据统计,全国2300多个县中,已有666个县区人均耕地低于联合国粮农组织确定的0.8亩的警戒线水平,其中463个县不足0.5亩 。可以说,多年以来,我国就存在人地矛盾尖锐这种情况,我国加速推行城市化的一个重要目的,就是希望以此缓和人地矛盾。但是,小城镇建设不仅没有使人地矛盾缓和,反而有所加剧。据统计,1983-1993年全国耕地平均每年减少32.58万公顷,其中,乡镇企业、 住宅和小城镇是吞食耕地的三只老虎。目前,我国小城镇建成区面积一般在0.8-4.2平方公里,建制镇人口规模平均在6000人左右,其中非农业人口只有3000多人 。人均用地高达192平方米,比规定的标准120平方米高38%。   (六)小城镇加速了我国环境污染。城镇化与乡镇企业的共生,已给小城镇带来了严重的环境污染,如我国长江三角洲地区,目前年燃煤8000万吨,致使大量二氧化碳进入大气,酸雨频率达30%-40%;近20年来,太湖部分水域的水质每隔10年降低一类。 人们曾经哀叹发展中国家发展乡村工业是“20世纪干18世纪的事”。乡镇企业的污染使我国环境问题由城市向农村扩散,形成当今最难治理的大范围、区域性的污染。 如果启用“规模比率系数”,就会发现中国的小城镇的环境问题一般要比大中城市严重,而且其预防、治理的难度和成本更高。   (七)小城镇资源利用率也很低低,浪费严重。通过小城镇与大中城市经济效益的对比可以发现,小城镇单位面积提供的国内生产总值仅相当于全国城市平均水平的1/3,相当于200万人以上大城市的3% 。小城镇人口少,规模小,对于街道、商场、影剧院等公共设施的利用率也远低于大中城市,这不但造成土地、资金的投资浪费,也增加了小城镇的经营成本和发展风险。   综上所述,依靠“小城镇建设”来转移我国农村剩余劳动力,提高我国的城市化水平,最终不但很难实现我国城市化发展的综合性目标,而且可能导致我国资源--环境生态系统的巨大浪费与破坏。  
9 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 10th Annual Formal Epistemology Workshop
uohuo 2013-4-25 18:51
10th Annual Formal Epistemology Workshop FEW 2013 RUTGERS May 8–10, 2013 Announcement | Schedule | Local Information FEW '12 | FEW '11 | FEW '10 | FEW '09 | FEW '08 FEW '07 | FEW '06 | FEW '05 | FEW '04
2 个评论
分享 有人整理出来2013的四川省统计年鉴没?
meizijane 2013-3-15 13:49
有人整理出来2013年的年鉴没有?根据季度数据整理的。我需要啊
27 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 "Great Rotation" Does A 360 As US Equity Funds Post Biggest Weekly Out
insight 2013-3-2 15:59
"Great Rotation" Does A 360 As US Equity Funds Post Biggest Weekly Outflow Of 2013 Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/01/2013 05:56 -0500 Bank of America Bank of America Bond fixed The "great rotation" illusion may have ended just as rapidly as it arrived. Bank of America reports that in the past week, "commodity funds reported their largest historical weekly outflow, in dollar terms, of -$3.2bn this week and US equity funds reported an outflow of -$4.1bn this week, which is their largest weekly outflow this year ." So much for anyone rotating anywhere. And while we await for the delayed ICI to confirm this data, we can only remind readers that this is precisely the same inflow followed by outflow that was seen in early 2011, which was then followed by nearly two straight years of relentless and persistent outflows. Oh well - better luck in 2014. Full BofA note: US loan funds reported their 2nd largest weekly inflow in history this week (+$1.3bn) after a record +$1.5bn inflow just two weeks ago. Interestingly, the top 5 largest inflows into US loan funds in history, in dollar terms, have all come over the past 5 weeks. Strong inflows into loan funds, which began during the last quarter of 2012, are the result of demand for the asset class which offers investors both higher yields, compared to the broader fixed income market, and protection from rising interest rates. Year-to-date inflows into US loan funds have reached +15.5bn (+12.5%), far exceeding inflows into any of the other asset classes we track. Alternatively, US HY funds have reported outflows in each of the past 5 weeks, including a -$211mn outflow this week. Inflows into US IG funds were a solid +$1.7bn this week, leaving YTD inflows at +23.8bn (+1.4%). EM local currency bond funds reported another very strong inflow of +$983mn this week and have seen total net assets grow by +$9.9bn (+8.1%) YTD. Inflows have been less impressive into EM external debt funds so far this year, with YTD AUM growth of just +$3.1bn (+2.3%) after including this week’s -$398mn outflow. In other asset classes, commodity funds reported their largest historical weekly outflow, in dollar terms, of -$3.2bn this week and US equity funds reported an outflow of -$4.1bn this week, which is their largest weekly outflow this year. Average: 5 Your rating: None Average: 5 ( 1 vote) Tweet Login or register to post comments 6431 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend
个人分类: market|9 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 2013
王小祁 2013-2-26 14:34
新的一年,新的规划! 加油,亲爱的自己!
个人分类: 青春溜溜|5 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 2013 Earnings Are Now Forecast To Be Less Then 2009 Earnings Were Projected To B
insight 2013-2-10 10:56
2013 Earnings Are Now Forecast To Be Less Then 2009 Earnings Were Projected To Be In 2007 Submitted by Tyler Durden on 02/09/2013 12:51 -0500 Ben Bernanke Bob Pisani Central Banks Excess Reserves Reality Over the past few weeks, virtually all of the empty chatterboxes on financial comedy TV have been repeating ad infinitum just how much cheaper the market now is compared to its prior peak in 2007 because, get this, it trades at "only" a 15x multiple compared to the 18x or so reached at its peak in 2007. By doing so these same hollow pundits simply confirm just how painfully clueless their cheerleading is, as the market, or what's left of it in the " new Bernanke centrally-planned abnormal ", never trades on current earnings but always future discounted EPS, or in other words, forward P/E, or any other valuation, multiples. And it is when one looks at the future on an apples to apples basis, that the market now is more expensive than it was back in 2007! As the chart below shows, specifically the red dotted line, the 2013 SP 500 consensus earnings, which have obviously been declining for the past year from 120 to roughly 110, are now less than what 2009 consensus earnings were at the peak of the market in 2007, when they, too, hit some 120 in Earnings per share. In other words, on a forward multiple basis, in 2007 the market was cheaper than it is now as earnings were supposed to go up virtually parabolically, from under 90 for year end 2007 to 108 for 2008 and 120 for 2009. Just as notable is the full year 2012 earnings which too were supposed to soar to nearly 120 as recently as 2010, instead closed at the very lowest of the forward projection series, or just about 100 in SP500 EPS. Putting this number in historical perspective as the blue line shows, back in 2007 the Wall Street consensus was expecting that 2008 earnings would be higher than where 2012 actual earnings will close the year. Of course, what ended up happening was vastly different, and both 2008 and 2009 actual earnings imploded from their peak estimates of 110 and 120 to approximately 65 and 60, or were literally cut in half as the Great Financial Crisis destroyed not only the corporate bottom line but all hopes of multiple expansion. And now we are back to forecasting a massive growth in the future, which as history has shown time and again, ir rarely if ever attained. But that is what the sell-side lemming crew is taught to do: draw upward sloping arrows and goalseek their models to fit an artificial regression line. Yet what the second chart below shows is that when one normalizes for the recent historical pattern in earnings, the consensus 2013 earnings forecast will once again be a major disappointment, and will end up being drastically reduced. In fact, if one extrapolates the inverted curved yellow line of what actual SP earnings have been in recent years, it is very likely that not only has the broader economy peaked, but so have corporate revenues, margins and earnings, and at this point any profit growth will be very limited at best. Finally, slamming the door shut on the future hope versus current reality myth, Goldman's latest Q4 earnings tally reminds us that with over 80% of Q4 earnings season done, EPS is now expected to decline by 1% relative to Q4 2011, (when Europe was imploding (as usual), and when the global central banks had to bailout the world once more). Some other observations: Trailing four-quarter margins declined in almost every sector . Index-level margins look stronger excluding charges but are still below last year’s peak. Management guidance for 1Q 2013 is more negative than us ual. 78% of companies guided down versus consensus estimates (versus 68% historically). Full-year margins fell by 30 bp versus last year with declines in almost every sector. The largest margin declines came from Telecom Services, Energy, and Materials. While Information Technology margins declined by 46 bp versus 2011, 8% sales growth resulted in relatively strong earnings growth of 5%. Bottom-up consensus expected 2012 EPS of $107 one year ago . This is 5% higher than realized results comparable to those estimates. A -5% revision is in-line with the median historical revision since 1984 Bottom-up consensus forecasts $112 of EPS for 2013. Consensus already lowered estimates by 1% in 2013 with the largest declines in Health Care and Information Technology earnings estimates. Who performed best? Why the one group benefitting most from trillions in excess reserves, and which is full to the gills of fake earnings like one-time items, non-recurring non-cash charges, and of course: loan-loss reserve releases rarely if ever matched by the need to raise provisions for the coming avalanche of lawsuits against all banks: The Financials sector reported the strongest year-over-year growth in 2012. Financials EPS grew 7% versus 2011 Finally, for that most trotted out metric that companies are "beating expectations" - here's why: since the start of earnings season in January, consensus Q4 earnings have declined by a massive 8% in just a few weeks ! Why of course companies will beat consensus EPS numbers that were some 8% higher just one month ago. The reality is that in order for companies to "beat" estimates, the consolidated Q4 EPS for the SP500 has had to drop from $25.51 to $23.47, which as already noted means a 1% drop in Y/Y Q4 earnings , and which means that contrary to what Bob Pisani may tell you, this earnings season will be the weakest in all of 2012, with little real hope for a pick up in 2013. Average: 4.857145 Your rating: None Average: 4.9 ( 7 votes) Tweet - advertisements - Login or register to post comments 5994 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Bill Gross Proven Half Right (For Now): Fed's Kocherlakota Just Reduced His 2011 GDP Forecast From 3.0% To 2.5%
个人分类: corporate|11 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 要期待些什么,其实足矣
自在133 2013-1-26 13:30
这次还实习,是抱着太大的目的。半个月,觉得留下来不要回家去,大三了,出来找点事做,看看自己到底喜欢些什么。已经8天了,实习的才有3天,其余都在等待,等待想必是美好的,因为有所期待。但有不确定,无承诺,从而,等来的确实心慌。 自己主动过来了,随随便便安排个事情,搞的自己也随随便便想去应对了。 假期的意义何在?如果回家,可能每天繁杂与家务琐事之中,不是一样无所事事?还好,还会心慌。有志之士,不会对自己随随便便。任然怀着一颗期待的心情去迎接那个项目。
个人分类: 心情|7 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 2013美赛
木子走刀口1 2013-1-24 22:21
时间越来越近了
7 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 Real Estate Trend in China 2013
financedummy 2013-1-16 00:05
China's land price inflation for residential homes is expected to quicken this year after picking up in the fourth quarter, the Ministry of Land and Resources said on Tuesday, amid growing expectations that the property market is rebounding. The average price of land for residential homes rose 1.2 percent to 4,620 yuan ($740) per square meter in 105 cities between October and December compared to the third quarter, the ministry said. Prices had risen 0.9 percent in the third quarter. It is good to see housing market rebound which contribute to the recovery of economy in China. On the other hands, a small group of people benefit it far more than the majority. The gap between the poor and the rich widens. Good luck and invest wisely to bridge the gap.
20 次阅读|0 个评论

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