<P><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">（一起分享）</SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">作者：裴明宪</SPAN></P><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; FONT-SIZE: 10.5pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-bidi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-font-kerning: 1.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: ZH-CN; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA">
<P style="TEXT-INDENT: 21pt; MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0" class=MsoNormal><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">如果你从五年前开始持有微软和花旗的股票，今天你的脸色一定很难看。从</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2002</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月到</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2007</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月，微软在纳斯达克市场的年化回报率为</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.6% </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">（包括股息，下同），而花旗集团在纽约证券交易所的年化回报率为</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3.9%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，还比不上美国国债的收益率。标准普尔</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">500</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">指数的同期年化收益率为</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">11%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，是微软的四倍多，花旗的近三倍。这两家超级大公司的表现如此之差，以至于媒体一天到晚猜测巴尔默（微软</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">CEO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">）和普林斯（花旗</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">CEO</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">）何时下台。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">如果从十年的长期看，微软的年化回报率为</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">6.2%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，花旗的年化回报率为</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5.7%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，略微超越了同期标准普尔</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">500</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">指数，似乎还算差强人意。不过，与</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">IT</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">界或金融界的同行比起来，这样的回报率就算不了什么了。在</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">IT</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">界，从</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1997</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年到</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2007</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年，苹果的股价上涨了</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">33</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">倍，雅虎上涨了</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">8.6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">倍，</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Oracle</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">上涨了</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.6</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">倍，而刚刚上市</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">3</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Google</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">已经上涨了</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">倍。微软的表现只能与</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">IBM</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">这种公认的大笨象相提并论，完全丧失了“成长股”的性质。在同一时期的金融界，花旗的表现算是中规中矩，与德意志银行、瑞士银行、巴克莱银行的表现相差无几，略微领先于美洲银行，大幅度落后于摩根士丹利、高盛和美林。微软和花旗的区别在于，微软从</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">7</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年前就开始落后了，而花旗的落后主要是最近</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的事情。几乎所有的综合性银行，在最近</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的回报率都大幅度击败了花旗。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">时光倒转回</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年，你会觉得微软是不可战胜的，只有寄希望于美国和欧洲的反垄断法能够予以制裁。微软通过强制捆绑</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">IE</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">浏览器打败了</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Netscape, </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">并且与</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Intel</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">结成所谓的“</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Wintel</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">同盟”，向全世界索取保护费。在纳斯达克泡沫的最高峰，微软的市值达到</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">5000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿美元，比尔</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">盖茨一人的身价就有</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1000</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿美元。当时的分析师认为，想在桌面软件市场打败微软是不可能的，而且它已经意识到了网络的重要性，推出了以</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">".Net"</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">为代表的网络服务平台。那些反对微软的人，只能把希望寄托在</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Linux</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">和</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Java</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">身上——前者必须打破微软对操作系统的垄断，后者则必须打败微软统一网络技术标准的美梦。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">与此同时，花旗似乎也将成为</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">21</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">世纪最伟大的金融寡头。在人类历史上，它第一次实现了“金融超级市潮的梦想，同时拥有一家伟大的投资银行（所罗门兄弟）、一家名列前茅的保险公司（旅行者集团）、一个规模巨大的资产管理与零售经纪部门（美邦），以及强大的公司银行和零售银行网点。你可以把所有金融事务都交给花旗去管理，从信用卡消费到遗产计划，从买卖股票到办理人寿保险，一切都由它包办。美国和欧洲有许多强大的零售商业银行，但它们的投资银行和公司银行业务没有花旗那样强大；华尔街有许多优秀的投资银行，但它们没有像花旗那样多的零售客户。恩格斯和列宁预言的一两个大金融集团主宰世界的可怕局面，似乎即将降临。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">可是今天，以上忧虑都被证明是杞人忧天。微软必须竭尽全力阻止自己的优秀工程师逃往</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Google</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">和苹果，并且在后两者的强大压力下，徒劳地推销着自己的</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> Live</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">搜索服务和</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Zune</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">音乐播放器；当</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Google</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">和苹果不断报出业绩增长</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">50%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的喜讯时，微软的利润每年只能增长</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">10%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">。花旗则已经成为了一个大笑话，它在国内零售网点的竞争中已经输给美洲银行，在投资银行的竞争中远远落后于高盛、摩根士丹利和美林，在国外商业银行的竞争中也没有占到什么便宜，而它的保险业务已经被卖掉了。现在，《华尔街日报》最关心的是花旗高管有几架私人飞机，拿着多高的薪水，什么时候才会被愤怒的股东一脚踢出大门。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">微软和花旗遇到什么挫折了吗？它们没有达到预定的目标吗？其实，它们没有输掉任何一场重要战役，基本完成了十年前的计划，却输掉了整个战争，被迫看着敌人站在领奖台上接受欢呼。军事家都知道，如果一个军事计划在政治上和战略上与现实脱节，那么战术上执行得再完美，它也终将失败。同样，在商业上，你可以达到一个又一个战术目标，完成一个又一个短期计划，最后却离战略目标越来越远。因为世界变化了，竞争对手也变化了，你却以为还生活在上个世纪。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">微软在桌面软件的统治地位仍然是不可取代的，</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Linux</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">到今天也没有对它构成实质性打击。在网络软件和系统服务领域，微软已经做的很好了，它的竞争对手</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black"><FONT face="Times New Roman"> </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">——开发</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Java</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">系统的</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Sun</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的财务表现非常糟糕，内部动荡不安；而它的</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">IE</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">浏览器和</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Visual Studio.Net</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">开发平台至今还占据着统治性地位。问题在于，以上优势没有转化为利润。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Windows</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">和</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Office</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的升级不再是摇钱树，而成为了成本焦点。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">IE</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的市场占有率超过</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">80%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">没有使微软自己的网络业务成为世界第一。而微软的竞争对手在做什么？</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Google</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">通过网络广告和授权搜索服务，每年可以盈利三十亿美元，而且还在以每年至少</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">40%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的速度增长；苹果推出了一个技术含量很低的</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">iPod, </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">一系列外观很酷的</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">iMac, </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">以及一款看上去很不靠谱的</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">iPhone, </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">就取得了每年</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">20</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿美元的利润，今年的利润肯定会超过</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">30</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿美元；</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Oracle</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">把自己从软件公司改造成了办公系统方案设计者，从竞争对手那里抄袭了许多创意，现在其利润正在以每年</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">30%</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的速度增长。这几个竞争对手都没有撼动微软的根基，即桌面操作系统和办公应用软件，也没有在网络浏览器或开发平台上与微软纠缠不清。可是它们的利润增长率就是比微软高，股价涨的就是比微软快。当然，现在微软的规模仍然是最大的，但“规模”对投资者和员工都是没有用的。一只市值</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2800</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿美元的大笨象，并不比三只市值</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">500</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿到</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">1500</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">亿美元的小天鹅更有价值，至少华尔街是这样认为的。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">花旗的故事就更可悲了。雄心勃勃的桑迪</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">威尔想让它成为“真正的全能银行”，却不知道全能银行的潮流已经过去了。花旗的规模实在太大了，大到拥有</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">33</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万名员工和</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">2.2</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">万亿美元资产，比世界上大部分国家的</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">GDP</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">还高。在仔细考虑之后，花旗出售了保险业务和资产管理业务，但是仍然无法灵活运转。它的竞争对手要聪明地多：美洲银行专注于开拓北美零售银行市场，在零售网点和</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">ATM</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">机数量上都远远超过花旗；瑞士银行和瑞士信贷银行基本放弃了商业银行业务，专注于投资银行和资产管理；德意志银行集中开拓投资银行、公司银行和自营交易；汇丰银行以欧洲和亚洲两个市场为轴心，在稳固商业银行的前提下小心地开拓投资银行。最后，花旗发现自己成了四不像，它仍然是全球最大的零售银行、最大的企业银行、最大的证券经纪人和最大的投资银行之一，却不知道自己的重点在哪里。所罗门兄弟曾经是让高盛畏惧的角色，到了花旗手里却保不住华尔街前五的位置；在中国这个增长最迅速的银行市场，花旗最早进入，却至今没有与任何大型本土银行结成战略伙伴，在利润丰厚的公司银行与投资银行市场进展甚微；在美国本土，它的地位也受到了美洲银行和摩根大通的日益侵蚀。桑迪</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">威尔必须面对一个现实：在金融业，规模已经成为了扼杀活力和利润率的缺陷，而不是提高效益的源泉。所谓一两个金融寡头霸占全球的梦想只活在十九世纪的政治宣传手册里。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">微软得到了它十年前希望的一切，花旗也差不多。可是它们当初没有意识到，即使占领这些目标，也只会使自己的情况恶化。比尔</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">盖茨和巴尔默可能会觉得</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> iPod</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">和</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">iPhone</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">是小孩子的玩具，可这些看起来很酷的东西比微软的软件更赚钱；</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Google</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">的在线广告也比微软十几万员工编出来的程序更赚钱。桑迪</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> -</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">威尔和普林斯也会觉得美洲银行和汇丰银行的人是一群大老粗，可是他们分别蚕食了花旗在国内和国外的市场，使得花旗现在即使在规模上也难以保证第一了。世界上最痛苦的事情莫过于完成了自己的计划，却发现南辕北辙。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">如果十年前的微软知道今天会发生什么，它肯定会停止对</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">IE</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">浏览器的毫无意义的推广（借此还可以躲过反垄断诉讼），把精力从开发新一代</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Windows</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">和</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman"> Office</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">转移到对网络搜索、广告和增值服务上来，并且早点开设消费电子产品部门，争取在苹果之前开发出</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">Zune. </FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">如果十年之前的花旗知道今天的金融界是什么样子，它肯定会对已有业务进行大刀阔斧的改造，集中开展利润丰厚的投资银行、公司银行和私人银行业务，对零售银行则采取重点开发的态势，不要试图在全世界每一个角落张开一个大摊子。视察的变化是不以人的意志为转移的，比尔</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">盖茨可能觉得桌面软件开发应该统治世界一千年，桑迪</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><FONT face="Times New Roman">-</FONT></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">威尔则会觉得一家大银行统治世界是天经地义，可惜市场不这么认为。</SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'"></SPAN><SPAN style="COLOR: black" lang=EN-US><BR></SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; COLOR: black; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">人们对华尔街有许多怨言，但有一件事情值得肯定：华尔街对事物的估值，在大部分情况下是基本正确的，小部分狂热的情况当然除外。华尔街通过对股票的估值告诉公司，它们现在做的事情是否有意义，投资者是否对此感到高兴。连续五年的原地踏步，使得微软和花旗在华尔街面前不那么自信了。维持和提高股价，一向是支持公司管理层进行改革的首要动力。在股价低落长达五年之后，这两家公司总该做些什么了。赢得战役的人不一定赢得战争，在任何时候，正确的战略都是商业中最重要的事情。</SPAN></P>
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