公司估值中贴现率的选择

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对公司价值的估计，大家认为10%的贴现率如何？

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关键词：公司估值 贴现率 公司价值 选择 贴现率

建议采用8%，10%偏高

能给出详细的理由么？
2# lanceyang1974

Discount rate should be a function of the company's fundamentals. You can't just use 10% for all companies.

公司是不一样，但是贴现率的选择不能因公司而异。如果甲公司用10%的贴现率，乙公司用8%的贴现率，那么结果将不具有可比性。楼上的可能说要考虑到风险报酬率，关于此，我比较同意巴菲特的观点，设置风险报酬率没有丝毫的必要。相对来说，用无风险报酬率（长期国债利率）来贴现比较简单，我之所以说贴现率选择10%，主要是考虑到安全边际。可是我有一点不太明白的，为什么我国的国债市场报酬率相对比较低呢？这是不是说国家在与民争利呢？
4# ectopic

Well, every company is different, so it makes sense that discount rates are different too.

I don't know how you do your comparative analysis, but common comparative valuation measures like P/Es also embed different growth and risk expectations.

pe值只是一个大概参考，在公司估值中起不到太大的作用（个人看法，有不同意见咱们可以探讨），我是说给企业在经营生命周期中形成的所有净现金流量找一个合理的贴现率。
6# ectopic

Well, consider 2 companies that generated the same amount of cash flows this year, but one operates in the consumer staples sector, while the other operates in the IT sector. Now if you are buyer, would you value the 2 companies the same? Obviously not. The competitive landscape in consumer staples is typically much more stable than in technology, so it makes sense to use discount the cash flows differently.

I mentioned P/E only because you started talking about comparative valuation. Personally I do not use any valuation methods, because I trade stocks, I do not buy businesses. Valuation is useless to me. But P/E is very useful for gauging market expectations.

是的，如果两个公司在2009年底净现金流量相同，但我们绝不能说这两个公司价值一样，我们考虑的因素还有很多。正如阁下所说，“The competitive landscape in consumer staples is typically much more stable than in technology”。可是在这一点上我有不同的看法，我并不认为高科技企业的内在价值就一定高，或者就一定低。我判断的依据只有一个：即考虑到企业在整个经营周期（并不仅限于2009年）所能产生的净现金流量，以合理的贴现值贴现——当然只能是大致估测。实际操作上肯定有很大难度，所幸的是我们只需要找出很明显的胖子，而不必强行界定体重100公斤就是胖瘦的分界线。
再说P/E，不否认它在讨论公司相对价值时所起的作用，实际上它是很简捷实用的，但是为什么我说它有很大的局限性呢？第一，它没有考虑到企业未来经营状况，而企业在未来所能收获的净现金流量才应是我们最关心的；第二，P值就像科斯托兰尼的狗，它一会儿跑到主人的前面去，一会儿又跑到主人的后面去，总之，它没有安静的时候。还是以高科技企业为例，它在高科技股泡沫未破灭之前，其P/E值是寻常公司难以望其项背的，而其破灭之初，它又远远地落后了。
我想我们分歧的关键在于，我认为买股票就是买公司，而你好像有更有趣的想法，“Valuation is useless to me.”我很想知道，如果价值不起作用，那么什么应该起作用呢？
8# ectopic

Valuation is useless to traders because we only care about capital gains. When we buy, we buy because we expect price to go higher. As long as price keeps going up, the stock's fundamental value is irrelevant.

You can see that the trader's approach is different from Warren Buffett's investing philosophy. When Buffett buys, he expects to hold "FOREVER" (unless the business suffers a substantial change unexpectedly e.g. Moody's).  This means he does not lock in any capital gains, he does not care one bit if price goes through multiple cycles.

This brings up an important question. How many people have a mentality like Buffett's? I don't know any.

I know many people think they are investing like Buffett, but the reality is they are not as good as Buffett, they do not have the same skill, nor the mentality, and it is no surprise that they do not get the same results. People should realise it is extremely difficult to imitate Warren Buffett.