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灾后的日本经济正以超过预期的速度迅速恢复。范围更广的改革也会很快来临吗？
May 19th 2011 | SENDAI AND TOKYO | from The Economist print edition
5月13日，受海啸重创的日本宫城县的知事村井嘉浩（Yoshihiro Murai）接到一份愤怒的请愿书，这份请愿书来自一个长期控制日本东北部几个最富饶渔场的合作社的老板。他们打着这样的旗号：“我们不允许把渔民变成工薪族”。村井知事曾提出出钱帮助他们重建被毁坏的家园，作为回报他们必须允许私人企业在宫城县的水域捕鱼。那份请愿书就是他们的回应。曾是一名飞行员的村井先生并未被他们的抗议吓到，因为他注意到那些老板中的大多数已经年过60，无论怎样捕鱼业都面临灭亡的危险。之后他告诉《经济学人》对宫城海岸线撤销管制的这一做法应该作为模式向全国的改革推广。“有改革就总有痛苦，”他说道。
That resolve has become more common since the earthquake and tsunami of March 11th and the subsequent nuclear crisis jolted Japanese citizens’ faith in their country and those who run it. The question now is whether the reformist zeal will stop at the rebuilding of Tohoku, the devastated region in the north-east, or go further, to solve the problems of overcapacity, high public debt and deflation that were plaguing Japan long before the disaster.
自从3月11日发生的地震和大海啸以及随后的核危机撼动了日本普通国民和统治者对国家的信念以后，像村井先生那样的决心越来越普遍了。现在的问题是改革者的热忱是否仅限于重建遭受重创的日本东北地区，还是可以走得更远去解决早在此次大灾难发生很久以前就一直困扰日本的问题，生产能力过剩，国债债台高筑以及通货紧缩。
The speed of the clear-up is raising hopes that the economy will prove resilient after the initial shock. Industrial production plunged by 15.5% between February and March, a far steeper drop than the previous monthly record of 8.6%, in February 2009 not long after Lehman Brothers’ bankruptcy. Figures this week showed that GDP fell at an annual rate of 3.7% in the first quarter compared with the last three months of 2010, pushing the economy technically back into recession. Moreover, the decline in output in late 2010 was 3% rather than the previous estimate of 1.3%. But private economists are forecasting a pick-up in the second half of the year, which would be a big improvement on what happened after Lehman (see chart).
震后恢复的速度使人们更加相信日本经济在经历最初的打击后也能迅速恢复元气。二月和三月间的工业生产骤降15.5%，比之前2009年2月创下的最低月纪录8.6%还要低得多，那时莱曼兄弟公司刚刚破产不久。本周的数字证实今年第一季度日本GDP年率与2010年第四季度相比大跌3.7%，严格地说是把经济推回倒退的阶段。此外，2010年年末产量下降3%而不是之前预计的1.3%。但是民间经济学家预计今年下半年将有回升，这将是自莱曼兄弟破产后一个重大的改善（见图表）。
Recovery in stricken Tohoku has been quicker than many had expected. Nine out of ten manufacturing firms damaged by the disaster hope to restore output to pre-crisis levels by mid-summer, the government says. After a heroic effort by Renesas Electronics, a quake-damaged chip company whose microcontrollers are vital for running many cars, hard-hit Toyota is now expecting to be back to normal production by the autumn (see article).
受灾的东北地区正以比很多人预期的更快的速度恢复。**称受灾的制造业公司中九分之十都希望在仲夏前使产量恢复到震前水平。受灾的瑞萨电子公司（Reneasa Electronics）制造对控制很多汽车很重要的微处理器，在它采取勇敢的行动以后（译者注：宣布6月15日前恢复生产），遭受重创的丰田公司现在预计于秋天之前恢复到往常的生产水平。
Electricity supply in Tokyo, thrown into chaos after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant and other generators were knocked out by the quake and tsunami, is also being restored, which will further boost the revival. There have been no blackouts since March 29th. Tokyo Electric Power (TEPCO), the utility that owns the Fukushima plant, expects peak capacity to reach 55-56 gigawatts this summer, enough for a small surplus if it is not too hot.
因福岛第一核电站和其他发电厂被地震和海啸毁坏而陷入混乱的东京的电力供应也在恢复中，这将进一步推进境界复苏。自3月29日起就没有停电情况出现。拥有福岛核电站的东京电力公司（TEPCO）预计今年夏天峰值可达到55-56千兆瓦，如果今夏不是太热的话，那么这个数字足够留有小小的盈余。
Beyond Tokyo, doubts linger over possible losses of power during the summer because only 19 of the country’s 54 nuclear reactors are in service. Many of those closed for routine maintenance require approval from local governors to be restarted, but with the Fukushima accident still so fresh in people’s minds, it is touch and go whether they will get it. However, companies and households have shown a willingness to curb demand during peak hours, which the government hopes will ward off blackouts.
东京之外，因为日本54个核电站中只有19个正在供电，所以人们仍怀疑夏天是否会出现电荒。那些因按惯例维修而关闭的核电站中有很多都需要获得当地领导者的批准才能重新运作，但是很难说它们能否获批，因为福岛事故刚刚过去不久，人们还记忆犹新。然而，公司和家庭都在用电高峰时自觉省电，**希望这样做能避免停电。
Another bright spot is that consumers may be perking up. Although there was a record plunge in confidence in April, the “Golden Week” holiday in early May produced an unexpected flurry of tourism. “It is the first time I have been happy in a traffic jam,” quipped Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at J.P. Morgan in Tokyo.
另一个闪光点是消费者也许正开始活跃起来。尽管4月的信心指数创下新低，5月初的“黄金周”假日带来了意料之外的旅游热。日本摩根大通首席经济学家菅野雅明(Masaaki Kanno)俏皮地说：“我第一次在堵车里能这么开心。”
But if the private sector is putting its back into reconstruction, the public sector is being less heroic. The government has passed a ¥4 trillion ($50 billion) supplementary budget for cleaning up the debris and other urgent tasks. But there is a political tug-of-war over a proposal to spend an extra ¥10 trillion on reconstructing and revitalising Tohoku, a lagging region even before the disaster. That public spending will be vital to ensure a strong rebound in the national economy.
但是如果说私有企业正发奋重整旗鼓，国有企业就不那么一往直前了。日本**通过了一项4万亿日元（约500亿美元）的为清理废墟及其他紧急工作而准备的补充预算。但是政治上仍在为东北地区重建和恢复提供的额外10万亿日元的提议激烈争执，该地区在灾前就是落后地区。这项公共支出对能否保证全国经济强劲反弹至关重要。
Even if Naoto Kan’s government, which suffers from low poll ratings and divisions in parliament, can prevail on the extra budget, there are doubts about whether his leadership is strong enough to shake the economy out of two decades of low growth and rising debt. On May 17th the prime minister postponed a decision on whether to join talks to form a free-trade area called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. That was aimed at reducing the loss of manufacturing jobs to Asia, which is hollowing out Japan’s industrial base and sapping tax revenues.
菅直人的**民调支持率低，在议会也遭遇分裂，即使它能说服通过这个额外的预算，人们仍然怀疑菅直人的领导力是否强大到把日本从20多年的缓慢增长和越来越多的债务中救出来。5月17日，首相推迟了关于决定是否加入为组成名为“泛太平洋伙伴关系”的自由贸易地区的谈话。这个地区旨在减少亚洲制造业工作岗位的损失，制造业工作的减少正挖空日本工业基础并削弱其税收。
Another worry is whether Mr Kan can push through a reform of the fiscal system to help ease strains on the public finances. Polls show that the appetite for raising the consumption tax to help share the burden of reconstruction, which was strong shortly after the crisis, is now waning.
人们还担忧菅直人是否能推动财政体系改革来帮助减少公共财政上的压力。民调显示大地震刚刚结束时人们非常愿意通过提高消费税来分担重建的负担，但现在这种意愿正不断减弱。
Despite these doubts about the politics of reform, Mr Murai is not alone in calling for a decisive break with the past. Within the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), revised growth plans are being prepared that an official says would enable small power-producers to increase their contribution to the grid, encourage more renewable energy and introduce smart metering to stimulate conservation. Officials believe that a focus on green technologies could give new impetus to Japan’s economy. Some think TEPCO should be put through bankruptcy while at the same time Tokyo’s energy market should be opened to more competition. The government has not gone that far but on May 18th Mr Kan hinted that the monopolistic power of electrical utilities might be reviewed, which could lead to the separation of power generation and distribution.
尽管对改革的政治活动有所怀疑，村井并不是唯一一个呼吁彻底与过去决裂的人。经济产业省（METI）正在准备修订的增长计划，一位官员表示这些计划能让发电能力小的发电厂为整个电网增加他们的贡献，鼓励更多可再生能源的使用，引进机敏的测量法来刺激人们省电。官员们相信重视绿色环保科技能带给日本经济新的推动力。有些人认为东电应该破产同时东京能源市场应该向更多竞争者开放。**还没那么做，但是5月18日，菅直人暗示发电的垄断势力可能会接受审查，这也许会导致发电和分配电力的分裂。
There is, says one METI official, a change of mood. “Before March 11th the goal of Japan was not that clear. Now it’s much clearer.” At present most efforts are being focused on recovering from the disaster. But there is reason to hope that energy may be directed to finding a new way forward for an economy that grows mainly because of foreign trade, generates insufficient demand at home and has been unable to find a productive use for the oodles of spare cash that sits on private balance-sheets.
一位经济产业省的官员说情绪上发生了变化。“3月11日前，日本的目标还没这么明确，但是现在却清晰得多了。”目前大多数努力都集中于从此次灾难中恢复过来。但是有理由希望也许人们在集中力量寻找新的途径，让经济的增长主要依赖于国外贸易，让经济激发国内不足的需求，而日本经济一直一来无法让私人账目里闲置的的大批资金发挥生产作用。
from the print edition | Finance and Economics
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