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[英语] [推荐] 对译: Land of the rising price [推广有奖]

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老鱼父 发表于 2008-8-3 23:13:00 |显示全部楼层 |坛友微信交流群

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译者 leeth

Land of the rising price
涨价是非地

Jul 17th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Japan has long hoped for a bit of inflation—but not this sort
日本一直期盼着能有点儿通胀----但决非这种类型的

JAPAN, people like to argue, is one place that should greet the return of inflation with joy. The country, after all, has been in the grip of deflationary forces for over a decade. Even after an economic recovery which began in 2002, the lingering deflationary mindset has meant firms have struggled to raise prices or pay better wages. Lacking animal spirits, a long-predicted virtuous circle—where higher profits would lead to bigger pay packets, leading to more spending in the economy, and so on—has failed to come about, so the recovery has depended too much on exports. A burst of inflation, the Japan bulls say, will provide just the shot in the arm that the economy needs.
人们都说,日本肯定很期盼通胀回归。毕竟这个国家已经在通缩阴影下度过了10多年了。即使在2002年开始的经济复苏后,持续通缩的惯性让企业不得不提高价格或支付更多薪水。由于对市场缺乏信心,长期以来预测的有效循环----即高利润使收入水平提高,从而引导更多经济上的投入,并周而复始----并没有产生,导致经济复苏严重依赖出口。看好日本经济的人称,通胀的爆发将给日本经济注入一针强心剂。



Prices are indeed on the rise (see left-hand chart). In the decade to 2007, prices fell on average by 0.2% a year. On July 15th the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its forecast for “core” inflation in the fiscal year ending in March 2009 to 1.8%, up from 1.1% three months ago. Goldman Sachs thinks core inflation, which strips out volatile fresh-food prices and is the most widely followed measure, reached 2% in June, up from 1.5% in May. As elsewhere in Asia, higher prices for oil and food are the main cause of the jump in headline inflation. But even Japan’s “core core” inflation rate, which strips out both energy and fresh food, is ticking up, as higher prices for wholesale goods pass on to consumers.
物价确确实实在上涨(见左表)。 截止2007年,过去的10年中物价平均每年下跌0.2%。 7月15日,日本银行将本财政年度(截至2009年5月)的核心通胀率预计从三个月前的1.1%提高到1.8%。高盛称剥离了不稳定的生鲜食品价格后的、 最为广泛使用的核心通胀率从五月的1.5%上升为六月的2.0%。 在亚洲的其他地区,高企的油价和食品价格是通胀率大幅上涨的主因。 但即便是日本剥离了生鲜食品价格和能源价格的“高度核心”通胀率也因为批发商将高物价转嫁给消费者而不断攀升。

All this, says Christopher Wood of CLSA, a broker, is “unambiguously positive”, because companies will regain their pricing power and because employees will, in time, get wage rises. Mr Wood, who has consistently predicted the unfolding of America’s financial crisis, is as bullish on the Japanese stockmarket as he is bearish on the American one.
CLSA的一位名叫Christopher Wood的经纪称这一切是“绝对利好”,因为公司将重新掌握定价权,届时员工也将获得加薪。一直预言美国将发生金融危机的Wood先生是日本股市的多方,同时也是美国股市的空方。

Push v pull
争议

But others question the bulls’ assumptions. John Richards, of the Royal Bank of Scotland in Tokyo, points out that since inflation is almost entirely due to dearer food and energy, both of which Japan imports, rather than because of rising domestic demand, it reflects an unwelcome worsening of the country’s terms of trade.
然而有人质疑多方的设想。 苏格兰皇家银行东京分行的John Richards指出,由于通胀并不是因为日本内需扩大,而是因为食品和能源这两样日本依赖进口的资源价格上扬而产生的,因此这种通胀反映出本国贸易条件的恶化。

The prices of Japan’s exports relative to imports have deteriorated for at least four years, but until recently growth in companies’ sales volumes had more than made up for that. Japan’s recovery was underpinned by strong exports, first to China and more recently to Europe and oil-exporting countries. Yet demand from Asia, which takes half of Japan’s exports, has slowed this year. In value terms, exports to America are shrinking. Now, export growth to Europe looks as if it is wobbling.
尽管日本出口价格和进口价格的比率已持续恶化了至少4年,但目前为止企业销售额的上涨缓和了这一情况。日本的经济复苏最初是以向中国强劲的出口为基础,最 近发展到欧洲和各石油输出国。然而站到日本出口市场半壁江山的亚洲市场,今年的需求增长开始放缓。 美洲市场的出口金额也在减少。当前,欧洲市场的出口增长也不稳定。

Higher prices not only do harm to Japan’s external strength. Contrary to Mr. Wood’s assertions, the evidence so far suggests that they are eating into workers’ real earnings, and hurting companies’ profit margins at home (as they have difficulty passing on higher costs). That undermines the willingness of firms to hire or invest. The pressure on companies to cut costs is nothing like it was when Japan was trying to dig itself out of its post-bubble mess. Still, company profits are now falling from record levels. In the first three months of 2008 operating profits were 17.5% lower than a year earlier. Historically, free cash flow is a good predictor in Japan of business investment, which, behind exports, has helped drive Japan’s six-year recovery. Now the BoJ’s latest Tankan survey of business conditions, published on July 1st, sketches a picture of worsening sentiment. Consumers are also showing signs of belt-tightening.
高物价水平不仅仅是伤害了日本的出口实力。事实上与Wood先生的意见正好相反,目前的种种迹象表明高物价水平正在侵蚀劳动者的实际收入,掠夺企业的国内 利润(企业难以将高成本转嫁出去)。这伤害了企业雇佣员工和投资者的积极性。与日本泡沫经济破灭后自救的压力相比,企业背负的这种削减开支的压力自然不可 同日而语。 然而,企业的利润还是从历史性高位开始下跌了。2008年1季度,企业营业利润比去年同期下跌了17.5%。在历史上自由资金流量一直是日本商业投资的风 向标,和出口一起推动了日本6年经济复苏。日本央行7月1号最新出版的关于经济运行状况的短观调查显示出一片哀鸿遍野。消费者中也已经出现勒紧裤带过日子 的迹象。

Not unambiguously good for Japan, in other words, but inflation may not be unambiguously bad either. An unnatural share of Japanese households’ financial assets—51% or ¥785 trillion ($7 trillion)—are stuffed under the futon or in deep freezes, or held in bank accounts that pay no interest. This risk-averse habit is a legacy of the post-bubble deflation years, when the zero nominal return on cash looked pretty good compared with the alternatives.
换句话说,通胀虽然对日本来说并非绝对利好,但也不是绝对利空。日本家庭财产中有51%(相当于785万亿日元/7万亿美元)之多--这个比例相当不合理 --处于搁置状态,或是存在没有利息的银行账户里。这种规避风险的习惯是后泡沫经济通缩时代遗留下来的,那个时候即使是现金回报率为零也比其他选择好得 多。

No longer, perhaps. This week the BoJ kept its benchmark interest rate on hold, at just 0.5%. Richard Jerram, of Macquarie Capital Securities in Tokyo, points out that real interest rates are now firmly negative, among the lowest of any G8 economy. With the value of savings now trimmed by inflation, he wonders whether households will at last shift savings out of cash and into other assets—shares, property—offering the prospect of higher returns. After all, households’ interest income has fallen by almost nine-tenths since the early 1990s (see right-hand chart).
但这个时代恐怕一去不复返了。本周,日本央行维持0.5%的基准利率不变。麦格理资本证券东京分部的Richard Jerram指出,目前的实际利率已经为负,是8国集团中最低的。随着存款因通胀而缩水,他认为老百姓可能最终会将存款变为各种其他形式的回报率更高的资 产—如股票,房产等。毕竟,老百姓的利息收入已经从上世纪90年代初下降了将近九成。

Predictions of just such a switch have been made countless times over the years. The difference now is that inflation expectations are rising fast. A BoJ survey released on July 4th suggested that ordinary Japanese think inflation has run at 10% over the past year. Historically, it has taken some form of external shock or pressure from overseas, known as gaiatsu, to induce rapid and profound change in Japan (as a result of the 1970s oil shock, for example, Japan started liberalising its finance industry). Inflation, argues Mr Wood, even of the bad, cost-push variety, will prove another form of gaiatsu. And when Japanese group behaviour changes, he warns, it will change fast.
在过去几年中,无数人做出过关于上述转变的预测,而不同之处在于如今通胀的预期正急速增长。 日本央行7月4日发布的一项调查标明,日本民众认为去年的通胀率约为10%。历史上,来自海外的外部冲击或压力—日本称之为外压(gaiatsu)--往 往能够导致日本迅速而深远的变革(例如上世纪70年代的石油危机致使日本开始放松对金融行业的管制)。Wood先生认为, 即便是成本推动型的不良通胀,也是“外压”的一种形式,并警告说日本人的行为不变则以,一变即速。

Will that happen yet? One reason to think not is that the central bank has not been able to raise interest rates anything like as quickly as it would like. It has long wanted to “normalise” monetary policy, raising rates to somewhere near 2.5-3%, but darkening economic clouds abroad and at home keep conspiring to prevent that. As well as keeping rates on hold, at its regular policy-board meeting this week, the BoJ lowered its forecast for growth this fiscal year, from 1.5% to 1.2%.
那么上述情况是否会发生?持否定意见的一个原因是央行并不能随心所欲的迅速上调利率。央行一直希望实现货币政策常态化,将利率上调到2.5-3%附近, 但国内外严峻的经济形势使之难以实现。在本周的政策发布例会上,日本央行将本财年的经济增长预期从1.5%降低为1.2%,并保持利率不变。

For as long as money remains cheap, the second element of the optimists’ case—corporate restructuring—is unlikely to take hold. Without the discipline of higher rates, “zombie” companies will continue to eke out a living on a drip of cheap credit, while plenty of unproductive sectors and smaller businesses will escape the kind of consolidation they need. Falling profits and a lack of reform: that hardly makes for a bullish story quite yet.
只要资金成本保持低廉,乐观者方案中的第二要素—公司重组—就不太可能大规模实现。如果没有高利率的舒服,“行尸走肉”般的企业就能靠廉价的贷款苟延残喘,大量效益低下的中小企业将躲过行业整合。在利润不断下跌和改革创新缺失的情况下,是很难实现经济景气的。

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