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2010年4月中国宏观经济研究报告

发布时间: 来源:人大经济论坛
【出版时间及名称】:2010年4月中国宏观经济研究报告
【作者】:摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】:pdf
【页数】:75
【目录或简介】:
China: Renminbi Exit from USD Peg
We believe that, in the coming months, the Renminbi will
exit from the hard peg against the USD, which has been
in place since July 2008. We maintain our long-standing
call that the most likely ‘window of opportunity’ for
Renminbi exit from USD peg is early 3Q or the summer,
through an initial adjustment of 2-3% to be followed by
more gradual appreciation such that the cumulative
appreciation of the year would be 4-5%.
Hong Kong: No Sign of Capital Outflows
There is certainly anxiety in the market with regard to the
possible reversal of capital flows from Hong Kong upon
policy tightening across the globe in 2010, overturning
the impressive gains in asset prices that underpinned
domestic demand recovery last year. Nevertheless, to
date, we have not yet witnessed actual capital outflows
from the monetary base and we reiterate that the stock
of excess liquidity accumulated since late 2008 is large,
offering a meaningfully sizable buffer for outflows before
interest rates see significant upward pressure.
Taiwan: Sticking to Loose Monetary Conditions
The Central Bank of China, Taiwan (CBC) concluded its
1Q monetary policy meeting and kept its policy
rediscount rate unchanged at an historical low of 1.25%.
Although there was no change in Required Reserve
Ratio (RRR), the CBS has already started to drain
liquidity since 4Q09 through daily open market
operations. Liquidity conditions in Taiwan should
continue to be abundant in our view, inflation
expectations could rise and asset prices should be
supported.
China
Renminbi Exit from USD Peg: Whether, Why, When, How 4
Concerns about China's 'High' Debt Unwarranted 13
Takeaways from Premier Wen's Press Conference 21
Hearty Appetite ≠ Overweight: Putting China's
'Overinvestment' In Context
22
One Country, Three Economies: Urbanization as a Primary
Driver of Growth
28
Hong Kong
Monetary Condition Monitor 55
Taiwan
Sticking to Loose Monetary Conditions; Asset Prices Continue
to be Supported
60
Exit Strategy Will Begin, but Liquidity Remains Abundant 62
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