garchmv.rpf 要在winrats 8.0执行.
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garch(p=1,q=1,mv=bek,pmethod=simplex,piters=10) / xjpn xfra xsui
test(zeros,title="Test for variance causality of JPN to FRA/SUI")
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test(zeros,title="Test for variance causality of FRA/SUI to JPN")
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MV-GARCH, BEKK - Estimation by BFGS
Convergence in 87 Iterations. Final criterion was 0.0000093 <= 0.0000100
Usable Observations 6236
Log Likelihood -11821.7455
Variable Coeff Std Error T-Stat Signif
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1. Mean(1) 0.005278177 0.005518962 0.95637 0.33888471
2. Mean(2) -0.002365984 0.004518602 -0.52361 0.60055006
3. Mean(3) -0.002512107 0.005320535 -0.47215 0.63681761
4. C(1,1) 0.082828772 0.005122224 16.17047 0.00000000
5. C(2,1) 0.029933861 0.007314906 4.09217 0.00004273
6. C(2,2) 0.055797735 0.005307613 10.51277 0.00000000
7. C(3,1) 0.037972521 0.008606669 4.41199 0.00001024
8. C(3,2) -0.003979676 0.009517354 -0.41815 0.67583788
9. C(3,3) -0.058514159 0.006216049 -9.41340 0.00000000
10. A(1,1) 0.359530466 0.011784037 30.50996 0.00000000
11. A(1,2) 0.102641871 0.010187145 10.07563 0.00000000
12. A(1,3) 0.111019209 0.012618953 8.79781 0.00000000
13. A(2,1) 0.038167505 0.015178945 2.51450 0.01192003
14. A(2,2) 0.403489268 0.016769724 24.06058 0.00000000
15. A(2,3) -0.066144826 0.018860799 -3.50700 0.00045319
16. A(3,1) -0.047561302 0.010583094 -4.49408 0.00000699
17. A(3,2) -0.125573453 0.012383922 -10.14004 0.00000000
18. A(3,3) 0.291200900 0.014644629 19.88448 0.00000000
19. B(1,1) 0.935266962 0.003806609 245.69560 0.00000000
20. B(1,2) -0.026702929 0.003263623 -8.18199 0.00000000
21. B(1,3) -0.028560663 0.004168472 -6.85159 0.00000000
22. B(2,1) -0.012473994 0.005833941 -2.13818 0.03250243
23. B(2,2) 0.909755280 0.006548866 138.91798 0.00000000
24. B(2,3) 0.029207433 0.007109654 4.10814 0.00003989
25. B(3,1) 0.016555260 0.004447981 3.72197 0.00019767
26. B(3,2) 0.048818993 0.005584890 8.74126 0.00000000
27. B(3,3) 0.946900683 0.005807772 163.04025 0.00000000
Test for variance causality of JPN to FRA/SUI
Chi-Squared(4)= 104.448074 or F(4,*)= 26.11202 with Significance Level 0.00000000
Test for variance causality of FRA/SUI to JPN
Chi-Squared(4)= 21.639456 or F(4,*)= 5.40986 with Significance Level 0.00023641