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20180721【充实计划】第774期   [推广有奖]

ktl8818 发表于 2018-7-21 08:58:30 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
2018.7.21
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scucook103 发表于 2018-7-21 09:18:39 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
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贝玉丰 发表于 2018-7-21 09:27:06 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
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qiuyifeng696626 发表于 2018-7-21 09:31:43 来自手机 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
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obaby85 在职认证  发表于 2018-7-21 09:55:41 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群

7月第21天
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1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接
推荐:《Numerical Analysis》 8th edition
by Richard L. Burde 
数值分析 及配套的 教师手册
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6320245-1-1.html


2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
今天继续读:《Definitive Guide to Position Sizing》:Chapter 1
The Golden Rules of Trading
…...
The Golden Rules of Trading
1.        Never open a position in the market without knowing your initial risk. Initial risk is the point at which you will get out of the position to preserve your capital. This point is your initial stop loss and it estatbishes your initial risk (which we’ll call R for short).  In my first investment if I had said, “Get out if the stock drops to $6 per share,” I would have been following the first rule.  My initial risk, or R, would have been $2 per share.
2.        Define your profit and loss in your trades as some multiple of your initial riak. We call these R-multiples.  If your risk is $100 and you make $200, you have a 2R gain.  If your risk is $100 and you lose $150, then you have a 1.5R loss. It’s a pretty simple concept.  In other words, you must start thinking in terms of risk and reward. In my first investment, had I followed the 25% trailing stop rule, I would have had a profit of 3.5R or a profit that was 35)5 bigger than my initial risk.
3.        Limit your losses to 1R or less.  If you set an initial stop level and then change your mind when it goes down (i.e., because you don’t want to take a loss ), then you are in real trouble.  This is what produces 4R losses or larger and those can turn a great system into a losing system very easily.
4.        Make sure that your profits, on average, are bigger than 1R. Let’s say you have one 10R profit and nine 1R losses. If you add those up you have 10R in profit and 9R in losses ---- a total gain of 1R.  Thus, even though you lost money on 90% of your trades, you still made money overall because your average gain was huge. That's the power of having an average gain that is much bigger than 1R. And if you were to let your risk represent 1% of your equity, then that 1R gain would mean you had a profit of 1%. You'll learn more about this as we get into position sizing.
What typically has been known as the golden rule of trading is a summary of these first four rules: Cut your losses short and let your profits run. What we’re talking about here is doing your best to make sure your losses are 1$ or less and that your profits are much bigger (if possible) than 1$.  Incidentally, the Nobel Prize for economics in 2002 was awarded to psychologist Daniel Kahneman, and economist Amos Tversky for their development of “Prospect Theory.” While the topic sounds a bit complex, what Kahneman and Tversky actually showed, in my opinion, is that people have a natural bias to cut profits shor and let their losses run ---- which is the opposite of the Golden Rule.
5.        Understand your trading system in terms of the mean (the average R) and the standard deviation (variability in the results) of your R-multiples. Your system, when you trade it, will generate a number of trades. The results of those trades can be expressed as a multiple of your initial risk, or a set of R-multiples. You should know the characteristics of that distribution for any system that you plan to trade. And most people never know this.
If you spend some time and calculate the mean and standard deviation of your R-multiples, you’ll know a lot about your system. The mean R-multiple is the expectancy of your system. The mean R-multiple is the expectancy of your system. In other words, expectancy tells you what to expect from your system in terms of R-multiples over many trades. If your expectancy is 0.33R, then you know that after 20 trades you’ll probably be up by about 6R to 7R (0.33R × 20 trades). And that’s valuable information to know.
The standard deviation of R tells you the variability of your system. It tells you how much your results are likely to vary after any given sample of 20 trades. A small standard deviation suggests that the results from each sample will be similar, whereas a large standard deviation suggests that the result from each sample could be quite different.
Let’s say your expectancy is 0.33R, but your standard deviation is 3R. What this means is that even though your average gain after 20 trades should total about 6.6R, you only have about a 65% chance of being profitable after 20 trades because of the huge variability. Part I of this book is all about expectancy. Understanding the mean and standard deviation of your R-multiple distribution is very important to telling you how to trade the system you adopt.
6.        Design some core objectives for your trading. Those objectives must be stated in terms of what you’d like to make as a goal for your trading and/or what you would call ruin for your system ---- the point at which you’d stop trading.  When you have those two things, then you have a chance to meet your objectives and you can also calculate the optimum position sizing to meet your objectives. We’ll be covering this topic later in this book.
7.        Practice proper position sizing in order to meet your objectives. In a lecture to his students at a 1991 retreat in Hawaii, Ed Seykota said that the most important question you could ever ask yourself as a trader, once you know the expectancy of your system, is “How much should I invest?” Position sizing will be covered extensively in other parts of this book. Here are some of the key rules involving position sizing :
l        Invest a percentage of your equity so that you invest more as you win and less as you lose.
l        You might start out with a percentage of your equity that has a very low probability of reaching your ruin point and then switch to another percentage of your equity when you have enough money to make sure that you don’t reach ruin.  Models for doing this will be discussed extensively later.
8.        Calculate your System Quality NumberSM to give you some idea of how to position size your system in order to meet your objectives. Generally, the better the System Quality NumberSM, the easier it is to use position sizing to meet your objectives. In addition, I’d also recommend that you simulate trading your system at least 100 times . In version 4.0 of The Secrets of the MastersTM Trading Game you can plug in the R-multiples of your system and then live through trade after trade, with each one selected randomly. Do 50 or 100 such simulations and you’ll really begin to understand how your system will perform and why it has the System Quality NumberSM that it has.
9.        Know the big picture (what factors are influencing the market); have a way to measure these factors; and have a business plan that helps you capitalize on these factors. You then need three or four systems that meet rules 1 through 8.
10.        Follow the ten tasks of trading and master yourself. This rule is the key that makes everything else work. The ten tasks of trading are the core of my Peak Performance Course for Traders and Investors.
……

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
       理解,理解,理解:有实践的理解和只是看到知识点的理解实在是相去太远。
       R乘数,是R乘数决定了交易:以R乘数为出发点来进行交易的本质是把风险放在第一位进行考虑,在入市之前就确认风险,并且随时注意风险点的变化(随价位变化,行情变化,市场的整体变化而变化)。一但达到了风险点,就行动。
       这是R乘数的定义。是计划的数学体现。这本书就是讲这十大规则的吧!好好研读。好好练习。好好验证。
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jaywill 发表于 2018-7-21 10:03:15 来自手机 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
充实每一天 发表于 2018-7-21 08:18
【加入充实计划】【了解充实计划】

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zgs3721 发表于 2018-7-21 10:14:40 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
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bonds 发表于 2018-7-21 10:15:15 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群
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