Table of Contents
Confident in the consumer cavalry.........................................3
Risks to our strategy..............................................................17
Global emerging markets model portfolio by country ........20
Global emerging markets model portfolio by sector...........21
Key Trades ..............................................................................22
China: Waiting for a bigger stimulus ....................................32
Brazil: Policy risk takes Center Stage ..................................34
South Korea: Turning more cautious ...................................36
Taiwan: Tech headwinds and possible rate hike.................38
India: Surprise rate cut; S&P downgrade.............................40
Russia: Itchy foot syndrome .................................................42
South Africa: Starts outperforming ......................................44
Mexico: Let’s Get Defensive..................................................46
Malaysia: Bersih 3.0 rally highlights political risk ...............48
Indonesia: Running on cheap fuel ........................................50
Thailand: Earnings momentum to help outperform ...........52
Poland: Nice place, shame the neighbors dysfunctional ...54
Turkey: Between Iraq and a hard place ................................56
Philippines: Encouraging start to 1Q earnings season ......58
Egypt: Drifting lower in policy vacuum ................................60
Extended markers ..................................................................63
Consensus Asset Allocation .................................................65
Hindsight trades: What has worked......................................66
Composite valuation indicators ............................................68
EMBIG100................................................................................72
Emerging Markets Strategy Dashboards .............................80