原文作者:Xiawei Liao, Xu Zhao, Jim W. Hall, Dabo Guan
一作单位:Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, OX1 3QY Oxford, UK
期刊名:Applied Energy
期刊月份:2018年9月
关键词:中国 虚拟水 区域分配 电力传输 水能耦合 投入产出
Abstract
Water consumption in thermoelectric and hydropower plants in China increased from 1.6 and 6.1 billion m3, respectively, to 3.8 and 14.6 billion m3 from 2002 to 2010. Using the concept of virtual water, we attribute to different electricity users the total water consumption by the electric power sector. From 2002 to 2010, virtual water embodied in the final consumption of electricity (hereinafter referred to as VWEF) increased from 1.90 to 7.35 billion m3, whilst virtual water in electricity used by industries (hereinafter referred to as VWEI) increased from 5.82 to 11.13 billion m3. The inter-provincial virtual water trades as a result of spatial mismatch of electricity production and consumption are quantified. Nearly half (47.5% in 2010) of the physical water inputs into the power sector were virtually transferred across provincial boundaries in the form of virtual water embodied in the electricity produced, mainly from provinces in northeast, central and south China to those in east and north China. Until 2030, VWEF and VWEI are likely to increase from 5.27 and 14.89 billion m3 to 7.19 and 20.33 billion m3, respectively. Climate change mitigation and water conservation measures in the power sector may help to relieve the regional pressures on water resources imposed by the power sector.
电力生产对于水资源有较强的依赖性,而全球气候变化可能加剧区域水资源短缺和空间分配不均的风险,从而可能对电力供应或者发电效益产生负面影响。
中国电力行业(本文仅考虑热力和水力发电)耗水量近年不断增加,从2002到2010年,中国热力和水力发电分别从16和61亿立方米增长至38和146亿立方米。通过虚拟水计算,本研究将上述耗水量归因到不同地区的各类电力用户。研究结果表明,近40%的电力行业耗水量最终以虚拟水的形式被家庭用户消耗,剩余的60%则作为虚拟水被分配到工业、农业以及服务业等生产行业中。由于电力生产和消费的区域不匹配性,近一半的上述电力行业耗水以虚拟水的形式隐含在电力传输中被跨省重新分配和转移,主要从内陆经济欠发达省份流向与其临近的沿海经济发达和人口众多的省份,从而使一些内陆缺水省份的水资源短缺形势更为严峻。例如,已经面临重度水资源压力的山西省,仍通过大力发展煤电行业向京津冀地区输出大量的虚拟水资源。最后,本文通过投入产出模型预测到2030年,我国中部、南部和西北部将通过其电力行业各输出约10亿立方米的虚拟水。
本文建议,应将生产地区的水资源压力等因素纳入未来电力发展规划中。另一方面,为了服务可持续发展,电力行业可以通过发展耗水较少的可再生能源,例如太阳能和风能,或者采取改变冷却技术等手段减少对于河流等生态环境的影响。
(3E论文速递观点)研究中国电力行业水资源传输和水足迹具有现实和指导意义。本研究首先可以帮助决策者更好地管控水资源在能源系统中的消费和分配,便于能源系统资源的合理整合。其次,能够为决策者提供一个更清晰的省际虚拟水资源传输图,帮助缓解中国水资源区域分配的不合理现象,指导我国可持续发展战略的实施。