20180125【充实计划】第598期 [推广有奖]

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GKINGLIU

发表于 2018-1-25 10:46:47 |只看作者 |坛友微信交流群

1.主题
Dow Theory
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:dow_theory

2.摘要
Dow Theory at a high level describes market trends and how they typically behave. At a more granular level, it provides signals that can be used to identify the primary market trend and/or indicate a change in that trend. The theory centers around identifying the trend for the Dow Jones Rail (now Transportation) Average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and using volume to confirm those trends. If both Dow Jones averages are trending in the same direction, then the entire market can be said to be trending in that direction as well. Investors can use these signals to identify the primary market trend, and then trade with that trend.

Three Assumptions
The first assumption is: The manipulation of the primary trend is not possible.
The second assumption is: the market reflects all available information.
The third assumption is: the theory is not infallible.

Dow Theory provides a mechanism for investors to use that will help remove some of the emotion. Hamilton warns that investors should not be influenced by their own wishes. When analyzing the market, make sure you are objective and see what is there, not what you want to see. If an investor is long, he or she may want to see only the bullish signs and ignore any bearish signals. Conversely, if an investor is out of the market or short, he or she may be apt to focus on the negative aspects of the price action and ignore any bullish developments.

3.感悟
重温道氏理论，颇感大道至简嚄！！
第一点：
道氏理论的精髓只有两个字：指数间共振与成交量验证；

对price action的观察，道琼斯得出两个维度：技术分析工具与交易哲学，即
TA tools==指数间共振才有趋势的预兆即趋势的临时工；
trading philosophy==成交量确认趋势的预兆则趋势由临时工转成正式工；
两者缺一不可，犹如自行车的前轮与后轮。而偶们做分析与与交易时，最容易jump before the gun！！

第二点：
道氏理论的初心就是speculation！！

其中内藏3点精义：
第一点：这套工具仅仅是为了趋势价差交易，不是为了区间交易，更不是为了价值投资！初创时就把后俩个交易选题给毙了，而你非要拿道氏工具做别的，效果可想而知。

第二点：所指趋势是长期趋势，不是那些intraday, day-to-day and possibly even secondary movements can be prone to manipulation，即日内、日间、次级折返趋势都立场不坚定，容易让大资金忽悠，唯有长期趋势永葆革命激情，在各种暗庄面前真正做到了威武不能屈、富贵不能淫、贫贱不能移。

第三点：趋势乃指数之趋势，非个股之趋势；
个股人微言轻，容易受到庄家的操控，做了大资金的提线木偶，违背了第一条假设；但general market乃全体个股大集会，打群架嗷嗷的，无人能拿指数捏来捏去。

这么精准定位的工具，自然对趋势是精准识别与精准打击！

但牢记第三胎假设：道氏利剑绝非无敌于天下，也免不了偶尔失蹄~~

buy the rumor, sell the news==消息的时效性==the market looks ahead~~

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