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1. Ïà¹ØÊý¾ÝÊÕ¼¯
ΪÁ˸üºÃµÄ·ûºÏÏÖÔÚµÄʵ¼ÊÇé¿ö£¬ÎÒÃÇÑ¡ÓÃÁË2001¡ª2004Äê¹²4ÄêµÄ¼¾¶ÈÊý¾Ý£¬·ÖÎö¾ÓÃñ´¢Ðî¶îµÄÓ°ÏìÒòËØ¡£ËѼ¯µÄÊý¾ÝÏÖÁÐÈçÏ£º
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2001.110058.85102.71.9827306642408.74032.75
2001.214765.15101.41.9837024772123.391263.45
2001.37358.1799.91.9831624852262.31624.06
2001.46123.0199.71.9846440052346.432509.79
2002.17891.1499.21.7167094482314.514965.87
2002.28953.4399.21.7151582712267.412983.49
2002.36425.3199.31.7169043702273.022427.26
2002.44720.5899.61.7175031832301.52771.6
2003.16673.85100.91.7192918292759.697657.19
2003.211353.73100.31.7174858182412.263106.73
2003.35447.16101.11.7169043702535.542790.99
2003.48640.54103.21.7175031832635.82729.05
2004.116415.541031.7192204533196.698254.53
2004.29620.971051.7186544842698.241920.29
2004.38337.69105.21.7169043702797.341666.27
2004.47959.77102.41.7175031832937.764096.65
2. Ä£ÐÍÉ趨ºÍ¼ìÑé
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Y ¡ª¡ª¾ÓÃñ´¢Ðî¶î
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X4--------ÈËÉíÏÕͶ±£¶î
X5--------È˾ù¿ÉÖ§ÅäÊÕÈë
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Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/14/05 Time: 11:30
Sample: 2001:1 2004:4
Included observations: 16
VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.
C57351.4124650.112.3266190.0423
X10.1454440.1192241.2199280.2505
X2-794.4077241.6983-3.2867730.0082
X33748.3575791.9740.6471640.5321
X40.0002490.0004100.6083190.5565
X56.7737682.1879563.0959340.0113
R-squared0.718069 Mean dependent var3424.998
Adjusted R-squared0.577103 S.D. dependent var2019.011
S.E. of regression1312.974 Akaike info criterion17.47797
Sum squared resid17238995 Schwarz criterion17.76769
Log likelihood-133.8238 F-statistic5.093926
Durbin-Watson stat1.797255 Prob(F-statistic)0.013996
´ÓÉÏÃæµÄ³õ²½ÄâºÏ½á¹û¿É¼û£¬¿É¾öϵÊýR2µÄÖµ½ÏºÃ£¬F¼ìÑéͨ¹ý£¬ËµÃ÷Ä£ÐÍÄâºÏÉпɡ£½âÊͱäÁ¿X2, X5µÄtÖµ½ÏΪÏÔÖø£¬´Ó¾¼ÃÒâÒåÀ´·ÖÎö£¬µ±Ïû·Ñ¼Û¸ñÖ¸ÊýÉý¸ßʱ£¬¾ÓÃñ´¢Ðî¼õÉÙ£¬·ûºÏ¾¼ÃÒâÒ壻È˾ù¿ÉÖ§ÅäÊÕÈëÔö¼Ó£¬¾ÓÃñ´¢Ðî¶îÔö¼Ó£¬Ò²·ûºÏ¾¼ÃÒâÒå¡£µ«X1,X3,X4µÄtÖµ¾ù²»ÏÔÖø£¬ÇÒ¹ÉƱ³É½»¶îÒÔ¼°ÈËÉíÏյľ¼ÃÒâÒå²»·ûºÏ£¬ËµÃ÷Ä£ÐÍ´æÔÚ×ŶàÖع²ÏßÐÔ¡£
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y c x10.065899y c x20.000108y c x30.099393
y c x40.262239y c x50.358475
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y c x5 x10.269844y c x5 x20.599979
y c x5 x30.261566y c x5 x40.283995
ÓÉÉϿɼû£¬x5Óëx2µÄÄâºÏ³Ì¶È×îºÃ£¬¼ÌÐø½øÐÐÈý¸ö½âÊͱäÁ¿µÄÄâºÏ£¬µÃµ½µÄR2µÄÐÞÕýÖµ·Ö±ðΪ£º
y c x5 x2 x10.632065y c x5 x2 x30.581008y c x5 x2 x40.567485
ÓÉÉϿɼû£¬x5¡¢x2ºÍx1µÄÄâºÏ³Ì¶È×îºÃ£¬¼ÌÐø½øÐÐËĸö½âÊͱäÁ¿µÄÄâºÏ£¬µÃµ½µÄR2µÄÐÞÕýÖµ·Ö±ðΪ£º
y c x5 x2 x1 x30.601322y c x5 x2 x1 x40.599447
Óɴ˿ɼûX3,X4µÄÒýÈë¶Ô±»½âÊͱäÁ¿µÄÒâÒå²»´ó£¬Òò´ËɾȥÕâÁ½¸ö±äÁ¿£¬ÔÙ¶ÔY=+1X1+2X2+5X5+½øÐÐ×îС¶þ³Ë»Ø¹é£¬µÃµ½ÈçÏÂÏÔʾ½á¹û£º
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/14/05 Time: 12:33
Sample: 2001:1 2004:4
Included observations: 16
VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.
C65657.8019739.583.3262010.0060
X10.1558260.1066781.4607120.1698
X2-807.4507217.3731-3.7145840.0030
X57.2536641.4336515.0595750.0003
R-squared0.705652 Mean dependent var3424.998
Adjusted R-squared0.632065 S.D. dependent var2019.011
S.E. of regression1224.684 Akaike info criterion17.27107
Sum squared resid17998211 Schwarz criterion17.46422
Log likelihood-134.1686 F-statistic9.589368
Durbin-Watson stat1.757439 Prob(F-statistic)0.001649
´ÓÉϱßÖпÉÒÔ¿´³ö£¬ÆäÖÐX1µÄtÖµÈÔ²»ÏÔÖø¡£ÎÒÃǽøÐо¼ÃÒâÒåµÄ·ÖÎö£¬·¢ÏÖ¹ÉƱ³É½»¶î¶Ô¾ÓÃñ´¢Ðî¶îµÄÓ°Ïì²»ÏÔÖø¿ÉÄÜÊÇÒòΪ¾ÓÃñ½øÐйÉƱͶ×ÊËùÓõÄ×ʽðÓ¦¸ÃÊÇ´¢ÐîÑ»·ÍâµÄ×ʽð£¬ËüÓë³öÓÚ½÷É÷ÐÔ¶¯»úµÄ´¢Ðî´æ¿îÌæ´úÐÔ½ÏС,¹ÊÈ¥µôX1..ÔÙ¶ÔY=+2X2+5X5+½øÐÐ×îС¶þ³Ë»Ø¹é£¬µÃµ½ÈçÏÂÏÔʾ½á¹û£º.
Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/14/05 Time: 12:39
Sample: 2001:1 2004:4
Included observations: 16
VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.
C59062.5820036.642.9477280.0113
X2-732.1103220.1803-3.3250490.0055
X57.3839251.4919614.9491400.0003
R-squared0.653315 Mean dependent var3424.998
Adjusted R-squared0.599979 S.D. dependent var2019.011
S.E. of regression1276.968 Akaike info criterion17.30973
Sum squared resid21198412 Schwarz criterion17.45459
Log likelihood-135.4778 F-statistic12.24902
Durbin-Watson stat1.469082 Prob(F-statistic)0.001022
´ËʱģÐ͵ĿɾöϵÊýR2,F¼ìÑéÖµ½ÏÔÀ´µÄÄ£ÐͶ¼ÓÐËù¸ÄÉÆ£¬Í¬Ê±£¬ËùÓÐÊ£ÓàµÄ±äÁ¿µÄtÖµ¶¼Í¨¹ýÁ˼ìÑé¡£´ÓÉÏÃæµÄ·ÖÎöÖпÉÖª£¬¸÷²ÎÊý¹À¼ÆÖµÒ²·ûºÏ¾¼ÃÒâÒå¡£
£¨3£©GrangerÒò¹ûÐÔ¼ìÑéÒÔ¼°ÐÕûÎó²îУÕý
½øÒ»²½½øÐо¼Ã±äÁ¿¼äµÄGrangerÒò¹ûÐÔ¼ìÑ飬½á¹ûÏÔʾÈý½×ÖͺóµÄÏû·Ñ¼Û¸ñÖ¸ÊýÊÇÒýÆð¾ÓÃñ´¢Ðî¶î±ä»¯µÄÒòËØ£¬ÈçÏ£º
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 06/14/05 Time: 12:49
Sample: 2001:1 2004:4
Lags: 3
Null Hypothesis:ObsF-StatisticProbability
Y does not Granger Cause X213 0.59446 0.64130
X2 does not Granger Cause Y 7.49269 0.01877
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Dependent Variable: Y1
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/14/05 Time: 13:16
Sample(adjusted): 2002:1 2004:4
Included observations: 12 after adjusting endpoints
VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.
C-9.85E-141.46E-12-0.0672480.9483
X514.7405941.00E-144.74E+140.0000
X61-640.02572.60E-12-2.46E+140.0000
E1.0000001.54E-156.51E+140.0000
E(-1)-1.0000001.95E-15-5.13E+140.0000
R-squared1.000000 Mean dependent var132.2383
Adjusted R-squared1.000000 S.D. dependent var3457.328
S.E. of regression4.66E-12 Akaike info criterion-49.05163
Sum squared resid1.52E-22 Schwarz criterion-48.84959
Log likelihood299.3098 F-statistic1.51E+30
Durbin-Watson stat2.548868 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000
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ARCH Test:
F-statistic0.832106 Probability0.383129
Obs*R-squared0.921822 Probability0.336997
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/14/05 Time: 13:26
Sample(adjusted): 2002:1 2004:4
Included observations: 12 after adjusting endpoints
VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.
C2835380.1036847.2.7346170.0210
RESID^2(-1)-0.2854340.312908-0.9121980.3831
R-squared0.076818 Mean dependent var2180796.
Adjusted R-squared-0.015500 S.D. dependent var2572708.
S.E. of regression2592569. Akaike info criterion32.52521
Sum squared resid6.72E+13 Schwarz criterion32.60603
Log likelihood-193.1513 F-statistic0.832106
Durbin-Watson stat1.362875 Prob(F-statistic)0.383129
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White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic0.635145 Probability0.651732
Obs*R-squared3.133369 Probability0.535760
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/30/05 Time: 19:07
Sample: 2001:4 2004:4
Included observations: 13
VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.
C-7.59E+095.14E+09-1.4756290.1783
X540790.5851105.230.7981680.4478
X5^2-7.6387409.527205-0.8017820.4458
X61.49E+081.01E+081.4682350.1802
X6^2-735820.5501560.9-1.4670610.1805
R-squared0.241028 Mean dependent var2118538.
Adjusted R-squared-0.138457 S.D. dependent var2473387.
S.E. of regression2639068. Akaike info criterion32.69347
Sum squared resid5.57E+13 Schwarz criterion32.91076
Log likelihood-207.5076 F-statistic0.635145
Durbin-Watson stat2.428943 Prob(F-statistic)0.651732
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ARCH Test:
F-statistic1.845169 Probability0.207416
Obs*R-squared1.871512 Probability0.171302
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/14/05 Time: 13:32
Sample(adjusted): 2002:2 2004:4
Included observations: 11 after adjusting endpoints
VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.
C8.90E-246.60E-241.3482060.2105
RESID^2(-1)0.4898340.3606041.3583700.2074
R-squared0.170137 Mean dependent var1.36E-23
Adjusted R-squared0.077930 S.D. dependent var1.94E-23
S.E. of regression1.86E-23 Sum squared resid3.11E-45
F-statistic1.845169 Durbin-Watson stat1.937503
Prob(F-statistic)0.207416
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Dependent Variable: Y
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/14/05 Time: 17:20
Sample(adjusted): 2001:4 2004:4
Included observations: 13 after adjusting endpoints
VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.
C39533.0615781.092.5050910.0407
X52.4683030.8156473.0261920.0192
X6-392.6110164.0646-2.3930260.0480
D2-3632.834627.7078-5.7874600.0007
D3-3907.832625.8427-6.2441120.0004
D4-2983.334618.5267-4.8232910.0019
R-squared0.931380 Mean dependent var3683.055
Adjusted R-squared0.882365 S.D. dependent var2081.573
S.E. of regression713.9356 Akaike info criterion16.28350
Sum squared resid3567928. Schwarz criterion16.54425
Log likelihood-99.84275 F-statistic19.00217
Durbin-Watson stat2.256683 Prob(F-statistic)0.000605
ÓÉÉÏÃæ½á¹û¿ÉÒÔ¿´³ö£¬¿É¾öϵÊýR2=0.931380£¬ÄâºÏ³Ì¶È½ÏºÃ£¬ÇÒFÖµ½Ï´ó£¬Í¨¹ýÁËF¼ìÑ飬ͬʱ¸÷¸ö½âÊͱäÁ¿µÄTÖµ¶¼½Ï´ó£¬Í¨¹ýÁËT¼ìÑé¡£¸÷²ÎÊý¹À¼ÆÖµÒ²·ûºÏ¾¼ÃÒâÒå¡£´ËÄ£ÐÍÎÞ¶àÖع²ÏßÐÔ£¬¶ÔÄ£ÐͽøÐÐÒì·½²î¼ìÑ飬µÃ³ö½á¹ûÈçÏ£º
ARCH Test:
F-statistic2.150456 Probability0.173256
Obs*R-squared2.123827 Probability0.145024
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/14/05 Time: 20:57
Sample(adjusted): 2002:1 2004:4
Included observations: 12 after adjusting endpoints
VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.
C388627.1107177.23.6260230.0046
RESID^2(-1)-0.4409110.300667-1.4664430.1733
R-squared0.176986 Mean dependent var277358.6
Adjusted R-squared0.094684 S.D. dependent var275586.2
S.E. of regression262215.0 Akaike info criterion27.94273
Sum squared resid6.88E+11 Schwarz criterion28.02355
Log likelihood-165.6564 F-statistic2.150456
Durbin-Watson stat1.530591 Prob(F-statistic)0.173256
White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic2.120648 Probability0.212532
Obs*R-squared9.724540 Probability0.204728
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/30/05 Time: 19:29
Sample: 2001:4 2004:4
Included observations: 13
VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.
C-7.90E+084.30E+08-1.8371850.1256
X53616.6654145.0160.8725330.4228
X5^2-0.6547850.778308-0.8412930.4386
X6154847588492438.1.8233580.1279
X6^2-76359.0942017.71-1.8173070.1289
D2388245.3188538.32.0592380.0945
D330401.98198477.60.1531760.8842
D4287495.8188789.01.5228420.1883
R-squared0.748042 Mean dependent var274456.0
Adjusted R-squared0.395300 S.D. dependent var264061.2
S.E. of regression205340.5 Akaike info criterion27.57798
Sum squared resid2.11E+11 Schwarz criterion27.92565
Log likelihood-171.2569 F-statistic2.120648
Durbin-Watson stat1.434518 Prob(F-statistic)0.212532
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Y=39533.06+2.468303X5-392.6110X6-3632.834D2-3907.832D3-2983.334D4
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Dependent Variable: Y1
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/15/05 Time: 13:17
Sample(adjusted): 2002:1 2004:4
Included observations: 12 after adjusting endpoints
VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.
C-7.55E-131.17E-11-0.0642820.9518
X514.7405941.96E-142.42E+140.0000
X61-640.02575.96E-12-1.07E+140.0000
E1.0000005.35E-151.87E+140.0000
E(-1)-1.0000007.22E-15-1.38E+140.0000
D21.69E-112.40E-110.7026950.5210
D33.21E-131.53E-110.0210080.9842
D4-1.06E-111.31E-11-0.8058000.4655
R-squared1.000000 Mean dependent var132.2383
Adjusted R-squared1.000000 S.D. dependent var3457.328
S.E. of regression7.70E-12 Akaike info criterion-48.10816
Sum squared resid2.37E-22 Schwarz criterion-47.78489
Log likelihood296.6490 F-statistic3.17E+29
Durbin-Watson stat2.176497 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000
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ARCH Test:
F-statistic0.038024 Probability0.849725
Obs*R-squared0.046279 Probability0.829670
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/15/05 Time: 13:18
Sample(adjusted): 2002:2 2004:4
Included observations: 11 after adjusting endpoints
VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.
C2.25E-231.12E-232.0108620.0752
RESID^2(-1)-0.1103800.566054-0.1949990.8497
R-squared0.004207 Mean dependent var2.10E-23
Adjusted R-squared-0.106436 S.D. dependent var2.48E-23
S.E. of regression2.61E-23 Sum squared resid6.12E-45
F-statistic0.038024 Durbin-Watson stat1.359721
Prob(F-statistic)0.849725
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