***** Vector Autoregressive Model *****
Dependent Variable = illinois
R-squared = 0.9942
Rbar-squared = 0.9936
sige = 14.1354
Q-statistic = 0.3897
Nobs, Nvars = 171, 17
******************************************************************
Variable Coefficient t-statistic t-probability
illinois lag1 1.115508 10.425844 0.000000
illinois lag2 -0.142303 -1.351897 0.178391
indiana lag1 0.458285 1.933247 0.055040
indiana lag2 -0.564095 -2.512342 0.013023
kentucky lag1 0.050127 0.825934 0.410119
kentucky lag2 -0.028382 -0.497950 0.619229
michigan lag1 -0.036735 -0.451981 0.651918
michigan lag2 -0.023344 -0.305476 0.760416
ohio lag1 -0.211511 -1.947581 0.053284
ohio lag2 0.247158 2.323324 0.021470
pennsylvania lag1 0.213858 3.642153 0.000369
pennsylvania lag2 -0.160180 -2.735375 0.006963
tennessee lag1 0.172710 0.774973 0.439544
tennessee lag2 -0.305168 -1.351918 0.178384
west virginia lag1 -0.057802 -2.245027 0.026191
west virginia lag2 0.025979 1.019486 0.309571
constant 9.118858 2.076484 0.039511
****** Granger Causality Tests *******
Variable F-value Probability
illinois 395.453384 0.000000
indiana 3.325473 0.038555
kentucky 0.446651 0.640593
michigan 0.673960 0.511183
ohio 2.981984 0.053628
pennsylvania 6.638329 0.001716
tennessee 0.982283 0.376789
west virginia 3.046686 0.050390
Dependent Variable = indiana
R-squared = 0.9813
Rbar-squared = 0.9794
sige = 3.8785
Q-statistic = 0.3640
Nobs, Nvars = 171, 17
******************************************************************
Variable Coefficient t-statistic t-probability
illinois lag1 0.159280 2.841990 0.005091
illinois lag2 -0.146823 -2.662855 0.008571
indiana lag1 0.811927 6.538693 0.000000
indiana lag2 -0.111470 -0.947780 0.344726
kentucky lag1 0.066624 2.095693 0.037745
kentucky lag2 -0.040600 -1.359860 0.175862
michigan lag1 0.033431 0.785251 0.433513
michigan lag2 -0.031796 -0.794312 0.428236
ohio lag1 -0.052684 -0.926113 0.355837
ohio lag2 0.093004 1.669005 0.097148
pennsylvania lag1 0.072833 2.368002 0.019126
pennsylvania lag2 -0.071623 -2.334973 0.020836
tennessee lag1 0.072318 0.619498 0.536504
tennessee lag2 -0.122989 -1.040157 0.299897
west virginia lag1 -0.023908 -1.772698 0.078256
west virginia lag2 0.022276 1.668830 0.097183
constant 8.146480 3.541441 0.000527
****** Granger Causality Tests *******
Variable F-value Probability
illinois 4.041221 0.019473
indiana 72.420179 0.000000
kentucky 2.664323 0.072856
michigan 0.349299 0.705739
ohio 3.355607 0.037458
pennsylvania 3.195315 0.043683
tennessee 0.572046 0.565564
west virginia 1.698890 0.186296
Dependent Variable = kentucky
R-squared = 0.9947
Rbar-squared = 0.9941
sige = 33.7802
Q-statistic = 1.3145
Nobs, Nvars = 171, 17
******************************************************************
Variable Coefficient t-statistic t-probability
illinois lag1 0.384672 2.325689 0.021340
illinois lag2 -0.222395 -1.366715 0.173707
indiana lag1 -0.013134 -0.035839 0.971457
indiana lag2 -0.398268 -1.147425 0.252986
kentucky lag1 1.034470 11.025935 0.000000
kentucky lag2 -0.182820 -2.074859 0.039663
michigan lag1 -0.023099 -0.183848 0.854375
michigan lag2 0.176869 1.497187 0.136391
ohio lag1 -0.066925 -0.398631 0.690717
ohio lag2 0.148433 0.902583 0.368157
pennsylvania lag1 0.294493 3.244373 0.001444
pennsylvania lag2 -0.204037 -2.253924 0.025612
tennessee lag1 -0.256757 -0.745271 0.457244
tennessee lag2 -0.103491 -0.296577 0.767189
west virginia lag1 -0.066254 -1.664601 0.098026
west virginia lag2 0.080388 2.040666 0.042992
constant 13.070577 1.925330 0.056031
****** Granger Causality Tests *******
Variable F-value Probability
illinois 5.969781 0.003184
indiana 3.074274 0.049071
kentucky 181.388324 0.000000
michigan 2.412633 0.092958
ohio 1.363422 0.258854
pennsylvania 5.277900 0.006067
tennessee 1.128421 0.326204
west virginia 2.100405 0.125900
Dependent Variable = michigan
R-squared = 0.8501
Rbar-squared = 0.8346
sige = 14.3761
Q-statistic = 0.7236
Nobs, Nvars = 171, 17
******************************************************************
Variable Coefficient t-statistic t-probability
illinois lag1 0.188021 1.742525 0.083413
illinois lag2 -0.116172 -1.094373 0.275500
indiana lag1 0.282394 1.181243 0.239327
indiana lag2 -0.546398 -2.413061 0.016994
kentucky lag1 0.108978 1.780525 0.076962
kentucky lag2 -0.071406 -1.242260 0.216029
michigan lag1 0.681414 8.313519 0.000000
michigan lag2 0.007472 0.096957 0.922887
ohio lag1 -0.102660 -0.937342 0.350050
ohio lag2 0.073349 0.683694 0.495196
pennsylvania lag1 0.100707 1.700694 0.091019
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