Table of contents 2
Executive Summary: Riding the Chinese construction waves 3
Understanding the Chinese construction cycle 6
Measuring the Chinese construction cycle 7
The effects of government policies on the construction cycle 11
Forecasting the Chinese construction cycle 13
Implications for commodity markets 20
Implications for currencies 25
Implications for Chinese property FAI growth and GDP 26
Appendix A: Chinese property sector data, and why we are comfortable with it 27
Appendix B: Quantifying the Chinese government policies towards the property sector 29
Appendix C: Social housing 31
Appendix D: Scenario and variable assumptions 33
Appendix E: Equations, identities, and regression results 35
Disclosure Appendix 41