dynare代码如下,如果没有参数估计的话可以运行,但参数估计始终无法运行:
var
lamda c w n i y k lh le ql r b m h q qk z a psi pphi theta l DLogy DLogl DLoglh;
varexo Eps_z Eps_a Eps_psi Eps_pphi Eps_theta;
parameters
beta alpha delta gy t rho_z rho_a rho_psi rho_pphi rho_theta iy phi lhl lel gamma qlLOY cy R Theta;
%参数校准
beta=0.98;
alpha=0.50;
delta=0.025;
gamma=0.299;%土地-中间品相对占比份额
Theta=0.75;%稳态时金融机构贷款占比
cy=0.308503635;%稳态时消费与产出比
R=1.02;%稳态时利率
phi=0.0697;%土地-资本相对占比份额;
%%根据数据计算;
gy=0.235596437;%稳态时地方ZF支出与产出比
iy=0.256917;%稳态时地方投资与产出比
t=0.00269566;%稳态时地方税收与产出比
qlLOY=gy-t;%稳态时土地财政收入与产出比
lhl=0.237751586;%稳态时住宅用地与土地出让面积比
lel=1-lhl;%稳态时工业用地与土地出让面积比
rho_z=0.75;
rho_a=0.75;
rho_psi=0.75;
rho_pphi=0.75;
rho_theta=0.75;
model(linear);
#IK=delta;
#my=1-gy-cy-iy;
#YK=IK/iy;
#YLeQl=(1+beta*Theta-Theta/R)/(alpha*phi*(1-t));
#ThetaQk=(alpha*beta*(1-t)*(1-phi)*YK-1+beta*(1-delta))/(beta-1/R);
#BY=Theta/YLeQl+ThetaQk/YK;
#dd=(1-alpha)*(1-t)+BY-cy-BY/R;
%%家庭
lamda+c=a;
lamda+ql+h=a+phi;
a+psi=lamda+w;
lamda=lamda(+1)+r;
cy*c+dd*(q+h)+BY/R*(b-r)=(1-alpha)*(1-t)*(w+n)+BY*b(-1);
%%厂商
y=z+alpha*phi*le+alpha*(1-phi)*k+(1-alpha)*n;
k(+1)=(1-delta)*k+IK*i;
(1-t)*alpha*phi*YLeQl*(y-le)+Theta/R*(theta+ql-r)=(1+beta*Theta)*ql+beta*Theta*theta;
alpha*beta*(1-t)*(1-phi)*YK*(y(+1)-k(+1))+ThetaQk/R*(theta+qk-r)=beta*ThetaQk*(theta+qk);
y-n=w;
BY*b=Theta/YLeQl*(theta+ql+le)+ThetaQk/YK*(qk+k(+1));
%%房地产商
m=q+h;
q+h=ql+lh;
h=(1-gamma)*m+gamma*lh;
%%ZF
(1-gy)*y=cy*c+iy*i+my*m;
l=lel*le+lhl*lh;
%%输入项
DLogy=y-y(-1);
DLogl=l-l(-1);
DLoglh=lh-lh(-1);
%%冲击效应
a=rho_a*a(-1)+Eps_a;
pphi=rho_pphi*pphi(-1)+Eps_pphi;
psi=rho_psi*psi(-1)+Eps_psi;
z=rho_z*z(-1)+Eps_z;
theta=rho_theta*theta(-1)+Eps_theta;
y=ql+l;
end;
initval;
lamda=0.00693023;
c=-0.00693023;
w=-0.00693023;
n=-2.77556e-17;
i=-0.00693023;
y=-0.00693023;
k=-0.00693023;
lh=-0.10636;
le=-0.10636;
ql=0.0994294;
r=-1.18694e-18;
b=-0.00693023;
m=-0.00693023;
h=-0.0366596;
q=0.0297294;
qk=-8.45403e-17;
z=0;
a=0;
psi=0;
pphi=0;
theta=0;
l=-0.10636;
DLogy=0;
DLogl=0;
DLoglh=0;
end;
steady;
check;
shocks;
var Eps_z;stderr 0.01;
var Eps_a;stderr 0.01;
var Eps_psi;stderr 0.01;
var Eps_pphi;stderr 0.01;
var Eps_theta;stderr 0.01;
end;
stoch_simul(conditional_variance_decomposition=[1 4 8 16 20]) i,y,l,h,m,le,lh;
varobs DLogy DLogl DLoglh;
estimated_params;
rho_z,beta_pdf,0.5,0.1;
rho_a,beta_pdf,0.5,0.1;
rho_psi,beta_pdf,0.5,0.1;
rho_pphi,beta_pdf,0.5,0.1;
rho_theta,beta_pdf,0.5,0.1;
stderr Eps_z,inv_gamma2_pdf,0.01,inf;
stderr Eps_a,inv_gamma2_pdf,0.01,inf;
stderr Eps_psi,inv_gamma2_pdf,0.01,inf;
stderr Eps_pphi,inv_gamma2_pdf,0.01,inf;
stderr Eps_theta,inv_gamma2_pdf,0.01,inf;
end;
estimation(datafile=dataone,plot_priors=0,mode_compute=4,mh_replic=10000,mh_nblocks=10,bayesian_irf,irf=40,conf_sig=0.9) i y ql r b q h m n;
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