Executive Summary 3
— Bottom up and Top Down analysis of inventories .................................................5
— The risks around our analysis view.......................................................................6
The Chinese working capital and inventory cycle 8
— Top Down ............................................................................................................9
— Top down conclusion .........................................................................................16
— Bottom-up ..........................................................................................................16
Consumer Discretionary 21
— Auto ...................................................................................................................21
— Apparel – A........................................................................................................23
— Retailing - A .......................................................................................................24
— Retailing - H .......................................................................................................25
— Sportswear and Department stores....................................................................28
— White Goods ......................................................................................................29
Consumer Staples 30
— Food and beverages ..........................................................................................30
Energy 32
— Oil, Gas and Chemical - H..................................................................................32
— Basic Chemicals – A share ................................................................................35
— Coal ...................................................................................................................36
Financials 38
— Residential Property...........................................................................................38
Industrial 43
— Railway ..............................................................................................................43
— Construction Machinery......................................................................................44
Information Technology 45
— Telecom Equipment ...........................................................................................45
— Electronics .........................................................................................................47
Materials 49
— Cement ..............................................................................................................49
— Steel & construction ...........................................................................................50
— Non-ferrous Metals.............................................................................................51
Utilities 53
— Power sector......................................................................................................53
Global Commentary 54
— Taiwan Hardware...............................................................................................54
— US IT Hardware .................................................................................................55
— US LED Capital Equipment and Material............................................................56
— US Chemicals ....................................................................................................57
— Japan Chemical .................................................................................................59
— Japan Machinery................................................................................................61
— Japan Steel........................................................................................................62
— US Paper & Forest Products ..............................................................................63