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DAY #10
1.主题
Bloomberg Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading.2013
2.摘要
The practice of placing an order a few ticks above or below a significant level may prevent entering a position prematurely.
Quite the contrary; having both a bullish and a bearish outlook makes it possible to formulate dual trade plans.
Louis Pasteur, inventor of the process of pasteurization, once said, “Chance favors the prepared mind.”
I believe that having buy-side and sell-side trades operating simultaneously allows you to do just that—it prepares you to adapt to changing market environments, thus allowing you to take advantage of trading opportunities that financial markets offer.
Even with two equally viable wave counts—one bullish and one bearish—the Wave Principle helps to formulate dual trading plans, a benefit that other forms of technical analysis simply do not offer.
it is important to remember the most critical trait of triangles: they always precede the final move of a sequence in either the wave four, B, or X positions.
The post-triangle thrust measurement serves as a minimum estimate for fifth waves.
A significant move beyond this measurement normally leads to a prolonged fifth wave.
An extended wave is an elongated impulse wave whose subwaves, especially the actionary waves, are as long as the nonextended waves at the next larger degree.
In contracting and barrier triangles, a move beyond wave C invalidates wave E but not the whole triangle. That’s because wave C might still be in progress. A move beyond wave A invalidates the whole case for a triangle.
Within a triangle, one of the initial subwaves is usually complex and will unfold as a multiple zigzag pattern or a triangle. If one of the subwaves is a triangle, it’s usually wave E.
When wave E of a triangle is a triangle itself, the posttriangle thrust measurement is still based on the larger triangle.
When the market is going against you, it is emotionally difficult to increase your position. However, this trading tactic, which requires confidence in your forecasting model, can enhance the overall average of your position.
You should increase the size of your position when the market goes against you in wave C of a zigzag.
In trading, sometimes the biggest challenge is not understanding an Elliott wave pattern but understanding yourself.
An effective trading plan includes
①.a selective entry point
②.a protective stop
③.a price target
④.a favorable risk-reward ratio
⑤.an alternate wave count
The 3rd of a 3rd impulse wave is known as the “point of recognition” and usually represents the strongest point of an impulse wave.
It’s where a majority of traders, who were on one side of the market, decide to reverse their positions.
Ending diagonals can form as the fifth wave of impulse waves and as wave C of flat and zigzag corrections.
Three techniques to use ending diagonals:
①.The extremely aggressive technique is based on each impulse wave of an ending diagonal being smaller than the previous one. To exploit this characteristic, a trader could take a position as wave five develops with a protective stop at the point at which wave five becomes longer than wave three.
②.The slightly aggressive approach for trading ending diagonals is to wait for a break of the trendline that connects the extremes of waves two and four.
③.The conservative approach for trading ending diagonals is to wait for the extreme of wave four to give way before initiating a trade.
Zigzags are sharp corrections, while flats and triangles are sideways corrections. What differentiates sharp from sideways corrections is that sharp corrections never include a new price extreme.
Another guideline in play in this chart governs the depth of corrective waves: When a five-wave structure is complete, the retracement tends to push prices back into the span of travel of the preceding fourth wave, often ending near its terminus. That is evident here, as wave (4) peaked near the end of wave 4 of (3).
A third guideline is equality: In an impulse wave, waves five and one tend toward equality when wave three extends. The subdivisions within wave (3) follow this guideline.
To offset the risk of entering a trade too early, take a small position.
Ending diagonal:
Observe that wave v contains five overlapping waves that contract and form a wedge shape. That is the signature of an ending diagonal, which signals a swift and sharp reversal ahead.
The greater the throw-over, the more violent the reversal.
In a diagonal, wave 4 almost always overlaps wave 1
After an ending diagonal is complete, the reversal back to where the diagonal began should take from one-third to one-half the time it took for the diagonal to unfold.
One key characteristic of ending diagonals is that all the initial subwaves form either single or multiple zigzag patterns.
3.心得感悟
Ending diagonals, truncated fifth waves, and fifth-wave extensions have in common:
They are all followed by a swift and sharp reversal.
终结楔形 ∩ 失败的五浪 ∩ 延长的五浪 == 均是极速暴跌的符号
Ending diagonal——>抢先捕捉闪崩！！
对终结楔形的总结要多加留意，伴随着假突破，即破高反跌与破低反涨，但也因此throw-over是终结楔形的车标。
Remember, the trader’s primary responsibilities once a position is initiated are to lessen risk, eliminate risk, and finally to protect open profits.
这句说明交易风险不是固定不动，而是不断调整，从初始止损——>跟进止损——>跟紧止盈，我们看到随着价格的不断上涨，最初的止损位被逐步提高，止损点提升成了盈亏平衡点，价格再次上涨，盈亏平衡点提升为盈利保护点，这个持续修改的过程就是不断扭亏为盈、积小胜为大胜的“让亏损缩小，让盈利奔跑”的动态风险管理图。
Dual trading plans：
制定双向交易计划仅限于波浪分析，因为千人千浪，同一图形可以解读为推动浪，也可以解读为修正浪，交易策略多空并举，恰好体现了波浪分析的多义性与灵活性。
4.时间统计
昨日阅读5小时，累计450小时
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