网络流传赴中美国代表团谈判框架及解读-【时事】第1季

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|本谈判框架为网络流传版本，总共8节，每节300字左右。阅读耗时5min|

费曼笔记：全篇充满了傲慢无知的流氓气息，把他的屁股拧下来塞到他的嘴里才能掩盖这种肮脏无理，我的朋友请相信我，这种绝户计只有搭载那些肮脏英国殖民者的武装贩奴船主才会想得出来。

——黑珍珠号船长 杰克斯派洛

===BALANCING THE TRADE RELATIONSHIP BETWEENTHE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

The Government of the United States of America (“United States”) and the Government of the People’s Republic of China (“China”) have strong overlapping interests as the world’s two largest economies and the major drivers of global growth.  At present, the United States-China trade relationship is significantly imbalanced.  United States investment and the sale of services into China remain severely constrained.  China’s industrial policies now targeting U.S. technologies and intellectual property pose significant economic and security concerns to the United States.   

There is an immediate need for the United States and China to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China by ensuring that China’s market is open to United States traders and investors on a fair and non-discriminatory basis.  China therefore undertakes to (a) eliminate improper tariff and non-tariff barriers to United States exports to China, (b) address China’s policies and practices related to technology transfer and intellectual property, (c) treat United States service providers in China on terms equal to those provided to Chinese service providers in the United States, and (d) record China’s agreement not to target United States farmers and agricultural products.  To address these issues and restore balance in the United States–China trade relationship, there is an immediate need for the United States and China to agree on a set of concrete and verifiable actions.   

解读：本节类为纲领，美方表示中国作为世界第二大经济体，采取种种不正当手段对美形成竞争优势，因而美国对中国提出的各种不正当要求都是政治正确的，中方必须做到123456，美方却没有什么要做到的。美方的态度：我不管你死活如何，这些条件都必须要答应我。这也就奠定中美就无法达成共识达成共识的基础。美方的态度不像是来谈判的，更像是老板跑来下达KPI指标的。

===SECTION1 TRADE DEFICITREDUCTION

China commits to work with Chinese importers to engage in trade transactions to achieve targets to which the Parties agree.  These transactions are specifically designed to reduce the United States-China trade deficit by $100 billion in the twelve (12) months beginning June 1, 2018, and an additional $100 billion in the twelve (12) months beginning June 1, 2019, such that the U.S. trade deficit with China will have decreased compared to 2018 by at least $200 billion by the end of 2020.  China’s purchase of U.S. goods will represent at least 75% of China’s commitment to a $100 billion increase in purchases of U.S. exports for the twelve months beginning June 1, 2018, and at least 50% of China’s commitment to an additional $100 billion increase in purchases of U.S. exports in the twelve (12) months beginning June 1, 2019.   

解读：美方下达的第一个指标，18年减少贸易顺差1000亿美元，其中至少75%购买美国商品；19年减少贸易顺差1000亿美元，其中至少50%购买美国商品。这个要求是非常不合理了，中美17年贸易顺差2758亿美元（美国统计为3752亿美元）。中国的外汇储备目前动态稳定在3万亿美元左右，如果对美每年减少1000亿美元顺差，可能最多30年就要见底。考虑到中国高科技产业发展，关键进口原材料价格上涨（半导体，石油，矿物，粮食），可能不出10年外储就会见底，因为雪球滚动起来是摧枯拉朽的。但如果继续稳定保持该外汇储备，中国将在当前的世界争霸中取得十分强势的谈判筹码。量中华之物力，结万国之欢心的时代都已经过去100多年。

===SECTION 2 PROTECTION OF AMERICAN TECHNOLOGY AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

In order to address China’s policies, laws, regulations, practices and actions that are harming United States intellectual property rights, innovation and technology development, China commits as follows:

(a)        China immediately will cease providing market-distorting subsidies and other types of government support that can contribute to the creation or maintenance of excess capacity in the industries targeted by the Made in China 2025 industrial plan;

(b)        by January 1, 2019, China will eliminate specified policies and practices with respect to technology transfer;

(c)        China will take immediate, verifiable steps to ensure the cessation of Chinese government- conducted, Chinese government-sponsored, and Chinese government-tolerated cyber intrusions into U.S. commercial networks and cyber-enabled theft targeting intellectual property, trade secrets and confidential business information held by U.S. companies;

(d)        China will strengthen specified intellectual property rights protection and enforcement;

(e)        by January 1, 2019, China will eliminate the provisions of the Regulations on the Administration of the Import and Export of Technologies and the Regulations on the Implementation of the Law on Chinese-Foreign Equity Joint Ventures identified in the U.S. request for WTO consultations in China – Certain Measures Concerning the Protection of Intellectual Property Rights (DS542); and

(f)        by July 1, 2018, China will withdraw its request for WTO consultations in United States – Tariff Measures on Certain Goods from China (DS543) and will take no further action related to this matter under the WTO Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (“DSU”).

In addition, China will not take any retaliatory action, whether in the form of tariffs on imports of U.S. products or in any other form, including unwarranted sanitary and phytosanitary (“SPS”) measures, unwarranted technical barriers to trade (“TBT”) measures, antidumpting and countervailing duties, and discriminatory inspection, quarantine and testing practices directed at imports of U.S. agricultural products, in response to actions taken or to be taken by the United States, including any new U.S. restrictions on investments or imports.  China immediately will cease all retaliatory actions currently being pursued.

China agrees to immediately cease the targeting of American technology and intellectual property through cyber operations, economic espionage, counterfeiting, and piracy. China also agrees to abide by U.S. export control laws.

解读：知识产权保护老生常谈，没有新意。里面遏制中国制造2025计划的野心昭然若揭。

===SECTION 3 RESTRICTIONS ON INVESTMENT IN SENSITIVE TECHNOLOGY

In light of China’s prevailing investment restrictions and state-directed investment in sensitive U.S. technology sectors, including industrial plans such as Made in China 2025, China confirms that it will not oppose, challenge, or otherwise retaliate against the United States’ imposition of restrictions on investments from China in sensitive U.S. technology sectors or sectors critical to U.S. national security.

解读：关于美国限制中国对敏感技术部门或者对关乎美国国家安全的部门的投资，中国政府确认不会反对、挑战或者以其它形式报复。这个条款比较霸王，事实是美国可以将几乎所有涉及美国技术的收购都看成威胁美国安全，核心目的就是不让中国产业升级。该节是对第二节的补充，就算同意该节，在实际执行中还是会有很多矛盾，关键在于涉及美国国家安全的收购或投资，中国永远是否认的。

===SECTION 4 UNITED STATES INVESTMENT IN CHINA

China recognizes that China should not distort trade through investment restrictions, and that any investment restrictions or conditions imposed by China must be narrow and transparent. U.S. investors in China must be afforded fair, effective and non-discriminatory market access and treatment, including removal of the application of foreign investment restrictions and foreign ownership/shareholding requirements. In furtherance of these principles, China will issue an improved nationwide negative list for foreign investment by July 1, 2018. Within ninety (90) days of the date on which China issues this negative list, the United States will identify existing investment restrictions that deny U.S. investors fair, effective and non-discriminatory market access and treatment. Following receipt of the U.S. list of identified restrictions, China is to act expeditiously to remove all identified investment restrictions on a timetable to be decided by the United States and China.

解读：取消投资限制，开放市场是一直在做的，仓促开放只会造成市场混乱，况且开放是相对的，投桃报李，美国也没有在开放美国市场上流露哪怕一丝诚意。

===SECTION 5 TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF BARRIERS

China’s tariffs and non-tariff barriers are significantly higher than those of the United States for most tradable goods. China commits to address U.S. concerns relating to tariffs and non-tariff barriers as follows:

(a)        by July 1, 2020, China will reduce its tariffs on all products in non-critical sectors to levels that  are  no  higher  than  the  levels  of  the  United  States’  corresponding  tariffs;    and

(b)        China will remove specified non-tariff barriers.

China also recognizes that the United States may impose import restrictions and tariffs on products in critical sectors, including sectors identified in the Made in China 2025 industrial plan.

解读：（a）2020 年 7 月 1 日前中国将把非关键部门所有产品的关税降至不高于美国相应水平。（b）中国将取消特定的非关税壁垒。以斗争求团结则团结荣，美国最善于挥动关税大棒，目前市场也没有计算过具体降低关税能带来多少贸易顺差，但是这种降低关税的举动可能削弱国内技术企业的竞争力，而且降了关税就很难再升了。

===SECTION 6 UNITED STATES SERVICES AND SERVICES SUPPLIERS

In order to achieve fair treatment with respect to U.S. services and services suppliers, China commits to improve access to its market in specified ways.

解读：美方服务业的准入也是现对于开放市场来讲的，是第四节的补充，但不管是金融服务，还是通讯服务，保险服务，美方的服务成本都是高于中国的，来了也未必有什么竞争力，最后可能还是以入股的形式，反正服务商都是一本万利，这里就是要求中国切一部分蛋糕给美国财团了。

=== SECTION 7 UNITED STATES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

In order to achieve fair treatment with respect to U.S. agricultural products, China commits to improve access to its market in specified ways.

解读：美为了实现对美国农产品的公平待遇，中国承诺以特定的方式改善对其市场的准入。农产品是特朗普的票仓，也是美国少数几个顺差的地方。这块中国也需要美国的廉价农产品，合则两利，伤则两败。

===SECTION 8 IMPLEMENTATION

China and the United States will meet quarterly to review progress in meeting agreed targets and reforms.

In the event that the United States considers that China fails to comply with any of China’s commitments in this Framework, including deficit targets, China acknowledges the likelihood that the United States will impose additional tariffs or other import restrictions on Chinese products, or on the supply of services or investment, to such extent as the United States deems appropriate. China also understands that it will not oppose, challenge or take any form of action against the United States’ imposition of additional tariffs or restrictions pursuant to this paragraph, including action pursuant to the DSU.

China will withdraw its WTO complaints regarding designations of China as a non-market economy by the United States and European Union (United States – Measures Related to Price Comparison Methodologies (DS515), European Union – Measures Related to Price Comparison Methodologies (DS516)) and will refrain from challenging the treatment of China as a non-market economy under the DSU in the future.

Additionally, within 15 days of receiving written notice of a prohibited product that may have been transshipped through one or more countries, with or without modification, China will provide full details of every such shipment to the suspected destination or destinations. If China fails to do so, or the information reveals that transshipping is occuring, the United States will impose tariffs equal to the amount of suspected transshipments.

China understands that if it fails to uphold any commitment under this Framework for Discussion, it is likely that the United States will impose tariffs on imports from China, and, where appropriate in the case of China’s commitments under subsection (c) of Section 2 or the last paragraph in Section 2, U.S. Customs and Border Protection will confiscate counterfeit and pirated goods or levy tariffs to compensate the United States for its lost technologies and intellectual property. China commits to not take any retaliatory action in response to the imposition of tariffs or confiscations by the United States pursuant to this Section.

解读：如果美国认为中国未能遵守任何中国的承诺在这个框架,包括赤字目标，美国将有可能对中国产品征收额外关税或其他进口限制，中国不会反对、挑战或采取任何形式的行动反对美国根据本段附加的关税或限制，包括根据 DSU 采取的行动。

这条可以看出美方其实是没有多少谈判筹码的，如果仅仅以提高关税的手段来打压中国，中方对于上述大部分条件都是未必能够接受的。就像对门的生意伙伴以压低你的企业利润要挟你（1）要多买他的货物（他不可能卖你急需货物，他就希望你老老实实做微笑曲线的中间）；（2）开放你的家门让他随意进入（可能未来还要睡你老婆）；（3）若他感受到你子女的冒犯，他有教训的权力而你不能帮忙出头（一方面打压你子女让他们成为窝囊废，另一方面等你老了就可以直接打你）；（4）你公司赚钱部门我要他要参股一部分（也许没过多久，就可以取你而代之）。（5）你如果不执行，我就继续以压低你的企业利润要挟你。（如果你妥协，未来他会有更多谈判筹码，可以更压得你谈不起头）

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