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Great Monetary Easing Part Two (GME 2) Underway
Our global economics team believes that central banks in the developed world will ease monetary policy aggressively over the coming months. As our co-head of global economics, Joachim Fels, highlights, this Great Monetary Easing Part Two (GME2) will be aimed at “minimising recession risks, preventing deflation and helping governments to stabilise debts and deficits.
GME to Help Reduce Funding Risks…
Aggressive monetary easing by Developed Markets (DM) has meant reduced funding risks and should also support the region’s export growth outlook.
…but Will Also Revive Upside Risks to Inflation
However, we believe it will also bring upside risks to our inflation forecasts. This therefore increases the risk that the tactical easing in monetary policy that we are forecasting may be delayed.
What’s next?
BoE had announced an increase in its QE program by 50bn (US$79bn) on February 9, 2012.
After the first round of long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) to the tune of 489bn (US$643bn), the ECB is scheduled to implement a second round of LTRO on February 29.
Our US economics team is expecting the Fed to announce QE3 of US$500-750 billion in 2Q2012.
Particularly if the Fed implements QE3, this can be expected to put upward pressure on the yen. As such, the BoJ would be unable to avoid additional easing in response.
To assess the potential inflation risks to the region, we would closely tra