1 论文标题
The Rise of Middle Kingdoms Emerging Economies in Global Trade
2 作者信息
Gordon H. Hanson
3 出处和链接（比如，NBER working paper No.11000）
NBER Working Paper 17961, March, 2012
4 摘要
In this paper, I examine changes in international trade associated with the integration of low- and middle-income
countries into the global economy. Led by China and India, the share of developing economies in global
exports more than doubled between 1994 and 2008. One feature of new trade patterns is greater South-South
trade. China and India have booming demand for imported raw materials, which they use to build
cities and factories. Industrialization throughout the South has deepened global production networks,
contributing to greater trade in intermediate inputs. A second feature of new trade patterns is the return
of comparative advantage as a driver of global commerce. Growth in low- and middle-income nations
makes specialization according to comparative advantage more important for the global composition
of trade, as North-South and South-South commerce overtakes North-North flows. China’s export
specialization evolves rapidly over time, revealing a capacity to speed up product ladders. Most developing
countries hyper-specialize in handful of export products. The emergence of low- and middle-income
countries in trade reveals significant gaps in knowledge about the deep empirical determinants of export
specialization, the dynamics of specialization patterns, and why South-South and North-North trade
differ.