原文作者:Yuming Liu, Tingting Liu, Sudong Ye, Yisheng Liu
一作单位:School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
期刊名:Journal of Cleaner Production
期刊月份:2018年3月
关键词:成本效益分析
Abstracts
Energy Efficiency Retrofit (EER) of existing buildings is a key program for improving building energy efficiency in northern regions of China. This paper presents a methodological framework to conduct an economic cost-benefit analysis for EER projects, based on the calculation of costs and benefits over life cycle. By conducting a case study of a retrofit project located in Huixin Western Street Residential Area, Beijing, China, this research empirically examines its economic sustainability. The research found that in China, retrofit of existing buildings generally lack of attractiveness to investors from an economic perspective. The retrofit of heat source and outdoor heating pipe networks is cost effective, whilst buildings envelopes retrofit is not economically beneficial. For building envelopes retrofit, if replacing windows using appropriate material, retrofit of external windows represents higher cost effectiveness than that of external walls. By applying sensitivity analysis, the research further discussed the effects of relevant factors on the economic viability of retrofit projects, and found that energy price is the most sensitive factor, followed by initial costs and energy conservation rate. The selection of retrofit materials also greatly influences the economic outcomes. This research offers directions for policy makers and managers to develop incentive mechanisms and management interventions to promote the implementation of the retrofit program.
截止2015年,中国对集中供暖的北方地区原有建筑实行的节能改造总面积已经达到13.5亿平方米, 超过3.6亿平方米的既定目标将近4倍之多。作为第十三个“五年计划”的一部分,政府准备对至少5亿平方米的住宅用房加装计量供热系统。但面对超过145亿美元的高昂投资预算,政府现在面临的困难是如何从民间吸引投资来缓解政府的支出压力。本文采用成本效益分析的方法对北京市内惠新西街住宅区4号、6号、10号、12号楼(1988年建成)的节能改造项目的生命周期进行研究,以期为政府的政策决策和吸引投资提供相应的帮助。对集中供暖住宅楼的节能改造部分主要包括室外供热管道系统、楼房包围(墙、窗、屋顶等)、室内供热系统和室内新风系统。在成本效益分析中,效益部分包括了改造后电费、暖气费的节省,各系统维护费用界的节省;成本部分包括了前期规划和设计成本,新系统安装成本,旧系统拆除成本,以及设备成本等。本研究引入对改造前建筑的热能损失指数(IHL)来计算节能改造后的收益。而改造前12号及其他住宅楼的热损失指数是26.16W/m2,比政府相关要求的14.65W/m2高出许多,要在冬季平均-1.6摄氏度的情况下保持室内18摄氏度,节能改造是必要的。
研究结果显示,节能改造的实际效果比理论上低很多,可能是由于改造后的平均室温(23摄氏度)高于18摄氏度的最优节能温度。其次,节能改造带来的实际经济效益也很难引起民间投资者的注意,作者分析,这可能是由于目前较低的能源使用价格,若将能源价格提升10%,情况可能才会开始好转。
(3E论文速递观点):虽然节能改造总工程的效果并不明显,但政府可以通过提供补贴等一系列政策吸引潜在投资者。其次,若把节能系统的各个部分拆开来看,热源系统和室外供热管道的改造节能效果较为突出,市场潜力较高。考虑到政府财政支出的难处,决策部门可以考虑将节能改造分阶段执行,把资金投入到节能效果最好的部分,等财政宽裕时,在进行下一步的改造,这样可以有效节省资金,并能在一定程度上起到节能减排的作用。