World Outlook - Between "soft patch" and recession

Table of Contents
Global Overview
Between “soft patch” and recession ............................................................................................................................... 3
Geopolitics
Merging conflicts? .......................................................................................................................................................... 11
US Equity Strategy
2012 Outlook – value and risk ........................................................................................................................................ 13
European Equities
Like it’s 1993 .................................................................................................................................................................. 16
Bond Market Strategy
Fighting the clock ........................................................................................................................................................... 18
Commodities
Commodities outlook into 2012 ..................................................................................................................................... 20
US
The expansion will continue ........................................................................................................................................... 22
Japan
Marginally positive growth in 2012 ................................................................................................................................ 26
Euroland
A deeper recession ........................................................................................................................................................ 28
Germany: Technical recession in H1 to break positive labour market trend ................................................................... 30
France: Deeper below the waterline ............................................................................................................................... 31
Italy: Fighting the clock ................................................................................................................................................... 32
Spain: Reforming in times of recession .......................................................................................................................... 33
Smaller EMU economies: Crisis not resolved yet ........................................................................................................... 34
UK
A slower recovery than the Great Depression ................................................................................................................ 35
Other European countries
Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Switzerland ........................................................................................................................ 37
Central and Eastern Europe
Only the less open economies can avoid recession ....................................................................................................... 39
Peripheral dollar bloc
Headwinds from Europe taking a toll .............................................................................................................................. 41
Asia (ex Japan)
Growth is slowing gradually as US/EU demand weakens………………………………………………………………….....43
China: Further downward revision to Q1 growth ............................................................................................................ 45
India: A year of below-trend growth ahead ..................................................................................................................... 46
Latin America
Growing but dragged by global trends ............................................................................................................................ 47
Brazil: The government is responding aggressively to keep growth above 3% ............................................................. 49
EMEA
Little room for policy maneuver ..................................................................................................................................... 50
Russia: Growth set to be fuelled by higher investment .................................................................................................. 52
Forecast tables
Key Economic Indicators ................................................................................................................................................ 53
Interest Rates ................................................................................................................................................................. 54
Exchange Rates .............................................................................................................................................................. 55
Long-term Forecasts ...................................................................................................................................................... 56
Contacts ........................................................................................................................................................................ 57