October 17, 2012

Global Roundtable

Global Energy: Oil – Under-delivery and technological innovation split the industry

Exploration and shale revolutionsovercome need for demand rationingThe current oil market is relatively tight, withinventories 8 mnbls below the five-year average,due to the impact of the Iran sanctions(1 mnbls/d), production issues in Syria and Sudan(600 kbls/d) and overall poor non-OPEC supplydelivery excl the US. However, the advent of shaleoil and ultra-deepwater are likely to lead to a morebalanced, rather than structurally tight market.
Low OPEC spare capacity points tovolatility in the short termWe estimate that OPEC spare capacity is currentlybelow 1 mnbls/d, and expect demand to pick upseasonally in 4Q12. This implies that we are likelyto experience a volatile market over the next threemonths with the skew to the upside.

2013-15 market likely to softenNon-OPEC supply growth is likely to pick up in2013-14 to over 1 mnbls/d, on our estimates, foronly the second time in over a decade. Thisshould lead to a moderate softening in the oilmarket, leading spare capacity up to 2.5 mnbls/d.

The industry is going at two speedsWe have never seen a bigger divergence of outlookin the global energy industry. This is exemplified bya substantial decline in returns and cash generationfor most of the legacy players (the majors currentlyneed US$116/bl to be free cash flow neutral aftercapex and dividends), while an unprecedented setof high-return investment opportunities areopening up to independent E&Ps and onlymarginally to some of the Majors.
New basins and unconventional liquidsremain our key investment themesWe indentify five key global investment themes:shale oil with scale, high-return growth, frontierexploration, infrastructure winners, and tighteningoil services capacity. Our global preferences are:ENI, BG, EOG Resources, Pioneer NaturalResources, Noble Energy, HollyFrontier, ONGC,Novatek, Panoro, Salamander, Aker Solutions,Technip, Schoeller-Bleckmann, Halliburton,Oceaneering and Basic Energy Services.

Downside risk in case of hard landingThe key risk to our call on crude prices is lowerthan-expected GDP growth.