First quarter bank results show earnings growth is increasingly challenged
across Asia. Three years of rising leverage has resulted in greater funding
competition; more onerous capital & reserve demands; and rising expense
pressure, at a point in the cycle when loan growth & fees are likely to slow.
 Some pressures are cyclical, others structural. China’s savings should
continue shifting into non-deposit/structured products, similar to the rise of
US money market accounts. More broadly, Asia faces disintermediation via
capital markets & new contenders from non-banks, foreign or small banks.
 Deceleration & disintermediation favors a balance of “Incumbents” with
strong deposit franchises that protect NIMs (ICBC/SCB/Mandiri) & fund
growth; and (ii) “Contenders” with a growth angle supporting returns, be it
rising CASA (Yes Bk) or pricing-power via niche focus (Minsheng/SECB).
 Those twin headwinds also support our more positive view on DM Asia
banks, where returns already reflect these issues. Multiple expansion is less
a driver than earnings momentum & upgrades, as NIMs improve across HK
(BOCHK/HSBC), Singapore (DBS), & Taiwan (Chinatrust/Mega), vs. more
acute compression in China & ASEAN. “DM” banks make up 30% of the
portfolio, including a 10% weighting in HSBC.
 Korea & Aus are more developed, & wholesale-funded, markets seeing NIM
compression. Credit quality risk in Korea is shifting from corp to household,
an area where non-banks have taken share. Disintermediation has a history
of adding risk in Korea, be it ITCs, card co’s (00s), & recently MSBs.
 Capital generation was a +ve theme across 1Q results, as slower growth
& sustained low credit costs support capital ratios. Banks like DBS & Hana
face questions about capital calls post-M&A, as do smaller banks in China;
in each case, Tier 1 has come in slightly better which is likely to continue.
 Regulatory change poses an additional challenge as Asia prepares for Basel
3. Conservation buffers could result in more conservative dividend payouts
while countercyclical requirements could penalize growth. That said, Asia
could benefit from more sophisticated ways to quantify risk (IRB).