Capturing the Consumer Opportunity in China:
Perspectives from a Leading Distributor – Presentation by
Jebsen & Co’s Group Managing Director
As part of J.P. Morgan’s Hands-on China series, we recently hosted a
presentation by Helmuth Hennig, Group Managing Director of the Hong Kongbased
conglomerate Jebsen & Co. Ltd. Established over 100 years ago, Jebsen
has weathered the ups and downs of China’s economy, and in more recent
years has begun to diversify from a trading firm primarily focused on the
industrial sector into a leading marketing and distribution company for premium
consumer products. Covering the automotive, industrial, alcoholic beverage,
luxury watch and marine sectors – the firm represents over 200 well known
brands such as Porsche, Raymond Weil, Casio, Bosch, Bollinger and the
company’s own Blue Girl Beer. Mr. Hennig shared that Jebsen had a record year
in 2011, with revenues of about HK$14 billion overall, out of which HK$11 billion
was attributed to Mainland China. Mr. Hennig offered the following outlook on
the consumer opportunity in China, as well as evolving dynamics in the
distribution business:
· Jebsen is reasonably optimistic about near-term prospects for the major
market segments in which it operates and expects stable growth in 2012,
with some moderation in pace seen in 2010 and 2011. Considering
conditions in the manufacturing sector and housing market, growth may
plateau in the retail space, but is unlikely to correct sharply. This expectation
is based on the belief that the government will do everything within its power
to support growth during a leadership transition year.
· Ten years after the first dealership was opened in 2001, China has become
the second biggest market for Porsche globally. Last year approximately
20,000 vehicles were sold (vs. 26,000 in the US) and the expectation is that
China will become the single biggest market for Porsche globally in 2012.
The company operates a JV with Porsche at the wholesale level, which in
turn appoints dealerships across China (5 out of 30 are self-operated,
excluding HK and Macau). At the retail layer, carmakers now prefer to work
with fewer but larger car dealership groups. Mr. Hennig believes that from
Porsche's perspective, the ideal market share ceiling for the largest
distributor is 15%. This means that Jebsen's current market share of 25%
may decline over time, however this will be offset by overall volume growth.
· The group's strategy is to work with newer entrants (typically unaffiliated with
major global groups) that are being compelled to expand into the Mainland
Chinese market, but currently lack the operational capabilities and local
relationships. In the car component business, Jebsen is branching out from
a pure distribution model to begin working with several small and mediumsized
players to establish a manufacturing cluster in Dalian, where
companies can share back-offices.
· Mr. Hennig believes that policymakers' discussions about reforming the
consumption tax for certain luxury products will lead to eventual reductions,