[读]城市化导致的人口迁移可以提高空气质量？

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原文题目：Urbanization-induced population migration has reduced ambient PM2.5 concentrations in China
原文作者：Huizhong Shen, Shu Tao, Yilin Chen, Philippe Ciais, Burak Güneralp, Muye Ru, Qirui Zhong, XiaoYun, Xi Zhu, Tianbo Huang, Wei Tao, Yuanchen Chen, Bengang Li, Xilong Wang, Wenxin Liu, Junfeng Liu, Shuqing Zhao
一作单位：Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China. Sino-FrenchInstitute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
期刊名：Science Advance
期刊月份：2017年12月
关键词：城市化  人口迁移  污染物排放 空气质量


Abstract
Direct residential and transportation energy consumption (RTC) contributes significantly to ambient fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in China. During massive rural-urban migration, population and pollutant emissions from RTC have evolved in terms of magnitude and geographic distribution, which was thought to worsen PM2.5 levels in cities but has not been quantitatively addressed. We quantify the temporal trends and spatial patterns of migration to cities and evaluate their associated pollutant emissions from RTC and subsequent health impact from 1980 to 2030. We show that, despite increased urban RTC emissions due to migration, the net effect of migration in China has been a reduction of PM2.5 exposure, primarily because of an unequal distribution of RTC energy mixes between urban and rural areas. After migration, people have switched to cleaner fuel types, which considerably lessened regional emissions. Consequently, the national average PM2.5 exposure concentration in 2010 was reduced by 3.9 μg/m3 (90% confidence interval, 3.0 to 5.4 μg/m3) due to migration, corresponding to an annual reduction of 36,000 (19,000 to 47,000) premature deaths. This reduction was the result of an increase in deaths by 142,000 (78,000 to 181,000) due to migrants swarming into cities and decreases in deaths by 148,000 (76,000 to 194,000) and 29,000 (15,000 to 39,000) due to transitions to a cleaner energy mix and lower urban population densities, respectively. Locally, however, megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai experienced increases in PM2.5 exposure associated with migration because these cities received massive immigration, which has driven a large increase in local emissions.


    家庭和交通能耗（RTC）产生的直接污染物排放，对于大气PM2.5浓度具有显著影响。不同于其他排放源，RTC产生的排放由居民日常活动的时间、位置、强度等决定，因此与人类分布密切相关。并且，相同排放水平下，RTC排放相比其他排放源伴随着更高的人体暴露水平。改革开放以来，中国城市化发展迅速，大量的人口迁移极大地改变了RTC排放的空间分布以及人口暴露水平。一方面，由于迁移人口转向更加清洁的能源消费，人均RTC排放将会减少。另一方面，农村人口大量涌入城市，农村人口与城市人口的RTC排放总量及污染物浓度暴露水平将发生变化。这二个过程叠加对空气质量及居民健康产生影响。目前，对于大规模人口迁移造成的污染物排放、人体暴露水平及空间分布变化，尚未有关其对于空气质量影响的定量评估。基于以上背景，本文评估了中国1980-2030年人口迁移的时间趋势和空间分布，并量化了其RTC产生的污染物排放及健康影响。

    本文发现，尽管由于城市人口的增加，城市RTC排放上升，但人口迁移造成的净影响是PM2.5暴露浓度的下降，其主要原因是城乡能源结构不同导致污染物排放不同。并且，农村居民移居城市后能源结构发生根本性变化，基本摆脱了生物质燃料，降低了各类生活源的大气污染物的排放。据估算，2010年人口迁移过程导致全国平均PM2.5暴露浓度下降3.9微克/立方米，相当于每年减少3.6万人口早逝。其中，城市人口增加导致早逝人数增加了14.2万人，由于转向清洁的能源结构以及更低的城市人口密度分别使早逝人数下降14.8万和2.9万。与此同时，由于人口高度聚集驱动当地污染物排放的大规模上升，北京和广州等超大城市的暴露水平略有上升。


    本文的研究非常有意思，对于城市化高速发展的中国，以及其他发展中国家而言，这样的研究也很有意义。无论是迁移人口、农村人口、城市人口之间的能源消耗及排放差异，还是人口迁移过程造成的省际间或省内的污染物分布变化和转移，都可以进一步的深入探究。值得注意的是，本文仅关注了迁移人口的生活直接能耗及其排放，若考虑其间接或隐含的能耗、排放等，将会是另外一个有趣的研究课题。（3E论文速递观点）

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关键词：污染物排放 人口迁移 污染物排 暴露水平 城市人口

此类不同研究方法的研究的大致结论，一般都是城市化降低污染总排放（因为面源污染难以控制，城市集中处理效率高等原因），但是环境不公平问题甚至更严重，具体结论依赖污染物类型。