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Solid activity data from Korea
The Security Summit in Seoul is already generating headlines, but we
look forward to key Korean economic activity reports for Feb, plus
Mar surveys (all Fri) and trade data (over the weekend), which we
believe will be solid. Feb data should be boosted by LNY effects, but the
Korean NSO tends to correct for this (especially the IP data). Taking the
Jan-Feb average, we expect IP should continue to rise, with key exports
products, such as high-tech goods and vehicles, leading the gain.
Meanwhile, Mar surveys (consumer on Tue, FKI business on Wed) are
expected to both be above the neutral 100. Korea consumers should get a
lift from stable inflation and a higher KOSPI, while businesses are likely
less worried about the Euro-area, even though a stronger KRW is eating
into their profitability.
Singapore & Thailand IP rise again
Like Korea, manufacturing in Singapore and Thailand had a good
start to the year and that should be confirmed in IP data out this week.
For Singapore (today), we expect a second consecutive monthly gain
(5.9%m/m, sa) and with base effects working in favor of Feb, the overyear-
ago comparison should swing from -8.7% in Jan to +9.7% last month.
For Thailand (Wed), the rebound has been much more pronounced post the
floods last year with a third consecutive double-digit monthly increase
lifting headline growth back into positive territory.
Over the weekend: Korea March trade & China PMI
On Sun, there are two scheduled data releases worth noting, one from
Korea and the other from China. For Korea, exports