Watch that consensus
Entering 2012, we are facing economic uncertainty on the grandest of scales. A year ago, policymakers
and forecasters were cautiously optimistic that the worst was over. That view was clearly wrong. Even
before the eurozone crisis came to the boil, the pace of global growth was fading. Both the US and the
UK had underperformed. Concerns over excessive emerging market inflation were replaced with worries
about too little growth, particularly in China.
The dominant issue, however, was – and still is – the eurozone. We argued in How to solve the euro’s
problems (Stephen King and Janet Henry, 20 September 2011) that a break-up could trigger another great
depression. There can be no doubt that policymakers now recognise this risk. That is good news. However,
despite signs of greater urgency to deal with the problem, investors remain mostly unconvinced.
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