1. 高速增长的终结――中国和日本何其相似...............................................................................6
1.1 中国和日本经济发展阶段比较............................................................................................6
1.2 当前中国与日本1970年代初主要经济指标对比................................................................7
2. 日本高速增长终结的原因与政策演进......................................................................................9
2.1 “尼克松冲击”和“石油危机”只是导火索......................................................................9
2.2 支撑高速增长的条件发生根本性变化...............................................................................10
2.3 中速增长期的政策:淡化GDP 货币谨慎 财政扩张.......................................................12
3. 日本转型期经济结构的变化...................................................................................................14
3.1 消费略有放缓,但亮点频现.............................................................................................15
3.2 各项投资明显下台阶........................................................................................................16
3.3 中速增长期消费较投资强劲的解释..................................................................................18
4. 高速增长终结后的日本产业结构调整....................................................................................18
4.1 中速增长期产业变化无悬念:第二产业下降、第三产业上升..........................................18
4.2第二产业的结构调整和升级..............................................................................................19
4.3 传统重工业(钢铁、化工等)风光不再...........................................................................20
4.4 产业升级的典范:机械和汽车的振兴...............................................................................21
4.5 主导产业和支柱产业的变迁:第三产业的崛起................................................................23
4.6 日本产业结构调整成功经验总结......................................................................................25
5. 由日本观中国:绕不过的转型阵痛期....................................................................................25
5.1 日本转型的经验概括........................................................................................................25
5.2 中国潜在增长率会大幅下滑吗?......................................................................................26
5.3 政策沿着正确方向行进,将避免中国经济大起大落.........................................................28
5.4 中国消费和投资的未来....................................................................................................29
5.5 绕不过的转型阵痛期........................................................................................................31
6. 资产配置的日本经验和中国前瞻...........................................................................................31