World Top 10 iBank_法国巴黎银行BNP Paribas两份2012展望报告（英语，164P）
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渣打银行年度经济展望《2012 Global Focus： Fragile West, Resilient East》(英文，1
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Table of ContentsJP Morgan 《2012中国房地产展望报告》（英文，81pages）
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瑞信Credit Suisse《2012亚洲投资策略展望》（英语，260p）
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The Economic Outlook for 2012 5
De-synchronizing the global economy 5
Global growth outlook 8
Will a mild recession in the euro area drag the rest of the
world into a renewed downturn? 9
Still-weak IP growth and inflation in most of the EM world 11
Summary 11
Soft output picture for all major EM regions 12
EM inflation: stabilizing after a lengthy decline 16
EM currencies: hostage to developments in the euro zone 21
Latin America 27
Argentina: Fine-tuning the model? 28
Brazil: Continuation of the easing cycle in 2012 due to lower GDP
growth and declining inflation 33
Chile: Not a worrisome slowdown until now 38
Colombia: Growth may hit speed bump 42
Mexico: So far, not so bad 46
Panama: Bolstered by domestic demand 51
Peru: A challenging socio-political environment 55
Venezuela: Re-election or bust 59
Europe, Middle East and Africa 65
Hungary: Back from the edge of the cliff? 66
Israel: Monetary policy responds to external shocks 71
Poland: Life with a weaker zloty 76
Russia: A somewhat safer ground than in 2008 81
South Africa: 2012 – Another year of underperformance 86
Turkey: Waiting for the success that may come tomorrow 91
Ukraine: Delayed policy response to sharply higher risks 96
Non-Japan Asia 101
China: Slowing for longer 102
Hong Kong: Recession risk rises in 2012 107
India: Hope springs eternal 111
Indonesia: Fine for now 116
Korea: Monetary policy is tilting towards easing 121
Malaysia: More pump-priming to come 126
Singapore: Growth risks dominate, for now 130
Taiwan: It’s all about exports and the election 134
Thailand: Shaken and stirred 139
Long-term sovereign FX debt ratings 143
Key websites 145
Previous publications 151
Key dates 156
Gross Financing Needs for 2012 160
Balance of payments financing needs 161
Government funding needs 175
Quarterly and annual forecasts for developed countries 186
Summary macroeconomic data for developed countries 187
Summary macroeconomic data 192