Causal Models：How People Think about the World and Its Alternatives

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书名：Causal Models：How People Think about the World and Its Alternatives
作者：Steven Sloman
出版社：Oxford University Press, Inc
出版时间：2005；
目录：
1. Agency and the Role of Causation in Mental Life 3
The High Church of Cognitive Science: A Heretical View 3
Agency Is the Ability to Represent Causal Intervention 5
The Purpose of This Book 6
Plan of the Book 8
Part I. The Theory
2. The Information Is in the Invariants 11
Selective Attention 13
Selective Attention Focuses on Invariants 14
In the Domain of Events, Causal Relations Are the
Fundamental Invariants 17
3. What Is a Cause? 21
Causes and Effects Are Events 21
Experiments Versus Observations 22
Causal Relations Imply Certain Counterfactuals 24
Enabling, Disabling, Directly Responsible: Everything’s
a Cause 26
Problems, Problems 27
Could It Be Otherwise? 31
Not All Invariance Is Causal 33
4. Causal Models 36
The Three Parts of a Causal Model 37
Independence 39
Structural Equations 40
What Does It Mean to Say Causal Relations Are
Probabilistic? 42
Causal Structure Produces a Probabilistic World:
Screening Off 43
Equivalent Causal Models 45
Inferring Causal Structure Is a Matter of Faith 46
The Technical Advantage: How to Use a Graph to
Simplify Probabilities 49
5. Observation Versus Action 52
Seeing: The Representation of Observation 52
Action: The Representation of Intervention 57
Acting and Thinking by Doing: Graphical Surgery 59
Computing With the Do Operator 61
The Value of Experiments: A Reprise 63
The Causal Modeling Framework and Levels of Causality 64
Part II. Evidence and Application
6. Reasoning About Causation 69
Mathematical Reasoning About Causal Systems 70
Social Attribution and Explanation Discounting 74
Counterfactual Reasoning: The Logic of Doing 78
Conclusion 81
7. Decision Making via Causal Consequences 83
Making Decisions 84
The Gambling Metaphor: Expected Utility Theory 85
Deciding by Causal Explanation 88
Newcomb’s Paradox: Causal Trumps Evidential
Expected Utility 89
The Facts: People Care About Causal Structure 93
When Causal Knowledge Isn’t Enough 98
8. The Psychology of Judgment: Causality Is Pervasive 101
Causal Models as a Psychological Theory: Knowledge
Is Qualitative 102
The Causality Heuristic and Mental Simulation 104
Belief Perseveration 106
Seeing Causality When It’s Not There 107
Causal Models and Legal Relevance 110
Conclusion 114
x Contents
9. Causality and Conceptual Structure 116
Inference Over Perception 118
The Role of Function in Artifact Categorization 120
Causal Models of Conceptual Structure 121
Some Implications 127
Causal Versus Other Kinds of Relations 128
Basic-level Categories and Typical Instances 129
Conclusion 131
10. Categorical Induction 132
Induction and Causal Models 133
Argument Strength: Similarity and Causal Knowledge 134
Argument Strength: Causal Principles Are Sufficient 136
Causal Explanations 137
Causal Analysis Versus Counting Instances: The Inside
Versus the Outside 138
Conclusion 140
11. Locating Causal Structure in Language 141
Pronouns 141
Conjunctions 142
If 143
The Value of Causal Models 152
12. Causal Learning 154
Correlation-based Theories of Causal Strength 156
Structure Before Strength 159
Insufficiency of Correlational Data 163
Cues to Causal Structure 164
The Interventional Advantage 167
The Benefits of Intervention 169
The Costs of Intervention 170
Conclusion 171
13. Conclusion: Causation in the Mind 174
Assessing the Causal Model Framework 174
Cognition Is for Action 177
What Causal Models Can Contribute to Human Welfare 178
The Human Mechanism 179
Notes 183
References 191
Index 201
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