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| 文件名: 2012-11-20_摩根士丹利亚洲_FX 2013 Outlook The Year of JPY Weakness.pdf | |
| 资料下载链接地址: https://bbs.pinggu.org/a-1216325.html | |
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Buy USD/JPY: Target 92.00
With the BoJ likely to engage in a much more aggressive easing stance, this should catalyze JPY weakening. Sell EUR/USD: Entry 1.3400, Target 1.2000 Either the EUR needs to correct lower to support the periphery, or it risks breaking apart, in our view. Sell AUD/USD: Target 0.9000 As growth and rate differentials play against Australia, foreign investors are likely to rethink their safe-haven plays. Sell JPY Against AXJ Basket: Target 90.00 Export growth will shift from emerging Asian economies to developed ones as the JPY weakens against its peers. Sell EUR/CAD: Target 1.2000 US growth outperformance and a divergence in interest-rate paths are likely to prompt further CAD gains. Buy USD/SEK: Target 7.2500 Heavy exposure into a waning Eurozone, weak economic data, and further Riksbank rate cuts will weigh on SEK. Buy EUR/CZK: Entry 25.20 Target 26.50 We believe the Czech National Bank will increasingly look to foster CZK weakness in order to stimulate the economy. Buy MXN/JPY: Entry 5.9700 Target 6.3000 Strong fundamentals combined with a reform effort should keep MXN on an upward trend next year. Sell TRY/RUB: Entry 17.80 Target 16.50 Turkey’s central bank will likely lean against currency gains, while Russia’s will likely be tolerant of them. |
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