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Asia/Pacific Economics
Inside Asia/Pacific
China: China’s Under-consumption Over-stated
A common thesis is that 'over-consumption' has made
the US an economy of US$10 trillion in personal
consumption, while China is an economy of only US$1.6
trillion in personal consumption because of its
'under-consumption'. If US consumers were to stop
spending, the negative impact on the rest of the world
would be too large for the Chinese consumers to play a
meaningful offsetting role. We disagree.
India: 2011 Growth Outlook First Cut – to Sustain
7%+ Growth Rates
Our economics team expects global growth at 3.7% in
2011. Against this backdrop, we estimate India’s 2011
GDP growth at 7.5% compared with 7.8% in 2010.
Domestic demand will continue to be the primary driver,
but we believe that capex, private consumption and
infrastructure spending will underpin growth in F2012.
ASEAN: Preferring Domestic Demand Plays in a
Slow and Steady World
We roll out our 2011 forecasts and revise 2009 and 2010
forecasts. In ASEAN, macro investment ideas will center
on: 1) the shape of the global recovery; 2) the tilt in price
pressures; and 3) the phasing out of policy measures
and what this means. In terms of pecking order, we
prefer Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia then Singapore.