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| 文件名: GS 2012 China Outlook.pdf | |
| 资料下载链接地址: https://bbs.pinggu.org/a-1092720.html | |
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第一篇为高盛Goldman Sachs发布的2012年中国大区展望报告,全文共99页,内容如下所示,非常非常好的报告,本人强烈推荐。 第二篇为高盛Goldman Sachs发布的2012年中国大区信用展望报告,全文共146页。同样是非常好的报告,推荐! 资源取得不容易,大家也知道高盛的年费有多贵,最重要的是免费分享给大家,希望大家共同进步,今后共同为民族争光,希望能有加分! P.S.本人其他一些高盛关于各类新能源行业的报告也推荐各位关注 https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-1417743-1-1.html 还有高盛房地产行业报告请关注 https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-1415566-1-1.html 本文持续更新,敬请关注。 Table of contents 目录 The bottom line: A gradual recovery 2012 macro backdrop: Growth slower, policy friendlier Structural concerns to persist, but imminent hard landing risk is exaggerated Earnings to slow, but already reflected in valuations Liquidity and fundflow outlook fairly favorable Sectoral preferences: Tepid cyclical bias to start Top picks and thematic baskets Sector snapshots Agrochemicals: Attractive risk/reward for pesticides and potash Autos: Growth rebounds marginally with slipping profitability Banks: A modest NPL cycle in 11/12E; 2Q12 could be the fundamental turning points Building materials: Improving supply demand outlook Clean Energy-Nuclear/Wind: Defensive wind farms; potential turnaround of wind/nuclear power equipment makers Clean Energy-Solar/Lighting: solid growth for lighting (LED); cautious on solar Coal: Consolidations + railway bottleneck = supported price Conglomerates: Stock picks by themes Consumer discretionary: A soft landing in 2012 Consumer staples: Margins play catch up Diversified financials: Turnover at bottom, entry opportunity Healthcare: Favorable risk/reward amid global uncertainty Insurance: Lack of near-term catalysts until CPI peaks out; trough valuation provides good entry level Internet: Continually evolving models Machinery: Muted growth but different paths across products Metals: supply growth continue to drive stock performance Oil & Gas: Prefer upstream, gas exposure oil names, pure gas firms Ports: Prefer exposure to the Bohai Rim region; stocks price in some slowdown Power Utilities: Regaining power via change Property: Funding risk, asset write-down, & policies key focus Technology: Focusing on emerging industry leaders Telecom services: Two game changers—smartphone and TD-LTE Transport: Prefer carriers with higher domestic exposure |
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