发帖
雷达卡
We expect China’s nominal GDP growth to accelerate towards 13% in 1Q17 and stay at double-digit rates for the full year. The acceleration of nominal growth is supported by the further acceleration of real economic growth and a strong rebound of GDP deflator that is primarily driven by PPI reflation.
PPI inflation should rise to 7.5%yoy by mid-year and average 5.5% for the full year 2017, above the consensus of 2.9%.
In contrast, CPI inflation is likely to rise more modestly. We forecast 2.6% on average for this year vs. 2.0% last year. Unlike in past years, food inflation seems likely to remain subdued. This implies that swings in CPI inflation will come mainly from non-food inflation. We expect this to rise in H1 as PPI inflation rises and then moderate in H2.
With CPI inflation below 3%, which seems to be the government’s inflation upper bound, we expect policy changes to focus on managing specific areas of credit growth that are deemed to be speculative and excessive. We expect the PBoC to gradually guide up the 7-day repo rate (30-day moving average) towards 3.15% from currently 2.90% in the coming months. However, we do not expect the PBOC to raise its benchmark deposit or lending rates.
China is likely to enter a nominal sweet spot, in which the acceleration of the nominal GDP growth significantly outpaces the increase of interest rate.
20170306 - Credit Suisse - China：A Nominal Sweet Spot？.pdf
(494.1 KB, 需要: 3 个论坛币)
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
