求高手指导啊,不知道哪里出了问题,不知道如何选取滞后阶数和多项式数,以下是我多次选取数字实验的结果,可是感觉都不理想,有哪位大家能帮我看看,急求中。。。。。在线等,非常感谢!!!!
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(X)
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(Y)
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1981年
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2.191397686
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-2.465104022
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1982年
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0.509907933
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-2.3227878
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1983年
|
1.428437314
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-2.009915479
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1984年
|
0.281967527
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-2.171556831
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1985年
|
0.821341359
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-1.777856564
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1986年
|
1.120476403
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-2.162823151
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1987年
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0.417332069
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-2.3330443
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1988年
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-1.128673578
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-2.343407088
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1989年
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0.300555428
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-2.830217835
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1990年
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-0.834320369
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-2.145581344
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1991年
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1.575746855
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-1.937941979
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1992年
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0.514960766
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-2.032557956
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1993年
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1.045849263
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-2.273026291
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1994年
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-0.278256123
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-2.216407397
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1995年
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-1.47414015
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-2.407945609
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1996年
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-0.8427325
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-2.748872196
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1997年
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-0.427626862
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-2.207274913
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1998年
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-0.650332948
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-2.617295838
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1999年
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0.283543445
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-2.645075402
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2000年
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1.204715897
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-2.501036032
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2001年
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0.934946324
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-2.513306124
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2002年
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0.079294099
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-2.513306124
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2003年
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0.990634982
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-2.225624052
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2004年
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0.97392062
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-2.198225078
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2005年
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-0.270982315
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-2.216407397
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2006年
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1.704060551
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-2.207274913
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2007年
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0.695089308
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-2.103734234
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2008年
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1.730553398
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-2.207274913
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2009年
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1.820563312
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-2.513306124
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2010年
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1.768316211
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-2.244316185
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2011年
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1.518235712
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-2.120263536
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2012年
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1.354797694
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-2.120263536
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2013年
|
0.864782363
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-2.207274913
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lngdp c lniti pdl(lniti,4,2)
Dependent Variable: LNGDP
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[size=9.0000pt]
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[size=9.0000pt]
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Method: Least Squares
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[size=9.0000pt]
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[size=9.0000pt]
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Date: 05/27/15 Time: 18:34
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[size=9.0000pt]
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[size=9.0000pt]
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Sample (adjusted): 1985 2013
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[size=9.0000pt]
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[size=9.0000pt]
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Included observations: 29 after adjustments
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[size=9.0000pt]
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Variable
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Coefficient
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Std. Error
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t-Statistic
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Prob.
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C
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-2.419612
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|
0.055741
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-43.40812
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0.0000
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LNITI
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-0.296515
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|
0.178206
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-1.663888
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0.1091
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PDL01
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-0.039667
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|
0.034667
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-1.144235
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0.2638
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PDL02
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-0.060017
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|
0.037591
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-1.596599
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0.1234
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PDL03
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0.068915
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|
0.030328
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2.272322
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0.0323
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R-squared
|
0.351945
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Mean dependent var
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-2.295548
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Adjusted R-squared
|
0.243936
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S.D. dependent var
|
0.237727
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S.E. of regression
|
0.206708
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Akaike info criterion
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-0.159429
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Sum squared resid
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1.025481
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Schwarz criterion
|
0.076312
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Log likelihood
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7.311722
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Hannan-Quinn criter.
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-0.085598
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F-statistic
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3.258472
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Durbin-Watson stat
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1.597380
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Prob(F-statistic)
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0.028661
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Lag Distribution of LNITI
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[size=9.0000pt]i
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Coefficient
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Std. Error
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t-Statistic
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. *|
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0
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0.35603
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0.16508
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2.15676
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. * |
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1
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0.08927
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0.04982
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1.79188
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* . |
|
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2
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-0.03967
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0.03467
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-1.14424
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*. |
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3
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-0.03077
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0.03398
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-0.90556
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. * |
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4
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0.11596
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0.04647
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2.49550
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Sum of Lags
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0.49082
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0.19025
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2.57979
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这张做出来就感觉R方不明显
lngdp c lniti pdl(lniti,17,4)
Dependent Variable: LNGDP
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[size=9.0000pt]
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[size=9.0000pt]
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Method: Least Squares
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[size=9.0000pt]
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[size=9.0000pt]
|
Date: 05/27/15 Time: 18:37
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[size=9.0000pt]
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[size=9.0000pt]
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Sample (adjusted): 1998 2013
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[size=9.0000pt]
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[size=9.0000pt]
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Included observations: 16 after adjustments
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[size=9.0000pt]
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Variable
|
Coefficient
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Std. Error
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t-Statistic
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Prob.
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C
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-2.488775
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0.204226
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-12.18635
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0.0000
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LNITI
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0.062069
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0.093421
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0.664395
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0.5231
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PDL01
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-0.029807
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0.013747
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-2.168225
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0.0583
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PDL02
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-0.007190
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0.005982
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-1.201887
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0.2601
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PDL03
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0.003700
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0.001751
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2.112776
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0.0638
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PDL04
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0.000125
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0.000139
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0.899439
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0.3918
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PDL05
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-4.99E-05
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1.91E-05
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-2.618799
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0.0279
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|
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|
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R-squared
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0.793979
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Mean dependent var
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-2.322125
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Adjusted R-squared
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0.656631
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|
S.D. dependent var
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0.190389
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S.E. of regression
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0.111564
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Akaike info criterion
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-1.248806
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Sum squared resid
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0.112018
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|
Schwarz criterion
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-0.910799
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Log likelihood
|
16.99045
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Hannan-Quinn criter.
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-1.231498
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F-statistic
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5.780795
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Durbin-Watson stat
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2.521847
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Prob(F-statistic)
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0.010119
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Lag Distribution of LNITI
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[size=9.0000pt]i
|
Coefficient
|
Std. Error
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t-Statistic
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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*. |
|
|
0
|
-0.00416
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0.08520
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-0.04884
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. * |
|
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1
|
0.03896
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0.05548
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0.70231
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. *|
|
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2
|
0.05476
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0.03598
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1.52208
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. * |
|
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3
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0.05178
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0.02371
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2.18340
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. * |
|
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4
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0.03735
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0.01672
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2.23387
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. * |
|
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5
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0.01764
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0.01376
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1.28143
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* |
|
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6
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-0.00243
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0.01326
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-0.18303
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* . |
|
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7
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-0.01909
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0.01347
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-1.41705
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* . |
|
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8
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-0.02981
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0.01375
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-2.16822
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* . |
|
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9
|
-0.03322
|
0.01495
|
-2.22176
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* . |
|
|
10
|
-0.02918
|
0.01865
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-1.56448
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* . |
|
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11
|
-0.01873
|
0.02520
|
-0.74356
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*. |
|
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12
|
-0.00412
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0.03345
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-0.12327
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. * |
|
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13
|
0.01121
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0.04176
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0.26840
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. * |
|
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14
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0.02262
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0.04827
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0.46859
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. * |
|
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15
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0.02427
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0.05117
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0.47440
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. * |
|
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16
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0.00913
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0.04931
|
0.18515
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* . |
|
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17
|
-0.03105
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0.04530
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-0.68530
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Sum of Lags
|
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0.09593
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0.46911
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0.20449
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这张R方理想,但是滞后期数太多,感觉文章里没这样写的,不符合常规
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