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Landmark Land Acquisition Bill (LAB) has been
passed by the Parliament: The details of the bill will be
important to understand scope and execution timelines.
However, the bill should provide eminent domain for
infrastructure projects designated as priority.
Contrary to much investor opinion, we don’t think
this is a “buy the rumour” / “sell the news” event:
We believe LAB is a big milestone in helping the nation
to achieve its Master Plan of Acceleration & Expansion
of Indonesia’s Economic Development 2011-2025, laid
out by the President earlier this year. Investor skepticism
about Indonesia’s execution capabilities is huge and
expectations are low. We believe the market should
view this bill as a structural positive.
Valuations likely to re-rate: Our economist believes
that this bill could help raise infrastructure spending from
~4% of GDP to ~6% in 2015. A rise in infra spending
could also kick-start a potential investment-led growth
cycle for Indonesia – which would not only increase the
duration of the consumption-led growth cycle but also
improve its long-term visibility and potentially reduce
inflationary pressures structurally. Improvement in
long-term growth prospects will drive Indonesia’s
valuations, in our view.
Potential inflection in government capabilities: We
believe that the passage of the Land Acquisition Bill
through Parliament will be an important trigger for the
market. It will not only remove the biggest roadblock to
potential infrastructure spending but also will
demonstrate the Indonesian government’s capability in
instituting significant reforms to kick-start an
investment/infrastructure cycle.
We reiterate key plays on the Land Acquisition Bill:
PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk, PT Indocement Tunggal
Prakarsa Tbk, PT Semen Gresik (Persero), PT[hide][/hide]