20180719【充实计划】第772期

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读435小时      
挑战第一百四十三天   读13页书，完成当日目标

7月第19天
昨日阅读3小时，累计阅读355小时

1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
推荐：
山东大学陈强老师《高级计量经济学及stata应用（第2版）》-正文部分的do文件（04章-30章）
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3679489-1-1.html


2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
今天开始读：《Definitive Guide to Position Sizing》:Chapter 1
The Golden Rules of Trading
I bought my first stock when I was 16 years old in 1962. And, comsidering the knowledge I had about investing at the time, I did a fairly good job of researching the stock.  First, I read an article in Fortune Magazine on the top growth stocks for the year 1961.  The stock I picked was a small mobile home manufacturer, called Poloron, which had the highest growth in its earnings per share of any stock surveyed by Fortune during 1961.  With that I thought I had done my homework.  It was probably more homework than the average person does before he buys his first stock.
Anyway, the stock was selling for $8 per share.  I bought 100 shares with the $800 I’d saved up, which was a lot of money in those days for a 16 year old.  Within a year or so, the stock went as high as $20 per share.  In fact, I don’t think I lost any money initially ---- the stock just did a steady climb.  I was deliciously happy, and I’d more than doubled my money.  Then it started ot go down. I had no idea that you should sell falling stocks to preserve your profits, so eventully it went below my $8 purchase price.
Now that I was losing money, what did I do? Did I re-evaluate the stock fundamentals? Was it still the top stock in terms of earning per share? Was it still increasing its earnings per share?  I didn’t look at any of that information.
Did I look to see if there was a better stock, based upon my initial screening criteria ( and remember several years had now passed )?  No, I didn’t.  I’d already selected my stock, so I didn’t think I needed to do anything more. After all, isn’t success all about selecting the right stock and holding it for the rest of your life?  At least that’s what I thought at the time.
Instead, I just assumed that the same criteria held and the stock was an ever better buy now that it was valued at less than I paid for it. When it hit $4 per share, it must have been twice as good as it was when I originally bought the stock at $8, so I bought another hundred shares.  And when it hit $2per share, it seemed like it was an even better buy, so I bought another hundred shares.  I now had $1,400 invested in this stock and I owned 300 shares. ( When Warren Buffett was about that age, he bought a 40 acre farm for $1,400 ---- which he rented out! It was a much better buy. )
What do you think happened?  Within another year or so Poloron went bankrupt. My $1,400 went to zero.  I have no idea where those shares are; I wish I did because I’d frame them.  But that stock is now totally worthless.  And when I ask people at my workshops, “How many of you have stock that is now worthless?” at least half of the people in the workshop are usually willing to raise their hands.  That says something to me. A lot of companies end up going bankrupt!
So What Was my mistake? Conventiona1 wisdom would say that I picked the wrong stock just think about it. In the early 1960s, I invested $1,400 in the stock market If I had putthat $1400 in Microsoft when it was founded in 1975, that inveslment would be worth mi11ions. If I had Put that $1,400 in Inte1 when it was founded in 1968 or even when it  went public in 1978, that investment would be worth mi11ions. Even an investment in the origina1 DOW Jones Industria1  stock, Genera1 Electric, in 1968 wou1d be worth a sma1l fortune today, I could have put $l,400 into Berkshire  Hathaway when it was founded in 1964 and today have over $5 mi11ion from that one investment so it wou1d seem that my mistake was that I invested in the wrong s1ock.
That argument, in my opinion, is totally fallacious. For every stock I mentioned that wou1d have made me millions, there are thousands of companies that, justlike the one I invested in, no longer exist. So the first argument is that my chances of finding one of those great companies that would have made me mi11ions were very, very sma11. If your criteria is picking the right stock, no matter how good your criteria are, you are sti1l more 1ikely to pick a stock that wi1l eventua11y go bankrupt than you are of finding one that wi1l make you a fortune.
Second, let's look at the stock I bought. It went from $8 to $20 ---- that's a 150% gain ---- in about year. That doesn't sound like I bought the wrong slock. Where did I go wrong?
        I didn't establish any initia1 risk parameters to say,"I'm wrong about this stock if it drops to this point." If you don't know how to do that, then a 25% drop is usua1ly sufficient to say that something is wrong. Thus, my initia1 stop 1oss should have been about $2 per share so that I would get out if the stock dropped to $6 per share.
        Second I had no way to take profits. I could have said:"If this stock doub1es, I'll get out." I could have established a 25% trailing stop. That means that whenever the stock makes a new high, a 25% drop from that point becomes my exit.  Table 1-1 shows my stock at various points and how a 25% trailing stop would have worked.
Notice, as shown in the table, that as the price gets higher, my trailing stop gets higher. And as the price goes down, my stop doesn't change. Thus, when the price goes to $20 and then back down to $15, I'm out.  I have a profit of $7 per share Since my initial investment was $8, I have a profit of 87.5%. However, since my initial risk would have been only $2, my $7 profit is actually 3.5 times my initial risk.
Because I didn't have a stop, my initial risk was $8 per share. That means that at the high price of $20 per share, I only had a profit that was 1.5 times my initial risk.
……

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
      看到大师年青时就亏了那么多钱，还真有点对自己佩服：我是很大年纪才亏了很多的钱。只是一直避免去认真面对自己的真心想法和信念。同时也没有从风险回报比率的角度去思考这些。
        那么，如果再来一次的话，还会犯同样的错误。还会亏钱，还会亏的几乎为零。因为信念没有改变，就会在遇到相同的情况时产生同样的想法，做出相似的决策……
        系统性地解决是如此重要，以至于如果没有设计好，并且经过检验的系统，就不入市！

昨日阅读1小时，累计阅读115小时

今天学习和阅读约5小时，累计阅读约655小时。
学习和投资心得：
《证券分析》过时了吗？
格雷厄姆的《证券分析》第一版出版于1934年，距今已经76年，比我们很多人的爸爸妈妈甚至爷爷姐姐年龄还要大，经过76年之后，《证券分析》过时了吗？1984 年，在哥伦比亚大学纪念格雷厄姆与多德合著的《证券分析》出版50周年的庆祝活动中，巴菲特——这位格雷厄姆在哥伦比亚大学的投资课上唯一给了“A＋”的最优秀的学生进行了一次演讲，他在演讲中回顾了50年来格雷厄姆的追随者们采用价值投资策略持续战胜市场的无可争议的事实，有力反击了那些认为格雷厄姆在《证券分析》书中首次提出的价值投资策略已经过时的论调，总结归纳出价值投资策略的精髓，在投资界具有非常大的影响力。巴菲特说道，格雷厄姆和多德“寻找价值相对于价格具有一个显著的安全边际”的证券分析方法难道已经过时了吗？许多教授在他们编写的大部头教科书中都作出这一论断，他们口口声声宣称股票市场是有效的，也就是说股价反映了所有关于公司发展前景和经济状况的所有信息。这些理论家们声称，由于聪明的股票分析师利用了所有可获取的信息进行分析判断，从而使股价总是正确无误地保持在合理的水平，因此根本不存在价值被市场低估的股票。至于那些年复一年击败市场的投资者，只不过是类似彩票连续中奖的少数幸运儿。一位教授在他编写的当今十分流行的教科书中写道：“如果股价完全反映了所有可获取的信息，这些投资技巧将毫无用处。”“哈哈，也许如此。但我想向大家介绍一群年复一年击败标准普尔500股票指数的投资者，他们的经历无可辩驳地表明，那种认为他们持续战胜市场只是偶然事件的简单看法是很难成立的，我们必须深入探究其根本原因。之所以如此，一个关键事实是，这些股市大赢家我都非常熟悉，并很早就被公认为超级投资者，其中成名最晚的那位也在15年前就名扬一时。如果事实并非如此，我只是最近搜索了成千上万的投资记录，从中选出几个业绩优秀的人在此向各位介绍，那么，你听到此处就可以把我赶走了。我要补充说明的是，他们的投资业绩记录都已经过严格的审计。另外，我还要补充说明一下，我还认识许多选择这些投资管理人的客户，他们这些年来获得的投资收益与这些投资管理人公开的投资业绩记录完全相符。“我想要研究的这一群成功投资者，他们拥有一位共同的智力族长——本·格雷厄姆。但是这些孩子长大离开这个智力家族后，却是根据非常不同的方法来进行投资的。他们居住在不同的地区，买卖不同的股票和企业，但他们总体的投资业绩绝非是因为他们根据族长的指示所作出完全相同的投资决策，族长只为他们提供了投资决策的思想理论，每位学生都以自己的独特方式来决定如何运用这种理论。”
“来自‘格雷厄姆与多德部落’的投资者共同拥有的智力核心是：寻找企业整体的价值与代表该企业一小部分权益的股票市场价格之间的差异，实质上，他们利用了二者之间的差异，却毫不在意有效市场理论家们所关心的那些问题——股票应该在星期一还是星期二买进，在1月份还是7月份买进等等。简而言之，企业家收购企业的投资方式，正是追随格雷厄姆与多德的投资者在购买流通股票时所采用的投资方式——我十分怀疑有多少企业家会在收购决策中特别强调交易必须在一年中的某个特定月份或一周中的某个特定日子进行。如果企业整体收购在星期一或星期五进行没有任何差别，那么，我无法理解那些学究们为什么会花费大量的时间和精力研究代表该企业一小部分股权的股票交易时间的不同将会对投资业绩有什么影响。”“追随格雷厄姆与多德的投资者根本不会浪费精力去讨论什么 Beta、资本资产定价模型、不同证券投资报酬率之间的协方差，他们对这些东西丝毫也不感兴趣。事实上，他们中的大多数人甚至连这些名词的定义都搞不清楚，追随格雷厄姆与多德的投资人只关心两个变量——价值与价格。”