CONTENTS
Overview – Tight oil and LNG, upstream bias, rising capex 1
Price Performance 8
Summary of Energy Themes 10
COMMODITIES
Commodities Oil – Less downside, more upside 18
Geopolitics – Crossing the Rubicon 30
Oil Products – Refinery closures: Too little too late? 33
LNG – In a tighter spot 44
US Natural Gas – Finding a new coal floor 48
European Natural Gas – Complex equations 52
Coal – Year of the dragon? 56
US Power – Cheap gas and mild weather pummel power 60
Carbon – Nothing to shout about 63
CREDIT
US High Grade Energy & Pipelines – We favor pipelines over energy 68
US High Yield Energy – Weak natural gas weighing on spreads 69
US High Yield Coal – Challenging fundamentals look set to persist 70
US High Grade Electric Utilities – Regulated utilities remain stable 72
European High Grade Oil & Gas – Oil price bias and disposals support sector ratings 73
European High Grade Utilities – Modest expectations 75
Asia High Yield Coal – Getting too hot 77
Asia High Grade Energy – Constructive outlook for upstream producers; event risk manageable 78
Asia High Grade Utilities – Stable outlook, fuel cost remains key credit driver 79
EQUITIES
Americas Integrated Oil – Our favorites include SU, HES, and IMO; Supermajors will
likely underperform 82
European Integrated Oil – Upstream bias 85
European Integrated Oil – Sasol: Strong results & growth 88
Asia ex-Japan Oil & Gas – Value in upstream growth, pricing reform may take time 90
US Exploration & Production – Continue to favor oil producers 93
Canadian Exploration & Production – Income and growth: the best of both worlds 96
Europe Exploration & Production – Good, but not over yet 99
US Independent Refiners – Strong support for the seasonal trade; Could see cyclical
upturn pending capacity shutdowns 100
European Refining & Marketing – Too little, too late 104
US Oil Services & Drilling – The next Mega-Cycle takes hold 107
Europe Oil Services & Drilling – Signs of a pick-up 109
US Coal – Challenging thermal coal outlook, prefer metallurgical exposure 112
Asia ex-Japan Coal – High inventories and supply growth limits positives of demand growth 115
US Power – Rising expectations 120
European Utilities – Under shadow 122
US Clean Technology and Renewables – Improving data points, though ultimately end
market trajectory remains the key question 126
European Clean Technology & Sustainability – Green growth in an uncertain world 130
Equity Valuation Table 133



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