Still positive for the rest of the year
􀂄 Growth data looking slightly better; liquidity positive, valuations attractive
We think the fundamentals point to further strength in Q4. Our UBS base case is
that we don’t hit the US ‘fiscal cliff’. If this proves correct, we think the growth
outlook, liquidity environment, current sentiment/technicals and valuations point to
rising markets in Q4. We have trimmed our year end index target from 580 to 560
(MSCI Asia ex Japan) reflecting lower eps than when we set that target last year.
􀂄 Preference for cyclicals over defensives; Taiwan from u/w to neutral.
We continue to favour cyclicals generally over defensive stocks. At the country
level, partly reflecting this, we have taken Taiwan back to neutral from u/w, though
prefer Korea over Taiwan and Japan among the big cyclical markets.
􀂄 Hong Kong to u/w from neutral; Philippines to neutral from u/w
We have taken Hong Kong underweight reflecting that some drivers of recent
outperformance may fade – the relative earnings picture, yield compression versus
Singapore and peak relative valuations compared to China. We have also taken the
Philippines back to neutral from underweight after a combination of
underperformance and relatively good earnings caused an 8% de-rating of this
market. We still find it expensive, but less so than it was.
􀂄 Still over weight India, China
We remain overweight India, albeit less bullish than three months ago, and China,
where our overweight has not worked, but our economists continue to expect a
cyclical pick up. No change in our other underweights – Indonesia, Malaysia or
Australia, or our neutrals on Singapore or Thailand.