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DUBE2013RStud-Commodity price shocks and civil conflict in Colombia.pdf
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作者：Oeindrila Dube (New York University)
Juan F. Vargas (Unicersidad del Rosario)References: Review of Economic Studies (2013) 80, 1384-1421
Copyright: The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Review of Economic Studies Limited.
How do income shocks affect armed conflict? Theory suggests two opposite effects. If labour is
used to appropriate resources violently, higher wages may lower conflict by reducing labour supplied to
appropriation. This is the opportunity cost effect. Alternatively, a rise in contestable income may increase
violence by raising gains from appropriation. This is the rapacity effect. Our article exploits exogenous
price shocks in international commodity markets and a rich dataset on civil war in Colombia to assess how
different income shocks affect conflict.We examine changes in the price of agricultural goods (which are
labour intensive) as well as natural resources (which are not).We focus on Colombia’s two largest exports,
coffee and oil. We find that a sharp fall in coffee prices during the 1990s lowered wages and increased
violence differentially in municipalities cultivating more coffee. This is consistent with the coffee shock
inducing an opportunity cost effect. In contrast, a rise in oil prices increased both municipal revenue and
violence differentially in the oil region. This is consistent with the oil shock inducing a rapacity effect.We
also show that this pattern holds in six other agricultural and natural resource sectors, providing evidence
that price shocks affect conflict in different directions depending on the type of the commodity.
Key words: Income shocks, Conflict, Commodity prices, Natural resources
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