Valuation and risk 6
Improving outlook not in price 6
Blended DCF- and PE-based valuation 7
Earnings revision 8
HSBC versus consensus 9
Risks to valuation 9
Earnings outlook 11
Earnings to rebound from 2010 11
Profit margin expanding 11
Earnings sensitivities 13
Power demand recovers to
accelerate order intake 14
GDP growth should rebound to more than 8% in 2H09 14
Electricity consumption growth should follow soon 14
Capacity addition back to stronger growth in 2011 15
Strong outstanding orders secure high turnover 16
Order intake to accelerate 17
Clean energy expansion
supports long-term growth 18
2020 installed capacity target increased to 1,500GW 18
RMB4trn capex for power generating industry in 2009-20 19
Wind power – near-term driver 19
Nuclear power – longer term driver 22
Dongfang – early beneficiary of clean energy development 23
Company profiles 25
Dongfang Electric (1072) 26
Harbin Power (1133) 36
Shanghai Electric (2727) 46
Appendix 56
Disclosure appendix 60
Disclaimer 64
Contents