20180409【充实计划】第672期

昨天阅读0.5小时，累计阅读80.5小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读120小时

昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读153小时

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读120小时

充实每一天 发表于 2018-4-9 06:43
【加入充实计划】【了解充实计划】

|新充实挑战|    |公告【想成为牛人】|

昨日2小时，累计494小时

昨天阅读1小时，总计阅读29小时 9

昨天阅读1小时，总共阅读153小时

DAY #09

1.主题
Bloomberg Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading.2013

2.摘要
Corrections generally move sideways and are often erratic, time-consuming, and deceptive.
Thus, it is emotionally exhausting to trade corrections, and the odds of executing a successful trade during this type of price action are low.

here is my most important analytical and trading rule: Let the market commit to you before you commit to the market. In other words, look for confirming price action.

Waiting for confirming price action allows traders to use an evidence-based approach and to focus their attention on higher- confidence trade setups.
The risk on a single trade should never exceed 1 to 3 percent of the total portfolio size.
Bottom line, on your way to becoming a consistently successful trader, you must realize that longevity is key.

A number of psychological factors that prevent traders from becoming consistently successful:
①.lack of methodology
②.lack of discipline
③.unrealistic expectations
④.lack of patience

The best hint I can give you about defining your trading methodology is this: If you can’t fit it on a 3" × 5" card, it’s probably too complicated.

The three essential parts of a trade are :
①.Analyzing Price Charts
②.Formulating A Trading Plan
③.Managing The Trade

Always ask first, “Do I see a wave pattern I recognize?”

From an Elliott wave perspective, price gaps form most often in the wave three position—especially in wave three of wave three—because that’s when prices are traveling far in a short period of time. Traditional technical analysts refer to this type of price gap as an acceleration gap.

Traditionally, technicians define price gaps as break- away, acceleration, and exhaustion.
From an Elliott wave perspective, you might experience :
①.a breakaway gap in wave three of wave one
②.an acceleration gap in wave three of wave three
③.an exhaustion gap in wave three of wave five

Remember the three phases of risk management during a trade: (1) lessen risk, (2) eliminate risk, and (3) protect open profits.

While an impulsive decline is unfolding, prior swing highs make suitable protective stops. From an Elliott wave perspective, these extremes tend to be second or fourth waves.

Did I trail my protective stops correctly or was I too aggressive or too conservative? My simple answer remains true: There is no right or wrong way to trade—only your way of trading.

Single-Bar Price Analysis ：
By itself, this information seemed to be unimportant. But combined with the high and low of the day, which were .9192 and .9127, I could see that the daily close was above the 50 percent retracement of the daily trading range. If the bears were indeed in control of the market on April 14, then the close of the day would most likely have been in the bottom 20 percent or even 10 percent of the daily range, not above 50 percent.
If you do not already perform single- or multi- bar price analysis, I strongly recommend that you start doing so.
Understanding the relevance of the relationships among the open, high, low, and close are an integral part of technical analysis.

Use weekly price charts to determine trend, daily time frames to identify wave patterns, and intraday price charts to finesse entry and exit points of trades.

Golden Section  
The beginning or end of wave 4 will often divide an impulse wave into the Golden Section (.618 and .382) or two equal parts(.500). This relationship is called a Fibonacci price divider.
For impulse waves, the strongest Fibonacci projections pertain to the manner in which wave 4 (beginning or ending) divides an impulse wave, when either wave 1 or wave 3 is not extended.

Trading lesson learned:
Most traders react to news, but they would be better off working with the wave pattern and completely ignoring the news.
That’s because newsworthy events normally lag market trends as opposed to leading them.
The best source of information about the future path for silver was the Elliott Wave Principle, because of the way it depicts mass psychology, the true driver of financial trends.
Crowd behavior results in patterned price movements. If you understand the pattern, you can predict the market.

It’s beneficial to start with the big picture and then work down to lower degrees for evidence to support your wave count before taking a position.

expanded flats often precede strong moves.

The best practice is to set a stop just beyond the point where the wave count becomes invalid.
However, setting stops using Elliott wave analysis is a function of both wave structure and personal risk tolerance.
In that case, traders have to pick a level that they’re more comfortable with.

More important, in a flat, wave C usually has a steeper slope than wave A.
If one of the subwaves of a triangle forms a triangle, it’s usually wave E.

The most advantageous situations occur when both the preferred wave count and the alternate wave count call for a move in the same direction.

3.心得感悟
波浪交易法三部曲
The three essential parts of a trade are :
①.Analyzing Price Charts——>图表分析——>根据五波推动浪或三波修正浪确定下一浪的多空方向
②.Formulating A Trading Plan——>计划制定——>从大周期到小周期分析波浪层级，定势+定位+定点
③.Managing The Trade——>管理交易——>依照RRR调整移动止损位或依照目标价位止盈

常用三级次波浪标注：
微浪==Minute wave ——> , [ii], [iii], [iv],[v]
小浪==Minor wave ——>1, 2, 3, 4, 5
中浪==Intermediate wave ——>(1), (2), (3), (4), (5)

波浪交易员眼里的缺口：
From an Elliott wave perspective, you might experience :
①.a breakaway gap in wave three of wave one——>突破缺口在1浪
②.an acceleration gap in wave three of wave three ——>加速缺口在3浪
③.an exhaustion gap in wave three of wave five——>衰竭缺口在5浪

两种分析工具：
①.Single-Bar Price Analysis——>进出场的中位触发点
②.Golden Section analysis——>黄金分割正推反推法

4.时间统计
昨日阅读5小时，累计445小时

昨天阅读1小时，累计阅读13小时

充实每一天 发表于 2018-4-9 06:43
【加入充实计划】【了解充实计划】

|新充实挑战|    |公告【想成为牛人】|

阅读1小时，总计463小时，第430日。

阅读《毛泽东选集》至21%

我们说和平取得了，并不是说和平巩固了，相反，我们说它是不巩固的。和平实现与和平巩固是两件事。历史暂时地走回头路是可能的，和平发生波折是可能的，原因就在于日本帝国主义和汉奸亲日派的存在。然而西安事变后和平实现是事实，这种情况是由多方面促成的（日本进攻的基本方针，苏联和英美法的赞助和平，中国人民的逼迫，共产党在西安事变中的和平方针及停止两个政权敌对的政策，资产阶级的分化，国民党的分化等等），不是蒋介石一个人所能决定和推翻的。要推翻和平必须同多方面势力作战，并且必须同日本帝国主义和亲日派靠拢，才能成功。没有问题，日本帝国主义和亲日派还在企图使中国继续内战。和平没有巩固，正是因为这一点。在这种情况下，我们的结论不是回到“停止内战”或“争取和平”的旧口号去，而是前进一步，提出“争取民主”的新口号，只有这样才能巩固和平，也只有这样才能实现抗战。为什么提出“巩固和平”、“争取民主”、“实现抗战”这样三位一体的口号？为的是把我们的革命车轮推进一步，为的是情况已经允许我们进一步了。如果否认新阶段和新任务，否认国民党的“开始转变”，并且逻辑的结论也将不得不否认一年半以来一切为争取和平而斗争的各派势力努力的成绩，那末，只是把自己停顿在旧位置，一步也没有前进。

共产党员和蒋介石都不是神仙，且都不是孤立的个人，而是处于一个党派、一个阶级里头的分子。共产党有本领把革命逐步地推向前进，但没有本领把全国的坏事在一个早晨去掉干净。蒋介石或国民党已经开始了他们的转变，但没有全国人民的更大努力，也决不会在一个早晨把他们的十年污浊洗掉得干净。我们说运动的方向是向着和平、民主和抗战，但不是说不经努力能够把内战、独裁和不抵抗的旧毒扫除干净。旧毒，污浊，革命进程中的某些波折，以及可能的回头路，只有斗争和努力才能够克服，而且需要长期的斗争和努力。

对于抗日任务，民主也是新阶段中最本质的东西，为民主即是为抗日。抗日与民主互为条件，同抗日与和平、民主与和平互为条件一样。民主是抗日的保证，抗日能给予民主运动发展以有利条件。新阶段中，我们希望有、也将会有许多直接的间接的反日斗争，这些将推动对日抗战，也大有助于民主运动。然而历史给予我们的革命任务，中心的本质的东西是争取民主。“民主”，“民主”是错的吗？我以为是不错的。常常听到一些同志在不能勇敢接受工作任务时说出来的一句话：没有把握。为什么没有把握呢？因为他对于这项工作的内容和环境没有规律性的了解，或者他从来就没有接触过这类工作，或者接触得不多，因而无从谈到这类工作的规律性。及至把工作的情况和环境给以详细分析之后，他就觉得比较地有了把握，愿意去做这项工作。如果这个人在这项工作中经过了一个时期，他有了这项工作的经验了，而他又是一个肯虚心体察情况的人，不是一个主观地、片面地、表面地看问题的人，他就能够自己做出应该怎样进行工作的结论，他的工作勇气也就可以大大地提高了。只有那些主观地、片面地和表面地看问题的人，跑到一个地方，不问环境的情况，不看事情的全体（事情的历史和全部现状），也不触到事情的本质（事情的性质及此一事情和其他事情的内部联系），就自以为是地发号施令起来，这样的人是没有不跌交子的。

理性认识依赖于感性认识，感性认识有待于发展到理性认识，这就是辩证唯物论的认识论。哲学上的“唯理论”和“经验论”都不懂得认识的历史性或辩证性，虽然各有片面的真理（对于唯物的唯理论和经验论而言，非指唯心的唯理论和经验论），但在认识论的全体上则都是错误的。由感性到理性之辩证唯物论的认识运动，对于一个小的认识过程（例如对于一个事物或一件工作的认识）是如此，对于一个大的认识过程（例如对于一个社会或一个革命的认识）也是如此。