Recent macroeconomic data broadly confirm the pickup in global real GDP growth and inflation that we forecast for 2017.Our growth and inflation forecasts for 2017 and 2018 remain broadly unchanged this month.We continue to expect 2.8% and 3.2% global real GDP growth in 2017 and 2018(at market exchange rates),up from 2.5% in 2016,with 1.9% and 2.1% growth in AEs and 4.2% and 4.7% growth in EMs.There is some incipient evidence that growth in trade volumes has bottomed out in H2 2016,suggesting that the multi-year slowdown in global capex may also be ending.