Rent or Buy?
Relationship is changing
quickly as home prices fall
Lou Taylor
Research Analyst
(1) 203 863 2381
louis.taylor@db.com
Christeen Kim
Associate Analyst
(1) 415 617 4221
christeen.kim@db.com
Rent–Buy gap narrows as home prices fall
The national rent-buy gap narrowed 650 bps in Q1, following a 550 bps change in
Q407. The cost to rent was 74.0% of the cost to own at 3/31/2008. This has not
yet reached the 80-90% range of the 1990s, but it’s retraced back to 2005 levels.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
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DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1
Industry Strategy
Companies featured
American Campus Communities (ACC.N),USD27.22 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
FFO (USD) 1.00 1.53 1.63
P/FFO (x) 28.7 17.8 16.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.5 11.2 8.4
AIMCO (AIV.N),USD35.24 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
FFO (USD) 3.27 3.22 3.40
P/FFO (x) 15.2 10.9 10.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.1 17.3 12.8
AvalonBay Communities (AVB.N),USD94.31 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
FFO (USD) 4.61 4.95 5.40
P/FFO (x) 26.3 19.1 17.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 23.1 21.2 18.9
BRE Properties, Inc. (BRE.N),USD44.02 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
FFO (USD) 2.59 2.75 2.95
P/FFO (x) 22.2 16.0 14.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.8 16.9 16.1
Camden Property Trust (CPT.N),USD51.12 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
FFO (USD) 3.66 3.55 3.75
P/FFO (x) 17.9 14.4 13.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.3 18.3 17.6
Equity Residential (EQR.N),USD38.62 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
FFO (USD) 2.40 2.45 2.65
P/FFO (x) 18.7 15.8 14.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.7 16.4 16.0
Post Properties (PPS.N),USD40.55 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
FFO (USD) 2.00 1.98 2.10
P/FFO (x) 22.3 20.5 19.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 20.2 19.0 18.8
Global Markets Research Company
Falling home prices have been the primary driver
Median home price declines were significant in Q108, down 6.8% overall. Prices
were down the most in Sacramento and the Inland Empire, where they fell 29%.
The falling median prices in interior California are now hurting the coastal metros
with San Diego and Los Angeles down 23% and 22%, respectively. Las Vegas
rounded out the top five, with home prices down 20%. In total, home prices fell in
42 of the 55 metros we track. This compares to 31 in Q407 and 20 in Q107.
Some major markets reach equilibrium
Falling prices are moving major markets closer to equilibrium. In Q108,
Albuquerque, Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, and Charleston became “affordable”,
where the equilibrium has returned to where it was in the 1990s. We estimate that
35% of the markets are in in equilibrium versus 26% at 12/31/07.
Versus income, the gap has also narrowed
Rents relative to income remain much more affordable than the costs of
ownership, but the gap has narrowed significantly from its peak. In 2006, the gap
peaked at 780 bps. Now, it’s closer to 470 bps. This still a far cry from the 100-150
bps spread in the 1990’s, but the difference has been shrinking quickly over the
past few quarters.
No help from mortgage rates yet – this could change in Q3
Interest rate changes have had little overall impact on the rent-buy equation.
However, that could change. Our fixed income strategists theorize that high
mortgage rates are the result of a flood of fixed-rate mortgages that have hit the
market. However, fixed-rate mortgage volumes are falling noticeably. We think this
could cause fixed-rate mortgage spreads to narrow and rates to fall. In turn, the
rent-buy gap could narrow even further in Q2 and Q3.
Are foreclosures peaking or are banks selling homes faster?
With fewer adjustable-rate mortgage holders faced with higher payments, the
likelihood of default diminishes. The number of homes in foreclosure seems to
have peaked in late April. We’re not sure if this suggests falling foreclosure rates
or the banks’ ability to sell foreclosed homes at a faster rate. Seriously delinquent
rates on subprime mortgages continue to rise, which suggests more foreclosures
are coming.
Valuation and risks
We value the Apartment REITs on forward enterprise value in 1H09. We believe
this is an appropriate metric given our view that REITs should trade at private
market value. Our valuation and estimates are subject to economic slowdown and
supply-demand dynamics, which could affect rent growth and occupancy.
Table of Contents
Q1 metrics .......................................................................................... 3
Falling home prices bring the gap back to 2005 .......................................................................3
Overall affordability improves modestly....................................................................................7
Markets are moving steadily back to historical relationships ....................................................7
Rent growth remained consistent.............................................................................................9
Mortgage rates may be the next catalyst .....................................Error! Bookmark not defined.
Are foreclosures peaking? ......................................................................................................13
Keeping a cautious stance on the Apt companies........................ 15
Valuation and risks (Apartment REITs) ....................................................................................15
Appendix: Details by metro ........................................................... 17
Q1 metrics
Falling home prices bring the gap back to 2005
Rent–Buy gap narrows quickly as home prices fall. The national rent-buy gap narrowed
650 bps in Q1, following a 550bps change in Q407. The cost to rent was 74.0% of the cost
to own at 3/31/2008 (see Figure 1). This is up 1370 bps from the Q406 trough of 60.3%. This
has not yet reached the 80-90% range of the 1990s, but it’s retraced back to the levels in
2005.
Falling home prices have been the primary driver. As Figure 3 indicates, median home
price declines were significant in Q108. Median prices were down the most in Sacramento
and the Inland Empire, where they fell 29%. The falling prices in interior California are now
hurting the coastal metros, with San Diego and Los Angeles down 23% and 22%,
respectively. Las Vegas rounded out the top five, with home prices down 20%. In total,
home prices fell in 42 of the 55 metros we track. This compares to 31 in Q407 and 20 in
Q107. Sequentially, home prices were down 5.4% overall, but in some markets prices
slipped over 10%: Inland Empire (-15%), Cleveland (-14%), Sacramento (-13%), San Diego
(-12%), and Memphis (-10%). All but three markets had sequential declines (see Figure 4).
Mix shift may influence the results in some markets. We use the median home prices in
our calculations and acknowledge that the mix within markets can change. In February,
Congress proposed raising the maximum loan value eligible for purchase by Fannie or
Freddie. We think this caused people in higher-priced markets, like coastal California, to delay
purchases until the new rules became effective (late March). As a result, there may have
been fewer high-priced homes sold in Q1 in those markets. In doing so, the median prices
would fall as most of the sales were at lower price points. We don’t think it explains the
entire drop because some relatively affordable cities like Orlando, Tucson, Tampa and Las
Vegas experienced a large drop in the median home price. Banks with foreclosed homes may
have sold a higher number of homes in these markets, thus bringing down the median. We
think Q2 will be a little more instructive as the mortgage policy would be in effect for the
whole quarter and foreclosure rates seem to be declining.