报告的编撰者都是货币经济学界的大牛:Alan Blinder, Princeton大学教授,曾经是美联储副主席,经典教科书 Economics: Principles and Policy(已更新到第12版)的作者。Frederic Mishkin, Columbia大学教授,曾经是美联储委员会委员(governor of the Board of Governors),经典教科书 The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets(已更新到第10版)的作者。Donald Kohn, Brookings 研究员,曾经是美联储副主席。Thomas Jordan, 现任瑞士央行行长。
Exit Strategy
Alan S. Blinder, Thomas J. Jordan, Donald Kohn, Frederic S. Mishkin, 10 October 2013
Central banks have broken new ground in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis. They have brought interest rates down very close to the zero lower bound and have committed to keeping them there for an extended period of time. They have multiplied the sizes of their balance sheets several times over. Hopefully, the exceptional circumstances that led to these extraordinary measures will dissipate. Undoing extraordinary actions is bound to be out of the ordinary, and therefore fraught with difficulties, if not dangers. The exit strategy, as the pending operation is called, needs to be thought through with great care.
Table of Contents
List of Conference Participants
Foreword
Introduction and Acknowledgements
Charles Wyplosz
1 Exit to What? The Status Quo Ante or Some New Normal?
Alan S. Blinder
1.1 Inflation targeting
1.2 Balance sheets and novel instruments
1.3 Central bank communication
1.4 Macroprudential concerns
1.5 International cooperation
1.6 Questions for discussion
Frederic S. Mishkin
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Should inflation targeting be abandoned?
2.3 Should central banks engage in policies that are directed at financial stability?
2.4 Should non-conventional monetary policy be kept in central bank toolkits and how does this affect central bank communication?
2.5 Concluding remarks
3.1 Comments by Julian Callow
3.2 Comments by Benoît Coeuré
3.3 Comments by Lucrezia Reichlin
3.4 General discussion
4 When and How to Exit: Issues Related to the Transition
Donald Kohn
4.1 Introduction
4.2 When to exit: Under what circumstances should policy change?
4.3 How to exit: How should tools be deployed to exit unconventional
policies and will they be effective?
4.4 What are the potential implications of exit for financial stability
and what should be done to mitigate any risks?
4.5 What are the potential implications of exit for the fiscal condition of
the government in general, and the central bank in particular?
4.6 Transparency and plans
5 Discussion: How to Prepare for Exit and What Order of Exit?
5.1 Comments by Lorenzo Bini-Smaghi
5.2 Comments by Kiyohiko Nishimura
5.3 Comments by Huw Pill
5.4 General discussion
6 Exit to a New Macroprudential Framework: The Swiss Approach
Thomas J. Jordan
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Monetary policy, financial stability and the involvement of central banks
6.3 Current instruments
6.4 New instruments and a new institutional framework
6.5 Swiss governance
6.6 Importance of careful but determined approach
6.7 Swiss experience
6.8 Conclusions
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